Juárez vs Toluca: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Mexican Liga MX Juárez - Toluca
Result
0:2
11/08/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 4
  • Referee: Garcia Mendoza K. I. (Mex)
Juárez - Toluca - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.190.68
Ball Possession
60%40%
Total shots
57
Shots on target
03
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
92
Passes
84% (402/480)75% (246/328)
Yellow Cards
43
Expected Goals (xG)
0.190.68
xG on target (xGOT)
0.001.64
Total shots
57
Shots on target
03
Shots off target
52
Blocked Shots
02
Shots inside the Box
25
Shots outside the Box
32
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
92
Touches in opposition box
1310
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1610
Passes
84% (402/480)75% (246/328)
Long passes
46% (16/35)32% (19/60)
Passes in final third
69% (82/118)58% (38/66)
Crosses
10% (3/30)38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.350.66
Throw-ins
3423
Fouls
1018
Tackles
69% (9/13)67% (14/21)
Duels won
4348
Clearances
1539
Interceptions
125
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
10
xGOT faced
1.640.00
Goals prevented
-0.360.00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 34', 0 - 1, Paulinho , Morales R. (A),
  • 45', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 48', 0 - 2, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. , Castro N. (A),
  • 55', Madson 🟨,
  • 56', Pizarro R. , Ricardinho ,
  • 56', Garcia D. , Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ,
  • 57', Mayorga A. , Guilherme Castilho ,
  • 64', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
  • 65', Mosquera M. 🟨,
  • 67', Martinez Yepez H. E. , Zaldivar A. ,
  • 71', Paulinho , Alvarez A. ,
  • 73', Puma , Fulgencio R. ,
  • 79', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. , Virgen O. ,
  • 79', Castro N. , Herrera H. ,
  • 82', 🟨,
  • 88', Alvarez A. 🟨,
  • 88', 🟨,
  • 90', Morales R. , Arce F. ,
  • 90+1', Angulo J. , Arroyo J. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Juárez
27.2%
Draw
26.1%
Toluca
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.2% 25.9% 48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5% 26.2% 48.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
  • Juárez - Toluca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.47
    (3.6)
    3.6
    (3.5)
    2.02
    (1.86)
    6.2%
    (10.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Juárez - Toluca?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Toluca will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 75.67%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 1.
    • Juárez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Toluca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Recently, Juárez has had a series of away games.
    • Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
    • Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
    • There are questionable in Juárez: Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Murillo J. (Injury)
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1.4:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Juárez won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.1:1.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Juárez - Toluca were as follows:
    22.02.2025 Juárez - Toluca 0:4
    13.07.2024 Toluca - Juárez 3:2
    08.03.2024 Juárez - Toluca 1:1
    16.07.2023 Toluca - Juárez 2:4
    23.04.2023 Toluca - Juárez 1:1
    Latest results of Juárez
    03.08.2025 Cincinnati - Juárez 2:3
    31.07.2025 Charlotte - Juárez 1:4
    25.07.2025 Tijuana - Juárez 1:1
    19.07.2025 Tigres UANL - Juárez 1:0
    Latest results of Toluca
    05.08.2025 Toluca - New York City 2:1
    01.08.2025 Toluca - CF Montréal 2:1
    29.07.2025 Toluca - Columbus Crew 2:2
    26.07.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 3:4
    20.07.2025 Club América - Toluca 1:3
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Monterrey760117:9818
    2Club America752015:6917
    3Cruz Azul752015:8717
    4Tigres UANL641116:8813
    5Toluca741216:10613
    6Pachuca741211:7413
    7Club Tijuana733113:9412
    8Juarez73227:7011
    9Club Leon73138:9-110
    10UNAM Pumas72327:8-19
    11Santos Laguna72059:11-26
    12Mazatlan FC71338:10-26
    13Atl. San Luis720510:13-36
    14Atlas712412:19-75
    15Necaxa71246:13-75
    16Guadalajara Chivas61149:12-34
    17Queretaro71157:15-84
    18Puebla71156:18-124

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
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    Which TV channels are streaming of Juárez - Toluca?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    mexicoMexicoAzteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, Tubi TV
    usaUsaEstrella TV, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
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