Inter Milan vs Barcelona: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer UEFA Champions League
Soccer UEFA Champions League Inter Milan - Barcelona
Result
4:3 ET
06/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
Inter Milan - Barcelona - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.282.74
Ball Possession
29%71%
Total shots
1322
Shots on target
710
Big Chances
46
Corner Kicks
57
Passes
66% (208/313)87% (666/768)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
2.282.74
xG on target (xGOT)
4.193.95
Total shots
1322
Shots on target
710
Shots off target
310
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
1014
Shots outside the Box
38
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
46
Corner Kicks
57
Touches in opposition box
3149
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
92
Free Kicks
1014
Passes
66% (208/313)87% (666/768)
Long passes
35% (23/66)63% (26/41)
Passes in final third
54% (49/90)76% (196/258)
Crosses
50% (7/14)16% (6/37)
Expected assists (xA)
1.622.22
Throw-ins
2731
Fouls
1410
Tackles
70% (21/30)43% (9/21)
Duels won
6470
Clearances
5123
Interceptions
1413
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
73
xGOT faced
3.954.19
Goals prevented
0.950.19

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 21', 1 - 0, Martinez L. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
  • 36', Calhanoglu H. 🟨,
  • 45+1', 2 - 0, Calhanoglu H. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 3)
  • 51', Martinez I. 🟨,
  • 54', 2 - 1, Garcia E. ⚽, Martin G. (A),
  • 55', Dimarco F. ↓, Carlos Augusto ↑,
  • 60', 2 - 2, Olmo D. ⚽, Martin G. (A),
  • 68', Mkhitaryan H. 🟨,
  • 71', Bisseck Y. ↓, Darmian M. ↑,
  • 71', Martinez L. ↓, Taremi M. ↑,
  • 76', Martinez I. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
  • 79', Mkhitaryan H. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
  • 79', Calhanoglu H. ↓, Zielinski P. ↑,
  • 83', Olmo D. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
  • 87', 2 - 3, Raphinha ⚽, Pedri (A),
  • 90+1', Torres F. ↓, Lewandowski R. ↑,
  • 90+3', 3 - 3, Acerbi F. ⚽, Dumfries D. (A),
  • 90+5', Victor P. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Acerbi F. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Flick H. 🟨,
  • Extra Time (1 - 0)
  • 91', Carlos Augusto 🟨,
  • 98', Garcia E. ↓, Fort H. ↑,
  • 99', 4 - 3, Frattesi D. ⚽, Taremi M. (A),
  • 106', Cubarsi P. ↓, Gavi ↑,
  • 106', Pedri ↓, Victor P. ↑,
  • 108', Dumfries D. ↓, de Vrij S. ↑,
  • 118', Bastoni A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Inter Milan
36%		Draw
25.7%		Barcelona
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.5% 24.2% 44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5% 25% 43%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Inter Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barcelona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Inter Milan than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
    •

    Inter Milan - Barcelona Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.66 ↓
    (3.06)    		 3.74 ↓
    (3.99)    		 2.52 ↑
    (2.17)    		 4.1%
    (3.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Inter Milan - Barcelona?
  • Users Predictions: 98 users predict this event. Inter will win (votes: 26 - 26.5%). Barcelona will win (votes: 46 - 46.9%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 26.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 37% – 56.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Inter (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Barcelona (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 9 - 75%).
    • TQ, OT - Barcelona (votes: 9 - 81.8%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%).
    • AH 0 - Inter (votes: 5 - 83.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 3-3. 2nd leg./
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Inter won 1.
    • Inter is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Barcelona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Recently, Barcelona has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Inter: Carboni V. (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Pavard B. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Casado M. (Knee Injury) Kounde J. (Muscle Injury) Torre P. (Knee Injury) ter Stegen M. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Inter: De Pieri G. (Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Inter won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.4:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Inter won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Inter Milan - Barcelona were as follows:
    30.04.2025 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3
    12.10.2022 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3
    04.10.2022 Inter Milan - Barcelona 1:0
    Latest results of Inter Milan
    03.05.2025 Inter Milan - Verona 1:0 ✺
    30.04.2025 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3 ✺
    27.04.2025 Inter Milan - Roma 0:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Inter Milan - Milan 0:3 ✺
    20.04.2025 Bologna - Inter Milan 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Barcelona
    03.05.2025 Valladolid - Barcelona 1:2 ✺
    30.04.2025 Barcelona - Inter Milan 3:3 ✺
    26.04.2025 Barcelona - Real Madrid 3:2 ✺
    22.04.2025 Barcelona - Mallorca 1:0 ✺
    19.04.2025 Barcelona - Celta de Vigo 4:3 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1LevadiaRFS
    2Iberia 1999Malmo FF
    3ZalgirisHamrun
    4ByeDyn. Kyiv
    5PafosBye
    6ByeMaccabi Tel Aviv
    7VikingurLincoln Red Imps
    8ByeCrvena zvezda
    9NoahBuducnost
    10ByeFerencvaros
    11Lech PoznanBye
    12EgnatiaBreidablik
    13FC CopenhagenBye
    14DritaDifferdange
    15RijekaBye
    16LudogoretsDin. Minsk
    17TNSShkendija
    18FCSBInter Escaldes
    19Slovan BratislavaBye
    20VirtusZrinjski
    21ShelbourneLinfield
    22ByeQarabag
    23KuPSMilsami
    24O. LjubljanaKairat Almaty
    25BrannBye
    26ByeSalzburg
    27PlzenBye
    28ByeServette
    29RangersBye
    30ByePanathinaikos

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3Dyn. Kyiv
    3PafosMaccabi Tel Aviv
    4TBD #7Crvena zvezda
    5TBD #9Ferencvaros
    6Lech PoznanTBD #12
    7FC CopenhagenTBD #14
    8RijekaTBD #16
    9TBD #17TBD #18
    10Slovan BratislavaTBD #20
    11TBD #21Qarabag
    12TBD #23TBD #24
    13BrannSalzburg
    14PlzenServette
    15RangersPanathinaikos
    Which TV channels are streaming of Inter Milan - Barcelona?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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