Libertad Asuncion vs Alianza Lima: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Copa Libertadores Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima
Result
2:2
27/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6
  • Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)
Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.781.24
Ball Possession
62%38%
Total shots
1313
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
81% (419/518)71% (225/317)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.781.24
xG on target (xGOT)
1.341.99
Total shots
1313
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
89
Blocked Shots
10
Shots inside the Box
87
Shots outside the Box
56
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2911
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
49
Passes
81% (419/518)71% (225/317)
Long passes
39% (24/61)38% (23/61)
Passes in final third
59% (83/140)60% (45/75)
Crosses
29% (8/28)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.820.37
Throw-ins
2124
Fouls
94
Tackles
64% (9/14)36% (5/14)
Duels won
3640
Clearances
1836
Interceptions
88
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
1.991.34
Goals prevented
-0.01-0.66

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 28', 0 - 1, Paolo Guerrero , Castillo J. (A),
  • 40', Jacquet M. 🟨,
  • 42', 0 - 2, Castillo E. , Cari P. (A),
  • 45+3', Garces R. 🟨,
  • 45+5', 1 - 2, Cardozo O. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Caballero H. , Campuzano A. ,
  • 62', Cari P. , Aguirre G. ,
  • 63', 2 - 2, Ramirez I. ,
  • 68', Paolo Guerrero , Barcos H. ,
  • 68', Trauco M. , Lagos R. ,
  • 77', Quevedo K. , Velasquez J. ,
  • 81', Lagos R. 🟨,
  • 82', Cardozo O. 🟨,
  • 83', Alcaraz A. , Villalba R. ,
  • 89', Cardozo Lucena A. , Sanabria L. ,
  • 89', Fernandez M. , Villalba P. ,
  • 89', Aguilar G. , Santa C. R. ,

Chances of winning


Libertad Asuncion
38%
Draw
31.2%
Alianza Lima
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.2% 27.1% 19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2% 25.1% 21.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.
  • Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+11.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.46
    (1.76)
    3.07
    (3.45)
    3.12
    (4.75)
    5.2%
    (6.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 35%88%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Libertad is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Libertad is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury) Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Ceppelini P. (Suspended) Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Tendon Injury) Zambrano C. (Red Card)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).
    • Including home match between the teams, Libertad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima were as follows:
    01.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion 0:1
    23.05.2023 Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion 1:2
    20.04.2023 Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima 1:2
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    Copa Libertadores Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Estudiantes L.P640211:5612
    2Botafogo RJ64028:5312
    3U. De Chile63128:6210
    4Carabobo60152:13-111


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1River Plate633013:7612
    2U. de Deportes62224:408
    3Ind. del Valle62228:11-38
    4Barcelona SC61144:7-34


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1LDU Quito63218:4411
    2Flamengo RJ63216:3311
    3Central Cordoba63217:7011
    4Dep. Tachira60064:11-70


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sao Paulo642010:4614
    2Libertad Asuncion62316:519
    3Alianza Lima61237:11-45
    4Talleres Cordoba61145:8-34


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Racing Club641114:31113
    2Fortaleza62228:538
    3Bucaramanga61326:10-46
    4Colo Colo61235:15-105


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Internacional632112:8411
    2Atl. Nacional63037:619
    3Bahia62135:7-27
    4Nacional62137:10-37


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras660017:41318
    2Cerro Porteno62137:11-47
    3Bolivar620412:1116
    4Sporting Cristal61146:16-104


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Velez Sarsfield632111:4711
    2Penarol63219:4511
    3SA Bulo Bulo62045:15-106
    4Olimpia Asuncion61239:11-25

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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