Grêmio Novorizontino vs Vila Nova: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Brazilian Serie B Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova
Result
1:1
28/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie B Superbet - Round 29
  • Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)
Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.810.28
Ball Possession
63%37%
Total shots
173
Shots on target
51
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
91
Passes
82% (356/432)68% (176/258)
Yellow Cards
25
Expected Goals (xG)
1.810.28
xG on target (xGOT)
1.350.62
Total shots
173
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
71
Shots inside the Box
92
Shots outside the Box
81
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
91
Touches in opposition box
372
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1621
Passes
82% (356/432)68% (176/258)
Long passes
63% (35/56)24% (14/59)
Passes in final third
70% (112/161)38% (22/58)
Crosses
30% (12/40)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.560.12
Throw-ins
2123
Fouls
2116
Tackles
100% (8/8)62% (8/13)
Duels won
4448
Clearances
1637
Interceptions
57
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
04
xGOT faced
0.621.35
Goals prevented
-0.380.35

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 18', 0 - 1, Junior Todinho , Gabriel Poveda (A),
  • 22', Robson 🟨,
  • 41', Dodo 🟨,
  • 43', Gabriel Poveda 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Romulo , Ruiz O. ,
  • 46', Gabriel Poveda , Andre Luis ,
  • 46', Bruno Xavier , Ralf ,
  • 49', Junior Todinho 🟨,
  • 67', Dodo , Guilherme Parede ,
  • 67', Junior Todinho , Vinicius Paiva ,
  • 68', Igor Henrique 🟨,
  • 69', Bruno Jose , Nathan Fogaca ,
  • 69', Willian Farias , Waguininho ,
  • 76', 1 - 1, Waguininho , Robson (A),
  • 82', Ruiz O. 🟨,
  • 82', Mayk , Leo Tocantins ,
  • 82', Nathan Fogaca , Airton ,
  • 87', Willian Formiga 🟨,
  • 88', Igor Henrique , Gustavo Paje ,

Chances of winning


Grêmio Novorizontino
46.9%
Draw
31.9%
Vila Nova
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.8% 28.9% 20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7% 27.9% 19.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
  • Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.34
    (1.82)
    3.24
    (3.2)
    4.74
    (4.54)
    -5.4%
    (8.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 23.1%88.1%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3.
    • Novorizontino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Vila Nova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Vila Nova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Novorizontino is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Novorizontino: Caio Dantas (Inactive) Fabio Matheus (Red Card) Jordi (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Patrick (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Vila Nova: Andre Luis (Inactive) Arilson (Inactive) Higor (Yellow Cards) Tiago Pagnussat (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Novorizontino: Cesar Martins (Injury) Jean Irmer (Inactive) Waguininho (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Vila Nova: Emerson Urso (Injury) Willian Formiga (Inactive)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova were as follows:
    30.05.2025 Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:1
    31.08.2024 Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova 2:0
    14.05.2024 Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:1
    30.07.2023 Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova 3:1
    15.04.2023 Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:1
    Latest results of Vila Nova
    24.09.2025 Vila Nova - Cuiabá 2:2
    13.09.2025 Vila Nova - Remo 1:1
    08.09.2025 Vila Nova - Athletic Club 1:1
    01.09.2025 Chapecoense - Vila Nova 2:2
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Criciuma29147838:251349
    2Goias28147734:26849
    3Athletico-PR29146943:36748
    4Coritiba28138728:19947
    5Novorizontino291211632:26647
    6Cuiaba29129836:33345
    7Remo291012733:28542
    8Chapecoense-SC281251138:29941
    9Atletico GO281011731:28341
    10CRB291241333:30340
    11Avai281010836:30640
    12Operario-PR291091031:28339
    13Vila Nova FC291081129:31-238
    14Ferroviaria29812933:36-336
    15Athletic Club29951530:40-1032
    16America MG28861427:34-730
    17Volta Redonda28791218:29-1130
    18Botafogo SP29781425:44-1929
    19Amazonas28691328:41-1327
    20Paysandu PA295101425:35-1025

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )

    Which TV channels are streaming of Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova?
    It is being streamed on channel
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