Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/10/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq).

: Ligue 1 - Round 7
Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.68	1.44
Ball Possession
38%	62%
Total shots
9	17
Shots on target
3	5
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
3	5
Passes
82% (314/382)	91% (601/658)
Yellow Cards
1	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68	1.44
xG on target (xGOT)
0.40	1.37
Total shots
9	17
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
2	7
Blocked Shots
4	5
Shots inside the Box
8	8
Shots outside the Box
1	9
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
3	5
Touches in opposition box
31	22
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
12	11
Passes
82% (314/382)	91% (601/658)
Long passes
58% (25/43)	63% (20/32)
Passes in final third
69% (75/108)	76% (100/131)
Crosses
40% (6/15)	20% (2/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.38	0.76
Throw-ins
17	12
Fouls
11	12
Tackles
50% (10/20)	67% (6/9)
Duels won
44	36
Clearances
21	17
Interceptions
12	6
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
1.37	0.40
Goals prevented
0.37	-0.60

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Hernandez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Mayulu S. ↓, Vitinha ↑,
59', Barcola B. ↓, Mendes N. ↑,
59', Mbaye I. ↓, Hakimi A. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Mendes N. ⚽,
66', Bentaleb N. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
66', Haraldsson H. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
68', Hernandez L. ↓, Zabarnyi I. ↑,
76', Meunier T. ↓, Santos T. ↑,
76', Giroud O. ↓, Igamane H. ↑,
81', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Mbappe E. ⚽, Igamane H. (A),
88', Andre B. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Lille
22.9%

Draw
24.7%

Paris Saint-Germain
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

22%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

21%

60.6%

Lille - Paris Saint-Germain Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (4.7)	3.87 ↓ (4.32)	1.84 ↑ (1.64)	4.3% (5.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Lille - Paris Saint-Germain?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (48 of 56 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.54% – 94.88%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Paris Saint-Germain will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 0.
In recent matches, Lille has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
PSG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, PSG is the team to beat.
There will not play in Lille: Alexsandro (Thigh Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in PSG: Dembele O. (Thigh Injury) Doue D. (Calf Injury) Kamara N. (International duty) Kvaratskhelia K. (Muscle Injury) Marquinhos (Thigh Injury) Neves J. (Injury) Ruiz F. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 21:50. (average 1.1:2.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 1.1:2.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Lille won against Paris Saint-Germain?

Lille has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Paris Saint-Germain won against Lille?

Paris Saint-Germain has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Lille - Paris Saint-Germain were as follows:

01.03.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Lille 4:1

01.09.2024 Lille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:3

10.02.2024 Paris Saint-Germain - Lille 3:1

17.12.2023 Lille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:1

19.02.2023 Paris Saint-Germain - Lille 4:3

Latest results of Lille

02.10.2025 Roma - Lille 0:1 ✺

28.09.2025 Lille - Lyon 0:1 ✺

25.09.2025 Lille - Brann 2:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Lens - Lille 3:0 ✺

14.09.2025 Lille - Toulouse 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain

01.10.2025 Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain 1:2 ✺

27.09.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Auxerre 2:0 ✺

22.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 ✺

17.09.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Atalanta 4:0 ✺

14.09.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Lens 2:0 ✺

French Ligue 1 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lens	16	12	1	3	28:13	15	37
2	PSG	16	11	3	2	35:14	21	36
3	Marseille	16	10	2	4	36:15	21	32
4	Lille	16	10	2	4	33:20	13	32
5	Lyon	16	8	3	5	22:16	6	27
6	Rennes	16	7	6	3	27:24	3	27
7	Strasbourg	16	7	2	7	25:20	5	23
8	Toulouse	16	6	5	5	24:19	5	23
9	Monaco	16	7	2	7	26:27	-1	23
10	Angers	16	6	4	6	17:18	-1	22
11	Brest	16	5	4	7	21:27	-6	19
12	Lorient	16	4	6	6	19:28	-9	18
13	Nice	16	5	2	9	19:29	-10	17
14	Paris FC	16	4	4	8	21:29	-8	16
15	Le Havre	16	3	6	7	13:22	-9	15
16	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	14:25	-11	12
17	Nantes	16	2	5	9	14:28	-14	11
18	Metz	16	3	2	11	17:37	-20	11

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
      Relegation ~ Ligue 2

Which TV channels are streaming of Lille - Paris Saint-Germain?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1 Pass, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter