El Nacional vs Libertad Loja: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Ecuadorian Liga Pro El Nacional - Libertad Loja
Result
2:2
25/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga Pro - Round 22
El Nacional - Libertad Loja - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.901.83
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
1920
Shots on target
73
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
81% (318/391)77% (244/317)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.901.83
xG on target (xGOT)
1.940.54
Total shots
1920
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
910
Blocked Shots
37
Shots inside the Box
813
Shots outside the Box
117
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
1430
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
61
Free Kicks
88
Passes
81% (318/391)77% (244/317)
Long passes
45% (28/62)41% (23/56)
Passes in final third
61% (48/79)66% (75/113)
Crosses
13% (2/16)21% (4/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.541.30
Throw-ins
2321
Fouls
88
Tackles
62% (8/13)70% (14/20)
Duels won
4451
Clearances
2423
Interceptions
910
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.541.94
Goals prevented
-1.46-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 27', 1 - 0, Reasco D. , Pazmino D. (A),
  • 37', 1 - 1, Zambrano I. , Arboleda C. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', 1 - 2, Arboleda C. , Caicedo E. (A),
  • 56', Carabali F. , Cabezas Briones R. A. ,
  • 56', Cela A. , Velez C. ,
  • 67', Rivera B. , Mejia Moreira J. D. ,
  • 74', Ayovi W. , Caicedo N. ,
  • 78', 2 - 2, Reasco D. , Chala J. (A),
  • 84', Chala J. , Guisamano J. ,
  • 84', Borja J. , Maya J. ,
  • 87', Arboleda C. , Avila D. ,
  • 87', Caicedo E. , Monaga J. ,

Chances of winning


El Nacional
32.9%
Draw
28.4%
Libertad Loja
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
52.7% 26.5% 20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6% 28% 19.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.
  • Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Loja's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+22.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-19%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • El Nacional - Libertad Loja Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.79
    (1.76)
    3.3
    (3.49)
    2.44
    (4.46)
    7.1%
    (8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for El Nacional - Libertad Loja?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: El Nacional will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 53.51%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4.
    • El Nacional has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Libertad is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • El Nacional will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 9 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.1:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 3:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between El Nacional - Libertad Loja were as follows:
    04.04.2025 Libertad Loja - El Nacional 1:3
    10.11.2024 El Nacional - Libertad Loja 1:4
    18.05.2024 Libertad Loja - El Nacional 0:2
    25.09.2023 Libertad Loja - El Nacional 0:1
    23.04.2023 El Nacional - Libertad Loja 4:2
    Latest results of El Nacional
    Latest results of Libertad Loja
    Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. del Valle25158245:202553
    2LDU Quito25128541:241744
    3Barcelona SC25135737:29844
    4Libertad26118740:34641
    5Dep. Cuenca25116830:25539
    6Aucas261151035:37-238
    7Orense25115927:29-238
    8U. Catolica2599746:331336
    9Emelec2598824:28-435
    10Macara26791025:27-230
    11EL Nacional25771130:35-528
    12Delfin25610924:37-1328
    13Manta255101031:42-1125
    14Tecnico U25671224:35-1125
    15Vinotinto25661329:36-724
    16Mushuc Runa ✔ 26551628:45-1720

          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
          Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
    Which TV channels are streaming of El Nacional - Libertad Loja?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    ecuadorEcuadorCanal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
    peruPeruZapping Sports
    usaUsaFanatiz
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