Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Result
2:0
29/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Quimper, hard - 1/8-finals
Mackenzie McDonald - Roberto Carballes Baena - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
59
Double Faults
26
1st serve percentage
58%59%
1st serve points won
76% (25/33)80% (33/41)
2nd serve points won
58% (14/24)24% (7/29)
Break Points Saved
75% (3/4)63% (5/8)
1st return points won
20% (8/41)24% (8/33)
2nd return points won
76% (22/29)42% (10/24)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)25% (1/4)
Winners
2819
Unforced errors
2319
Net points won
64% (7/11)75% (6/8)
Service Points Won
68% (39/57)57% (40/70)
Return Points Won
43% (30/70)32% (18/57)
Total Points Won
54% (69/127)46% (58/127)
Last 10 balls
82
Match points saved
00
Service games won
90% (9/10)70% (7/10)
Return games won
30% (3/10)10% (1/10)
Total games won
60% (12/20)40% (8/20)

Chances of winning


Mackenzie McDonald
62%
Roberto Carballes Baena
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
67.8% 32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1% 33.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mackenzie McDonald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mackenzie McDonald's form might have worsened.
  • Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roberto Carballes Baena's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
  • Mackenzie McDonald - Roberto Carballes Baena Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.51
    (1.37)

    2.45
    (2.87)
    7.2%
    (8%)
    Preview Facts
    • McDonald is ranked ATP: 113. Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 147.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • McDonald may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • McDonald could have a small edge in this match.
    • In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Mackenzie McDonald
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Kovacevic A. (1)Tabur C.2 : 0
    2Arnaboldi F. (Q)Droguet T.0 : 2
    3Molcan A.Added D.2 : 0
    4van Assche L.Shevchenko A. (5)2 : 0
    5Martinez P. (3)Bouquier A.2 : 0
    6Gueymard Wayenburg S.Lokoli L. (Q)2 : 0
    7Martin D. (LL)Harris B.0 : 2
    8Paire B. (WC)Bonzi B. (7)0 : 2
    9Basilashvili N. (6)Ghazouani Durand Y. (Q)2 : 0
    10Martineau M. (Q)Faurel T. (WC)0 : 2
    11Kasnikowski M. (Q)Engel J.0 : 2
    12Huesler M.Halys Q. (4)2 : 0
    13McDonald M. (8)Echargui M.2 : 0
    14Carballes Baena R.Geerts M. (Alt)2 : 0
    15Lajal M.Kotov P. (Q)1 : 2
    16Bertola R. (Alt)Mannarino A. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Kovacevic A. (1)Droguet T.0 : 2
    2Molcan A.van Assche L.0 : 2
    3Martinez P. (3)Gueymard Wayenburg S.0 : 2
    4Harris B.Bonzi B. (7)0 : 2
    5Basilashvili N. (6)Faurel T.0 : 2
    6Engel J.Huesler M.1 : 2
    7McDonald M. (8)Carballes Baena R.2 : 0
    8Kotov P.Bertola R.0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Droguet T.van Assche L.0 : 2
    2Gueymard Wayenburg S.Bonzi B. (7)2 : 1
    3Faurel T.Huesler M.0 : 2
    4McDonald M. (RET.) (8)Bertola R.0 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1van Assche L.Gueymard Wayenburg S.2 : 1
    2Huesler M.Bertola R.0 : 2

    Final
    1van Assche L.Bertola R.2 : 1
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