Jagiellonia Białystok vs Lech Poznań: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

16/03/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Chorten Arena (Bialystok).

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 25
Referee: Stefanski D. (Pol)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.39	1.31
Ball Possession
31%	69%
Goal Attempts
11	16
Shots on Goal
1	2
Shots off Goal
6	7
Blocked Shots
4	7
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
0	4
Shots inside the Box
7	8
Shots outside the Box
4	8
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	0
Free Kicks
15	17
Offsides
1	0
Fouls
17	15
Yellow Cards
3	3
Throw-ins
19	20
Touches in the Opposition Box
26	18
Passes
68% (153/226)	84% (434/516)
Passes in the final third
58% (40/69)	73% (121/166)
Crosses
30% (3/10)	24% (6/25)
Tackles
67% (10/15)	58% (7/12)
Clearances Total
45	18
Interceptions
8	10

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Gholizadeh A. ⚽, Salamon B. (A),
31', 1 - 1, Imaz J. ⚽, Hansen K. (A),
37', Milic A. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
41', Sousa A. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
44', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Polak C. ↑,
52', Salamon B. 🟨,
58', Hansen K. ↓, Semedo E. ↑,
58', Flach L. ↓, Kubicki J. ↑,
59', 2 - 1, Murawski R. (Own goal),
65', Polak C. 🟨,
69', Hakans D. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
69', Carstensen R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
75', Churlinov D. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
75', Pululu A. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
89', Abramowicz S. 🟨,
90+2', Murawski R. 🟨,
90+4', Douglas A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Jagiellonia Białystok
35.2%

Draw
27.5%

Lech Poznań
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

27.2%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

27.5%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-2%)

Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.48)	3.4 ↓ (3.46)	2.51 ↓ (2.69)	6.7% (6.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań?

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Lech will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 32.6% – 78.6%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia won 0.
One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
Jagiellonia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
There will not play in Jagiellonia: Dieguez A. (Knee Injury) Sacek M. (Leg Injury)
There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury) Thordarson G. (Inactive)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 27:41 (average 1.4:2.1).
Including matches at home between the teams Jagiellonia won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:14 (average 1.6:1.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Jagiellonia Białystok won against Lech Poznań?

Jagiellonia Białystok has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Jagiellonia Białystok?

Lech Poznań has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań were as follows:

14.09.2024 Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok 5:0

17.02.2024 Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań 1:2

24.10.2023 Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok 3:3

27.05.2023 Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok 2:0

12.11.2022 Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań 1:2

Latest results of Jagiellonia Białystok

13.03.2025 Cercle Brugge - Jagiellonia Białystok 2:0 ✺

09.03.2025 Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok 0:1 ✺

06.03.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Cercle Brugge 3:0 ✺

02.03.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - GKS Katowice 1:0 ✺

26.02.2025 Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok 3:1 ✺

Latest results of Lech Poznań

08.03.2025 Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec 3:1 ✺

01.03.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań 0:3 ✺

23.02.2025 Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin 3:1 ✺

14.02.2025 Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa 0:1 ✺

09.02.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Lech Poznań 1:0 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Arka Gdynia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Jagiellonia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Legia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Zaglebie	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Cracovia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Termalica B-B	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Rakow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Lechia Gdansk	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	-5

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1

Which TV channels are streaming of Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Croatia	Arena Sport 7, Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball