Result
2:1
17/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- : Serie A Betano - Round 9
- Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)
Advertisement
Watch and bet São Paulo - Grêmio live
-
Sign in or
Register
(it's free) to watch and bet Live Stream*
- To place a bet while streaming, go to
Live In-Play
- Prior to joining Bet365.com and funding your account in order to view this event,
or any other particular event via Bet365.com live stream,
you are strongly advised to check with Bet365.com if,
depending on your place of residence, it is possible to view this live stream.
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 1.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (414/484) | 74% (239/325) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.63 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 1.10 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (414/484) | 74% (239/325) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (14/38) | 44% (27/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (102/147) | 42% (25/60) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (10/26) | 33% (2/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.51 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.43 | -0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', Villasanti M. 🟨,
- 9', Marcos Antonio ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 30', Pablo Maia 🟨,
- 37', 0 - 1, Aravena A. ⚽, Monsalve M. (A),
- 45+7', Luciano 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Pablo Maia ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
- 49', 1 - 1, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
- 61', Joao Pedro ↓, Ronald ↑,
- 61', Villasanti M. ↓, Camilo Reijers ↑,
- 61', Alysson ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
- 64', Jemerson 🟨,
- 65', Dodi 🟨,
- 73', Aravena A. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 79', Tiago Volpi 🟨,
- 83', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
- 85', 2 - 1, Andre Silva (Pen),
- 86', Monsalve M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
- 86', Oscar 🟨,
- 88', Lucas Ferreira ↓, Soares C. ↑,
- 90+3', Oscar ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 90+8', Rafael 🟨,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
57.7% | Draw
25.9% | Grêmio
16.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
São Paulo - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.65 ↑
(1.65) |
3.66 ↑
(3.66) |
5.84 ↑
(5.5) |
5%
(6.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 50.9% – 95.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 16 and 15)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, São Paulo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Henrique Carmo
(Inactive)
Igor Vinicius
(Injury)
Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Inactive)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G.
(Inactive)
Gustavo Martins
(Knee Injury)
Mayk
(Hamstring Injury)
Pavon C.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Igor Serrote
(Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 0.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Grêmio?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against São Paulo?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Grêmio were as follows:
01.12.2024
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
17.07.2024
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
1:0
21.10.2023
São Paulo
-
Grêmio
3:0
04.06.2023
Grêmio
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 23:9 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:5 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | Bragantino | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 18:14 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Bahia | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16:12 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Palmeiras | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13:9 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16:7 | 9 | 22 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15:14 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14:12 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Ceara | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:12 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Mirassol | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18:13 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Gremio | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13:19 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 | Santos | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Vasco | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14:18 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Sao Paulo | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 12:18 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Juventude | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10:24 | -14 | 11 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12:19 | -7 | 10 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5:20 | -15 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
Which TV channels are streaming of São Paulo - Grêmio?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
