Inter Milan vs Barcelona: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer UEFA Champions League
Soccer UEFA Champions League Inter Milan - Barcelona
Result
4:3 ET
06/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
Inter Milan - Barcelona - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.282.74
Ball Possession
29%71%
Total shots
1322
Shots on target
710
Big Chances
46
Corner Kicks
57
Passes
66% (208/313)87% (666/768)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
2.282.74
xG on target (xGOT)
4.193.95
Total shots
1322
Shots on target
710
Shots off target
310
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
1014
Shots outside the Box
38
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
46
Corner Kicks
57
Touches in opposition box
3149
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
92
Free Kicks
1014
Passes
66% (208/313)87% (666/768)
Long passes
35% (23/66)63% (26/41)
Passes in final third
54% (49/90)76% (196/258)
Crosses
50% (7/14)16% (6/37)
Expected assists (xA)
1.622.22
Throw-ins
2731
Fouls
1410
Tackles
70% (21/30)43% (9/21)
Duels won
6470
Clearances
5123
Interceptions
1413
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
73
xGOT faced
3.954.19
Goals prevented
0.950.19

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 21', 1 - 0, Martinez L. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
  • 36', Calhanoglu H. 🟨,
  • 45+1', 2 - 0, Calhanoglu H. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 3)
  • 51', Martinez I. 🟨,
  • 54', 2 - 1, Garcia E. ⚽, Martin G. (A),
  • 55', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
  • 60', 2 - 2, Olmo D. ⚽, Martin G. (A),
  • 68', Mkhitaryan H. 🟨,
  • 71', Bisseck Y. ↓, Darmian M. ↑,
  • 71', Martinez L. ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
  • 76', Martinez I. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
  • 79', Mkhitaryan H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
  • 79', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Zielinski P. ↑,
  • 83', Olmo D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
  • 87', 2 - 3, Raphinha ⚽, Pedri (A),
  • 90+1', Torres F. ↓, Lewandowski R. ↑,
  • 90+3', 3 - 3, Acerbi F. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
  • 90+5', Victor P. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Acerbi F. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Flick H. 🟨,
  • Extra Time (1 - 0)
  • 91', Carlos Augusto 🟨,
  • 98', Garcia E. ↓, Fort H. ↑,
  • 99', 4 - 3, Frattesi D. ⚽, Taremi M. (A),
  • 106', Cubarsi P. ↓, Gavi ↑,
  • 106', Pedri ↓, Victor P. ↑,
  • 108', Dumfries D. ↓, de Vrij S. ↑,
  • 118', Bastoni A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Inter Milan
36%		Draw
25.7%		Barcelona
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.5% 24.2% 44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5% 25% 43%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barcelona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
    •

    Inter Milan - Barcelona Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.66 ↓
    (3.06)    		 3.74 ↓
    (3.99)    		 2.52 ↑
    (2.17)    		 4.1%
    (3.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Inter Milan - Barcelona?
  • Users Predictions: 98 users predict this event. Inter will win (votes: 26 - 26.5%). Barcelona will win (votes: 46 - 46.9%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 26.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 37% – 56.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Inter (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Barcelona (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 9 - 75%).
    • TQ, OT - Barcelona (votes: 9 - 81.8%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%).
    • AH 0 - Inter (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 3-3. 2nd leg./
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Inter won 1.
    • Inter is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Barcelona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Recently, Barcelona has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Inter: Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Pavard B. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Casado M. (Knee Injury) Kounde J. (Muscle Injury) Torre P. (Knee Injury) ter Stegen M. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Inter: De Pieri G. (Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Inter won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.4:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Inter won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Inter Milan - Barcelona were as follows:
    30.04.2025 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3
    12.10.2022 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3
    04.10.2022 Inter Milan - Barcelona 1:0
    Latest results of Inter Milan
    03.05.2025 Inter Milan - Verona 1:0 ✺
    30.04.2025 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3 ✺
    27.04.2025 Inter Milan - Roma 0:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Inter Milan - Milan 0:3 ✺
    20.04.2025 Bologna - Inter Milan 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Barcelona
    03.05.2025 Valladolid - Barcelona 1:2 ✺
    30.04.2025 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3 ✺
    26.04.2025 Barcelona - Real Madrid 3:2 ✺
    22.04.2025 Barcelona - Mallorca 1:0 ✺
    19.04.2025 Barcelona - Celta de Vigo 4:3 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1LevadiaRFS0 : 1, 0 : 1
    2Iberia 1999Malmo FF1 : 3, 1 : 3
    3FC CopenhagenBye
    4DritaDifferdange3 : 2, 1 : 0
    5Lech PoznanBye
    6EgnatiaBreidablik0 : 5, 1 : 0
    7VikingurLincoln Red Imps0 : 1, 2 : 3
    8ByeCrvena zvezda
    9KuPSMilsami0 : 0, 1 : 0
    10O. LjubljanaKairat Almaty0 : 2, 1 : 1
    11Slovan BratislavaBye
    12VirtusZrinjski1 : 2, 0 : 2
    13RijekaBye
    14LudogoretsDin. Minsk2 : 2, 1 : 0
    15NoahBuducnost2 : 2, 1 : 0
    16ByeFerencvaros
    17ZalgirisHamrun0 : 3, 2 : 0
    18ByeDyn. Kyiv
    19PafosBye
    20ByeMaccabi Tel Aviv
    21TNSShkendija1 : 2, 0 : 0
    22FCSBInter Escaldes1 : 2, 3 : 1
    23ShelbourneLinfield1 : 1, 1 : 0
    24ByeQarabag
    25BrannBye
    26ByeSalzburg
    28ByeClub Brugge KV
    29RangersBye
    30ByePanathinaikos
    31PlzenBye
    32ByeServette
    33NiceBye
    36ByeBenfica
    37FeyenoordBye
    40ByeFenerbahce

    Quarter-finals
    1RFSMalmo FF1 : 4
    2FC CopenhagenDrita2 : 0
    3Lech PoznanBreidablik7 : 1
    4Lincoln Red ImpsCrvena zvezda0 : 1
    5KuPSKairat Almaty2 : 0
    6Slovan BratislavaZrinjski4 : 0
    7RijekaLudogorets0 : 0
    8NoahFerencvaros1 : 2
    9HamrunDyn. Kyiv0 : 3
    10PafosMaccabi Tel Aviv1 : 1
    11ShkendijaFCSB1 : 0
    12ShelbourneQarabag0 : 3
    13BrannSalzburg1 : 4
    14ByeClub Brugge KV
    15RangersPanathinaikos2 : 0
    16PlzenServette0 : 1
    17NiceBye
    18ByeBenfica
    19FeyenoordBye
    20ByeFenerbahce

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13Club Brugge KV
    8TBD #15TBD #16
    9NiceBenfica
    10FeyenoordFenerbahce
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