Guarany de Bagé vs Joinville: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Brazilian Serie D Guarany de Bagé - Joinville
Result
2:1
27/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie D - Round 14
Guarany de Bagé - Joinville - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
76
Shots on target
44
Corner Kicks
125
Total shots
76
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
32
Corner Kicks
125
Goalkeeper Saves
32

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 16', 0 - 1, Yuri Souza ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 67', 1 - 1, Allan ,
  • 80', 2 - 1, Marcio Jonatan (Pen),

Chances of winning


Guarany de Bagé
30%
Draw
30.2%
Joinville
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35% 28.9% 36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2% 27.9% 34.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)
  • Joinville has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guarany de Bagé, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Joinville, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Guarany de Bagé - Joinville Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.07
    (2.58)
    3.05
    (3.12)
    2.31
    (2.51)
    8.8%
    (10.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals))
    • Joinville is Qualified for Serie D (Play Offs 1/16~finals)
    • Guarany de Bagé is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Joinville's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guarany de Bagé won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Guarany de Bagé - Joinville were as follows:
    19.04.2025 Joinville - Guarany de Bagé 1:0
    Latest results of Joinville
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Tuna LusoMaranhao1 : 4
    2LagartoCentral SC0 : 1
    3ImperatrizManaus2 : 0
    4America RNJuazeirense1 : 1
    5AE AltosIndependencia
    6Santa CruzSergipe1 : 2
    7ManauaraSampaio Correa
    8ASAFerroviario1 : 0
    9AparecidenseMarica2 : 1
    10EC Sao JoseGoiatuba1 : 1
    11Rio Branco ESLuverdense0 : 0
    12Inter de LimeiraMarcilio Dias
    13PortuguesaMixto0 : 1
    14CianorteJoinville1 : 1
    15CeilandiaAgua Santa1 : 1
    16Barra FCCascavel1 : 0
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