Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

11/05/2025 at 00:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka).

: J1 League - Round 16

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.88	0.53
Ball Possession
61%	39%
Total shots
12	13
Shots on target
4	5
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
2	3
Passes
87% (471/544)	77% (268/349)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.88	0.53
xG on target (xGOT)
1.73	1.96
Total shots
12	13
Shots on target
4	5
Shots off target
4	5
Blocked Shots
4	3
Shots inside the Box
10	9
Shots outside the Box
2	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	2
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
2	3
Touches in opposition box
22	28
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
17	8
Passes
87% (471/544)	77% (268/349)
Long passes
40% (17/43)	36% (21/58)
Passes in final third
77% (98/128)	65% (101/155)
Crosses
19% (3/16)	29% (5/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.15	0.82
Throw-ins
27	17
Fouls
8	17
Tackles
100% (5/5)	55% (11/20)
Duels won
43	52
Clearances
18	19
Interceptions
2	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
1.96	1.73
Goals prevented
-0.04	-0.27

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Nishimura T. ⚽, Na Sang-Ho (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Haneda K. ↓, Sumiyoshi J. ↑,
59', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
59', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Duke M. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Kitagawa K. (Pen),
66', Matsuzaki K. ↓, Yajima S. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Hayashi K. ⚽,
74', Kitazume K. ↓, Yamahara R. ↑,
78', Kitagawa K. ↓, Douglas Tanque ↑,
78', Uno Z. ↓, Nakahara H. ↑,
82', Sento K. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
82', Nishimura T. ↓, Numata T. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Douglas Tanque ⚽,
90+2', Duke M. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Shimizu S-Pulse
30.2%

Draw
31.1%

Machida Zelvia
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27.8%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

27.4%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.71)	2.99 ↓ (3.38)	2.45 ↓ (2.5)	6.2% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 and 10).
Recent performances by Shimizu have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Machida Zelvia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Shimizu S-Pulse won against Machida Zelvia?

Shimizu S-Pulse has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Shimizu S-Pulse?

Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia were as follows:

19.08.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia 3:2

21.05.2023 Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse 2:1

Latest results of Shimizu S-Pulse

06.05.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:0 ✺

03.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Nagoya Grampus 0:3 ✺

29.04.2025 Tokyo - Shimizu S-Pulse 0:2 ✺

20.04.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka 3:1 ✺

16.04.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Shimizu S-Pulse 2:3 ✺

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

07.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

03.05.2025 Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia 1:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia 1:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Machida Zelvia - Shonan Bellmare 0:1 ✺

20.04.2025 Vissel Kobe - Machida Zelvia 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	19	13	1	5	29:15	14	40
2	Kyoto	20	10	4	6	30:22	8	34
3	Urawa Reds	21	9	7	5	26:20	6	34
4	Kashiwa Reysol	19	9	7	3	22:17	5	34
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	2	6	20:14	6	32
6	Vissel Kobe	18	9	3	6	23:19	4	30
7	Kawasaki Frontale	18	7	8	3	30:19	11	29
8	Cerezo Osaka	20	8	5	7	30:26	4	29
9	Shimizu S-Pulse	19	7	4	8	26:26	0	25
10	Machida	19	7	4	8	22:23	-1	25
11	Okayama	19	6	6	7	16:17	-1	24
12	Gamba Osaka	19	7	3	9	23:27	-4	24
13	Verdy	19	6	6	7	13:18	-5	24
14	Nagoya Grampus	19	6	5	8	24:26	-2	23
15	Avispa Fukuoka	19	6	5	8	15:19	-4	23
16	Shonan Bellmare	19	6	4	9	14:23	-9	22
17	Yokohama FC	19	5	4	10	13:20	-7	19
18	FC Tokyo	18	5	4	9	17:26	-9	19
19	Albirex Niigata	18	3	7	8	19:27	-8	16
20	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	3	5	10	18:26	-8	14

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League

Which TV channels are streaming of Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan