Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Japan J1 League Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka
Result
3:1
20/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : J1 League - Round 30
Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.051.24
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
1217
Shots on target
68
Big Chances
53
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
78% (315/403)78% (336/433)
Yellow Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
2.051.24
xG on target (xGOT)
3.321.55
Total shots
1217
Shots on target
68
Shots off target
68
Blocked Shots
01
Shots inside the Box
1112
Shots outside the Box
15
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
53
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
2020
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
911
Passes
78% (315/403)78% (336/433)
Long passes
36% (23/64)37% (21/57)
Passes in final third
61% (83/136)67% (82/122)
Crosses
26% (5/19)33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.950.81
Throw-ins
2319
Fouls
1110
Tackles
55% (6/11)60% (9/15)
Duels won
4754
Clearances
2426
Interceptions
154
Errors leading to shot
20
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
73
xGOT faced
1.553.32
Goals prevented
0.550.32

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 17', 1 - 0, Shoji G. , Na Sang-Ho (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Fujio S. 🟨,
  • 56', Okunuki K. , Welton ,
  • 59', Fujio S. , Oh Se-Hun ,
  • 59', Na Sang-Ho , Sento K. ,
  • 61', 1 - 1, Hummet D. , Welton (A),
  • 75', Juan Alano , Meshino R. ,
  • 78', 2 - 1, Hayashi K. ,
  • 79', Mae H. , Lavi N. ,
  • 81', Fukuoka S. , Kurokawa K. ,
  • 82', Suzuki T. , Mito R. ,
  • 90', 3 - 1, Nishimura T. (Pen),
  • 90+5', Nakayama Y. , Shimoda H. ,
  • 90+5', Nishimura T. , Numata T. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Machida Zelvia
52.7%
Draw
26.8%
Gamba Osaka
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55.1% 25.2% 19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58% 23.9% 18.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
  • Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.79
    (1.71)
    3.51
    (3.74)
    4.6
    (4.81)
    6.2%
    (5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka?
  • Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 17 - 63%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 44.8%81.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 12).
    • Machida Zelvia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Gamba Osaka is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Machida Zelvia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Machida Zelvia is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Soma Y. (Yellow Cards)
    • There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Abe S. (Red Card) Higashiguchi M. (Health problems) Jebali I. (Yellow Cards) Yamashita R. (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Knee Injury) Nishimura T. (Inactive)
    • We predict that Machida Zelvia will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).
    • Including home match between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka were as follows:
    02.04.2025 Gamba Osaka - Machida Zelvia 0:1
    30.06.2024 Gamba Osaka - Machida Zelvia 1:3
    24.02.2024 Machida Zelvia - Gamba Osaka 1:1
    Latest results of Machida Zelvia
    Latest results of Gamba Osaka
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers32204852:282464
    2Vissel Kobe32186843:271660
    3Kyoto31168754:332156
    4Kashiwa Reysol311511543:291456
    5Machida32167948:331555
    6Sanfrecce Hiroshima32167937:221555
    7Kawasaki Frontale31149855:401551
    8Urawa Reds321310939:32749
    9Gamba Osaka321541346:47-149
    10Cerezo Osaka3111101048:45343
    11Shimizu S-Pulse3210101234:38-440
    12Okayama321171428:34-640
    13FC Tokyo311171333:42-940
    14Avispa Fukuoka329101331:37-637
    15Nagoya Grampus32991438:47-936
    16Verdy32991420:35-1536
    17Yokohama F. Marinos31771729:41-1228
    18Yokohama FC31771720:36-1628
    19Shonan Bellmare31671828:55-2725
    20Albirex Niigata32491929:54-2521

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League

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