Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

30/03/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund).

: Bundesliga - Round 27
Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.78	0.81
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Total shots
18	12
Shots on target
7	3
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
6	4
Passes
75% (318/425)	79% (423/534)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Expected Goals (xG)
2.78	0.81
xG on target (xGOT)
2.54	0.47
Total shots
18	12
Shots on target
7	3
Shots off target
5	4
Blocked Shots
6	5
Shots inside the Box
10	9
Shots outside the Box
8	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
2	0
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
6	4
Touches in opposition box
24	28
Through passes
100% (1/1)	0% (0/1)
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
8	10
Passes
75% (318/425)	79% (423/534)
Long passes
34% (24/71)	45% (24/53)
Passes in final third
70% (100/142)	66% (84/128)
Crosses
38% (6/16)	35% (7/20)
Expected assists (xA)
3.11	1.18
Fouls
10	8
Tackles
61% (14/23)	41% (11/27)
Duels won
61	62
Clearances Total
26	28
Interceptions
12	14
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
0.47	2.54
Goals prevented
-0.53	-0.46

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Beier M. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
42', 2 - 0, Can E. ⚽, Schlotterbeck N. (A),
45', Couto Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Couto Y. ↓, Svensson D. ↑,
65', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
66', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
72', 3 - 0, Beier M. ⚽, Schlotterbeck N. (A),
76', 3 - 1, Nebel P. ⚽,
79', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
79', Ozcan S. ↓, Sule N. ↑,
88', Nebel P. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
88', Caci A. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
89', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
90', Adeyemi K. ↓, Gittens J. ↑,
90+1', Anton W. ↓, Bensebaini R. ↑,

Chances of winning

Borussia Dortmund
57.4%

Draw
23.3%

Mainz
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

23.8%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

25.9%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1%)

Borussia Dortmund - Mainz Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.71)	4.1 ↑ (4.04)	4.97 ↑ (4.83)	4.3% (4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund - Mainz?

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 17 - 43.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 18 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 30.6% – 61.8%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 1.
Recent matches Borussia D is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Mainz in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
In this match Borussia D is a favorite.
There will not play in Borussia D: Mane F. (Muscle Injury) Nmecha F. (Knee Injury) Sabitzer M. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Mwene P. (Yellow Cards)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Borussia D won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 32:23 (average 1.6:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Borussia D won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:13 (average 1.4:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Borussia Dortmund won against Mainz?

Borussia Dortmund has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Borussia Dortmund?

Mainz has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Borussia Dortmund - Mainz were as follows:

09.11.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:1

11.05.2024 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:0

19.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 1:1

27.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 2:2

25.01.2023 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 1:2

Latest results of Borussia Dortmund

15.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund 2:0 ✺

12.03.2025 Lille - Borussia Dortmund 1:2 ✺

08.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Augsburg 0:1 ✺

04.03.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Lille 1:1 ✺

01.03.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Mainz

15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2 ✺

07.03.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz 1:3 ✺

01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺

22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺

16.02.2025 Heidenheim - Mainz 0:2 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	B. Monchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	FC Koln	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	St. Pauli	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Which TV channels are streaming of Borussia Dortmund - Mainz?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 3
Angola	Z Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Ultra
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Vision+
Indonesia	iNews, K-Vision, RCTI+, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Flow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Nova Sport
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, PPTV Sports
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball