Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

04/10/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadium MK (Milton Keynes).

: League Two - Round 11
Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.59	2.74
Ball Possession
46%	54%
Total shots
13	14
Shots on target
4	4
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
3	4
Passes
59% (167/284)	63% (203/320)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.59	2.74
xG on target (xGOT)
1.89	1.64
Total shots
13	14
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
5	8
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
8	10
Shots outside the Box
5	4
Hit the Woodwork
1	1
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
3	4
Touches in opposition box
18	22
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
11	20
Passes
59% (167/284)	63% (203/320)
Long passes
23% (20/86)	32% (30/93)
Passes in final third
40% (39/97)	44% (50/113)
Crosses
50% (5/10)	28% (8/29)
Expected assists (xA)
1.13	1.08
Throw-ins
13	30
Fouls
20	11
Tackles
31% (4/13)	83% (10/12)
Duels won
65	60
Clearances
45	22
Interceptions
8	9
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
1.64	1.89
Goals prevented
-0.36	-0.11

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Gale S. (Own goal),
34', Smith A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
57', 2 - 0, Mendez-Laing N. ⚽, Kelly L. (A),
60', Hutton R. 🟨,
63', Andrews J. 🟨,
63', Maguire L. 🟨,
65', Nevitt E. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
65', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
69', 3 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Collar W. (A),
76', 3 - 1, Palmer-Houlden S. ⚽,
76', Ogie S. ↓, Clark M. ↑,
76', Rowe A. ↓, Cirino L. ↑,
83', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
83', Collar W. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,
87', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Leko J. ↑,
87', Maguire L. ↓, Thompson N. ↑,
90+3', Leko J. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 2, Williams J. ⚽, Gale S. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Milton Keynes Dons
49.8%

Draw
27.5%

Gillingham
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

26.1%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

25.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.83)	3.61 ↑ (3.58)	4.53 ↑ (4.06)	1.9% (7.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Gillingham will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 1.
MK Dons is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Gillingham is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
MK Dons is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.5:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.5:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Milton Keynes Dons won against Gillingham?

Milton Keynes Dons has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Gillingham won against Milton Keynes Dons?

Gillingham has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham were as follows:

12.04.2025 Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons 1:0

14.12.2024 Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham 0:1

27.01.2024 Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham 2:1

07.10.2023 Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons 2:1

Latest results of Milton Keynes Dons

27.09.2025 Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons 1:2 ✺

20.09.2025 Milton Keynes Dons - Accrington Stanley 1:2 ✺

16.09.2025 Milton Keynes Dons - West Ham United U21 1:5 ✺

13.09.2025 Chesterfield - Milton Keynes Dons 1:1 ✺

06.09.2025 Milton Keynes Dons - Grimsby Town 2:3 ✺

Latest results of Gillingham

27.09.2025 Gillingham - Harrogate Town 0:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Newport County - Gillingham 1:3 ✺

13.09.2025 Gillingham - Notts County 1:0 ✺

06.09.2025 Bromley - Gillingham 2:2 ✺

02.09.2025 Gillingham - Fulham U21 4:1 ✺

English League Two Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Walsall	11	8	1	2	17:9	8	25
2	Swindon	11	8	0	3	22:13	9	24
3	Grimsby	11	6	3	2	23:13	10	21
4	Gillingham	11	6	3	2	17:10	7	21
5	Crewe	11	6	1	4	16:12	4	19
6	Salford	11	6	1	4	17:15	2	19
7	MK Dons	11	5	3	3	19:12	7	18
8	Cambridge Utd	11	5	3	3	14:10	4	18
9	Chesterfield	11	5	3	3	20:19	1	18
10	Notts Co	11	5	2	4	20:13	7	17
11	Barnet	11	5	2	4	14:12	2	17
12	Bristol Rovers	11	5	2	4	13:13	0	17
13	Bromley	11	3	6	2	17:15	2	15
14	Fleetwood	11	4	3	4	15:16	-1	15
15	Oldham	11	3	5	3	10:9	1	14
16	Harrogate	11	4	2	5	12:14	-2	14
17	Barrow	11	4	1	6	9:12	-3	13
18	Tranmere	10	2	5	3	16:15	1	11
19	Colchester	11	2	5	4	16:16	0	11
20	Accrington	10	2	3	5	7:13	-6	9
21	Crawley	11	2	2	7	9:20	-11	8
22	Cheltenham	11	2	1	8	6:24	-18	7
23	Shrewsbury	11	1	3	7	7:20	-13	6
24	Newport	11	1	2	8	10:21	-11	5

      Promotion ~ League One
      Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ National League

Which TV channels are streaming of Milton Keynes Dons - Gillingham?

It is being streamed on channel


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+