Elena Rybakina vs Madison Keys: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

19/01/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Melbourne Park (Melbourne).

WTA - SINGLES: Australian Open (Australia), hard - 1/8-finals

Match Stats


Aces
3	4
Double Faults
6	6
1st Serve Percentage
55%	70%
1st Serve Points Won
74% (35/47)	61% (38/62)
2nd Serve Points Won
34% (13/38)	48% (13/27)
Break Points Saved
44% (4/9)	69% (9/13)
Average 1st Serve Speed
171 km/h	170 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
143 km/h	123 km/h
1st Return Points Won
39% (24/62)	26% (12/47)
2nd Return Points Won
52% (14/27)	66% (25/38)
Break Points Converted
31% (4/13)	56% (5/9)
Winners
22	27
Unforced Errors
38	31
Net Points Won
77% (10/13)	67% (2/3)
Service Points Won
56% (48/85)	57% (51/89)
Return Points Won
43% (38/89)	44% (37/85)
Total Points Won
49% (86/174)	51% (88/174)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
1	0
Service Games Won
62% (8/13)	67% (8/12)
Return Games Won
33% (4/12)	38% (5/13)
Total Games Won
48% (12/25)	52% (13/25)

Chances of winning

Elena Rybakina
58.7%

Madison Keys
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elena Rybakina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Madison Keys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Madison Keys than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Elena Rybakina - Madison Keys Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.73)		2.3 ↑ (2.13)	5.2% (5%)

What is the prediction for Elena Rybakina - Madison Keys?

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Rybakina will win (votes: 28 - 75.7%). Keys will win (votes: 9 - 24.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rybakina: 61.9% – 89.5%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Rybakina is ranked WTA: 7. Keys is ranked WTA: 14.
Rybakina is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Keys in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).
Rybakina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.
Last 4 head-to-head matches Rybakina won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.3:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Elena Rybakina won against Madison Keys?

Elena Rybakina has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Madison Keys won against Elena Rybakina?

Madison Keys has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Elena Rybakina - Madison Keys were as follows:

25.03.2024 Madison Keys - Elena Rybakina 0:2

03.10.2022 Madison Keys - Elena Rybakina 1:2

Latest results of Elena Rybakina

17.01.2025 Elena Rybakina - Dayana Yastremska 2:0 ✺

15.01.2025 Elena Rybakina - Iva Jovic 2:0 ✺

13.01.2025 Elena Rybakina - Emerson Jones 2:0 ✺

03.01.2025 Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek 0:2 ✺

31.12.2024 Elena Rybakina - Laura Siegemund 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Madison Keys

18.01.2025 Madison Keys - Danielle Collins 2:0 ✺

16.01.2025 Madison Keys - Elena Gabriela Ruse 2:1 ✺

14.01.2025 Madison Keys - Ann Li 2:0 ✺

11.01.2025 Jessica Pegula - Madison Keys 1:2 ✺

09.01.2025 Madison Keys - Ludmilla Samsonova Samsonova L. retired ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Stephens S.	2 : 0
2	Kartal S.	Bouzas Maneiro J.	0 : 2
3	Pera B.	Maria T.	0 : 2
4	Tauson C.	Noskova L. (29)	2 : 1
5	Frech M. (23)	Kudermetova P. (Q)	2 : 0
6	Blinkova A.	Saville D. (WC)	2 : 1
7	Uchijima M.	Linette M.	2 : 1
8	Bouzkova M.	Andreeva M. (14)	0 : 2
9	Shnaider D. (12)	Cocciaretto E.	2 : 0
10	Tomljanovic A. (WC)	Krueger A.	2 : 1
11	Dart H. (LL)	Fett J. (Q)	2 : 1
12	Parry D.	Vekic D. (18)	0 : 2
13	Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)	Yuan Y.	2 : 1
14	Zidansek T. (Q)	Potapova A.	0 : 2
15	Siegemund L.	Baptiste H.	2 : 1
16	Todoni A. A. (Q)	Zheng Q. (5)	0 : 2
17	Gauff C. (3)	Kenin S.	2 : 0
18	Jeanjean L. (Q)	Burrage J.	0 : 2
19	Bucsa C.	Paquet C. (WC)	2 : 0
20	Starodubtseva Y.	Fernandez L. (30)	0 : 2
21	Muchova K. (20)	Podoroska N.	2 : 0
22	Osaka N.	Garcia C.	2 : 1
23	Erjavec V. (Q)	Lamens S.	0 : 2
24	Bencic B.	Ostapenko J. (16)	2 : 0
25	Badosa P. (11)	Wang Xin.	2 : 0
26	Sonmez Z.	Gibson T. (WC)	1 : 2
27	Niemeier J.	Chwalinska M. (Q)	2 : 0
28	Hibino N. (Q)	Kostyuk M. (17)	1 : 2
29	Samsonova L. (25)	Rakhimova K.	2 : 0
30	Rus A.	Danilovic O.	0 : 2
31	Mertens E.	Golubic V. (Q)	2 : 1
32	Joint M. (WC)	Pegula J. (7)	0 : 2
33	Rybakina E. (6)	Jones E. (WC)	2 : 0
34	Parrizas-Diaz N.	Jovic I. (WC)	0 : 2
35	Kovinic D.	Sun L.	2 : 0
36	Sherif M.	Yastremska D. (32)	0 : 2
37	Keys M. (19)	Li A.	2 : 0
38	Begu I.	Ruse G. (Q)	0 : 2
39	Minnen G.	Aiava D. (Q)	1 : 2
40	Snigur D. (Q)	Collins D. (10)	0 : 2
41	Haddad Maia B. (15)	Riera J. (Q)	2 : 1
42	Zheng S.	Andreeva E.	0 : 2
43	Kudermetova V.	Gadecki O.	2 : 0
44	Marino R.	Boulter K. (22)	1 : 2
45	Svitolina E. (28)	Cirstea S.	2 : 0
46	Bejlek S. (Q)	Dolehide C.	0 : 2
47	Townsend T.	Zarazua R.	1 : 2
48	Wei S. (Q)	Paolini J. (4)	0 : 2
49	Navarro E. (8)	Stearns P.	2 : 1
50	Wang Xiy.	Grabher J.	2 : 0
51	Kalinina A.	Jabeur O.	0 : 2
52	Osorio C.	Sakkari M. (31)	2 : 1
53	Putintseva Y. (24)	Avanesyan E.	2 : 1
54	Zhang S. (WC)	Kessler M.	2 : 0
55	Bondar A.	Wang Y.	1 : 2
56	Tomova V.	Kasatkina D. (9)	0 : 2
57	Lys E. (LL)	Birrell K. (Q)	2 : 0
58	Gracheva V.	McNally C.	2 : 0
59	Martic P. (LL)	Cristian J.	1 : 2
60	Bronzetti L.	Azarenka V. (21)	2 : 0
61	Alexandrova E. (26)	Raducanu E.	0 : 2
62	Carle M. L.	Anisimova A.	0 : 2
63	Sramkova R.	Volynets K.	2 : 1
64	Siniakova K.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bouzas Maneiro J.	2 : 0
2	Maria T.	Tauson C.	0 : 2
3	Frech M. (23)	Blinkova A.	2 : 1
4	Uchijima M.	Andreeva M. (14)	1 : 2
5	Shnaider D. (12)	Tomljanovic A.	2 : 0
6	Dart H.	Vekic D. (18)	1 : 2
7	Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)	Potapova A.	2 : 1
8	Siegemund L.	Zheng Q. (5)	2 : 0
9	Gauff C. (3)	Burrage J.	2 : 0
10	Bucsa C.	Fernandez L. (30)	1 : 2
11	Muchova K. (20)	Osaka N.	1 : 2
12	Lamens S.	Bencic B.	0 : 2
13	Badosa P. (11)	Gibson T.	2 : 0
14	Niemeier J.	Kostyuk M. (17)	0 : 2
15	Samsonova L. (25)	Danilovic O.	0 : 2
16	Mertens E.	Pegula J. (7)	0 : 2
17	Rybakina E. (6)	Jovic I.	2 : 0
18	Kovinic D.	Yastremska D. (32)	0 : 2
19	Keys M. (19)	Ruse G.	2 : 1
20	Aiava D.	Collins D. (10)	1 : 2
21	Haddad Maia B. (15)	Andreeva E.	2 : 0
22	Kudermetova V.	Boulter K. (22)	2 : 1
23	Svitolina E. (28)	Dolehide C.	2 : 0
24	Zarazua R.	Paolini J. (4)	0 : 2
25	Navarro E. (8)	Wang Xiy.	2 : 1
26	Jabeur O.	Osorio C.	2 : 0
27	Putintseva Y. (24)	Zhang S.	2 : 0
28	Wang Y.	Kasatkina D. (9)	0 : 2
29	Lys E.	Gracheva V.	2 : 1
30	Cristian J.	Bronzetti L.	2 : 0
31	Raducanu E.	Anisimova A.	2 : 0
32	Sramkova R.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Tauson C.	2 : 0
2	Frech M. (23)	Andreeva M. (14)	1 : 2
3	Shnaider D. (12)	Vekic D. (18)	1 : 2
4	Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)	Siegemund L.	2 : 0
5	Gauff C. (3)	Fernandez L. (30)	2 : 0
6	Osaka N. (RET.)	Bencic B.	0 : 1
7	Badosa P. (11)	Kostyuk M. (17)	2 : 1
8	Danilovic O.	Pegula J. (7)	2 : 0
9	Rybakina E. (6)	Yastremska D. (32)	2 : 0
10	Keys M. (19)	Collins D. (10)	2 : 0
11	Haddad Maia B. (15)	Kudermetova V.	0 : 2
12	Svitolina E. (28)	Paolini J. (4)	2 : 1
13	Navarro E. (8)	Jabeur O.	2 : 1
14	Putintseva Y. (24)	Kasatkina D. (9)	0 : 2
15	Lys E.	Cristian J.	2 : 1
16	Raducanu E.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Andreeva M. (14)	2 : 0
2	Vekic D. (18)	Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)	0 : 2
3	Gauff C. (3)	Bencic B.	2 : 1
4	Badosa P. (11)	Danilovic O.	2 : 0
5	Rybakina E. (6)	Keys M. (19)	1 : 2
6	Kudermetova V.	Svitolina E. (28)	0 : 2
7	Navarro E. (8)	Kasatkina D. (9)	2 : 1
8	Lys E.	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)	2 : 1
2	Gauff C. (3)	Badosa P. (11)	0 : 2
3	Keys M. (19)	Svitolina E. (28)	2 : 1
4	Navarro E. (8)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Badosa P. (11)	2 : 0
2	Keys M. (19)	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 1

Final

1

Sabalenka A. (1)

Keys M. (19)

1 : 2

Which TV channels are streaming of Elena Rybakina - Madison Keys?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	Max
Germany	Discovery+(Ger)
Hungary	Max
Italy	Discovery+
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Serbia	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK