Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Polish Ekstraklasa Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce
Result
1:1
16/08/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Ekstraklasa - Round 5
  • Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)
Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.071.02
Ball Possession
65%35%
Total shots
1816
Shots on target
82
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
60
Passes
84% (420/502)75% (194/258)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.071.02
xG on target (xGOT)
1.330.44
Total shots
1816
Shots on target
82
Shots off target
512
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
811
Shots outside the Box
105
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
60
Touches in opposition box
3626
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1010
Passes
84% (420/502)75% (194/258)
Long passes
50% (19/38)44% (22/50)
Passes in final third
71% (124/174)75% (65/87)
Crosses
15% (4/26)26% (5/19)
Expected assists (xA)
1.430.83
Throw-ins
1712
Fouls
1210
Tackles
54% (7/13)69% (11/16)
Duels won
5346
Clearances
1937
Interceptions
47
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
17
xGOT faced
0.441.33
Goals prevented
-0.560.33

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 60', Lisman K. , Rodriguez P. ,
  • 64', 0 - 1, Blanik D. ,
  • 71', Dlugosz W. , Davidovic S. ,
  • 71', Blanik D. , Niski N. ,
  • 75', Bengtsson L. , Fiabema B. ,
  • 75', Thordarson G. , Szymczak F. ,
  • 75', Gurgul M. , Moutinho J. ,
  • 75', Antonin , Nikolov V. ,
  • 75', Nono , Zwozny H. ,
  • 79', Niski N. 🟨,
  • 80', Svetlin T. , Kaminski W. ,
  • 83', 1 - 1, Palma L. , Ishak M. (A),
  • 83', Jagiello F. , Kozubal A. ,
  • 90+2', Ishak M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Lech Poznań
54.1%
Draw
25.3%
Korona Kielce
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.7% 21.5% 15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9% 21.1% 15.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lech Poznań's form might have worsened.
  • Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+9.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Korona Kielce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.76
    (1.5)
    3.74
    (4.38)
    4.62
    (5.93)
    5.3%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce?
  • Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 19 - 90.5%). Korona will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 78%100%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lech Poznań will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 4.
    • Lech is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Korona is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Lech is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Lech: Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Murawski R. (Leg Injury) Sousa A. (Inactive) Walemark P. (Surgery)
    • There will not play in Korona: Popov V. (Foot Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lech: Gumny R. (Injury) Jagiello F. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lech won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 28:18. (average 1.4:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.3:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce were as follows:
    05.04.2025 Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce 2:0
    29.09.2024 Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań 2:3
    25.05.2024 Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce 1:2
    02.12.2023 Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań 0:1
    19.05.2023 Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań 0:3
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    Latest results of Korona Kielce
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Wisla Plock751110:4616
    2Cracovia742113:9414
    3Gornik Zabrze740310:5512
    4Jagiellonia540112:9312
    5Korona Kielce732210:7311
    6Lech Poznan531110:10010
    7Pogon Szczecin731311:13-210
    8Radomiak Radom722313:1218
    9Termalica B-B722310:1008
    10Motor Lublin62226:9-38
    11Arka Gdynia72235:8-38
    12Legia52126:427
    13Widzew Lodz72149:907
    14GKS Katowice721410:15-57
    15Zaglebie613212:1026
    16Rakow52036:9-36
    17Piast Gliwice50322:5-33
    18Lechia Gdansk712412:19-70

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1

    Which TV channels are streaming of Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 6
    canadaCanadabeIN Connect
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
    finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
    polandPolandCANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
    serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 7
    usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz
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