Orense vs LDU Quito: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

28/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).

: Liga Pro - Round 18
Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.18	0.75
Ball Possession
36%	64%
Total shots
7	8
Shots on target
4	1
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
1	4
Passes
73% (169/232)	80% (335/421)
Yellow Cards
5	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18	0.75
xG on target (xGOT)
1.58	0.30
Total shots
7	8
Shots on target
4	1
Shots off target
2	6
Blocked Shots
1	1
Shots inside the Box
3	7
Shots outside the Box
4	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
1	4
Touches in opposition box
16	15
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	4
Free Kicks
18	12
Passes
73% (169/232)	80% (335/421)
Long passes
38% (20/52)	47% (32/68)
Passes in final third
62% (55/89)	70% (82/117)
Crosses
10% (1/10)	0% (0/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.59	0.56
Throw-ins
16	20
Fouls
12	18
Tackles
42% (5/12)	67% (8/12)
Duels won
49	46
Clearances
28	15
Interceptions
10	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	2
xGOT faced
0.30	1.58
Goals prevented
-0.73	-0.42

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Caicedo B. 🟨,
37', Allala Menendez G. F. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Mena A. (Pen),
45+4', Arturia G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Cabeza A. ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
46', Diaz M. ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
55', Villamil G. 🟨,
66', Quintero J. ↓, de la Cruz D. I. ↑,
68', Achilier G. 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, Alzugaray L. ⚽,
72', Gruezo C. 🟨,
74', 2 - 1, Caicedo B. ⚽, Vasquez S. (A),
74', Caicedo B. 🟨,
76', Herrera A. 🟨,
77', Valverde J. ↓, Luna R. ↑,
79', Villamil G. ↓, Cornejo F. ↑,
83', Caicedo B. ↓, Vinan B. ↑,
87', Gruezo C. ↓, Pastran L. ↑,
88', Herrera A. ↓, Bianchi O. ↑,

Chances of winning

Orense
32%

Draw
30%

LDU Quito
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

28.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.6%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that LDU Quito could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Orense - LDU Quito Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.22)	3.09 ↓ (3.26)	2.49 ↑ (2.2)	7.5% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.
Orense is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
LDU Quito is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
LDU Quito may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, LDU Quito has had a series of home games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Orense won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against LDU Quito?

Orense has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has LDU Quito won against Orense?

LDU Quito has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Orense - LDU Quito were as follows:

01.03.2025 LDU Quito - Orense 4:0

06.10.2024 LDU Quito - Orense 2:0

19.04.2024 Orense - LDU Quito 1:0

22.09.2023 LDU Quito - Orense 1:0

22.04.2023 Orense - LDU Quito 2:1

Latest results of Orense

23.06.2025 Manta - Orense 0:0 ✺

16.06.2025 Orense - Deportivo Macará 1:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Emelec - Orense 1:0 ✺

24.05.2025 Orense - SD Aucas 2:1 ✺

17.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Orense 2:5 ✺

Latest results of LDU Quito

22.06.2025 LDU Quito - Independiente del Valle 1:1 ✺

18.06.2025 LDU Quito - Barcelona Guayaquil 3:1 ✺

14.06.2025 Vinotinto - LDU Quito 1:2 ✺

31.05.2025 LDU Quito - Técnico Universitario 3:2 ✺

28.05.2025 LDU Quito - Central Córdoba 3:0 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle ✔	29	18	9	2	55:23	32	63
2	Barcelona SC ✔	30	16	6	8	46:33	13	54
3	LDU Quito ✔	29	13	9	7	45:30	15	48
4	U. Catolica	29	12	10	7	56:38	18	46
5	Dep. Cuenca	29	13	7	9	34:27	7	46
6	Orense	29	13	7	9	34:32	2	46
7	Libertad	29	11	10	8	41:36	5	43
8	Aucas ✔	30	11	8	11	38:41	-3	41
9	Emelec	29	11	8	10	30:34	-4	41
10	Macara ✔	30	9	11	10	32:30	2	38
11	EL Nacional ✔	30	9	7	14	32:46	-14	34
12	Delfin	29	6	12	11	26:42	-16	30
13	Tecnico U	29	7	7	15	25:43	-18	28
14	Vinotinto	29	7	6	16	34:42	-8	27
15	Mushuc Runa ✔	30	7	6	17	38:50	-12	27
16	Manta ✔	30	5	11	14	34:53	-19	26

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
LDU Quito is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Aucas is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Macara is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
EL Nacional is Qualified for Liga Pro (Placement Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
Manta is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )

Which TV channels are streaming of Orense - LDU Quito?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz