Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer UEFA Champions League Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe
Result
0:1
11/08/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)
Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.342.17
Ball possession
50%50%
Total shots
1911
Shots on target
26
Big chances
14
Corner kicks
76
Passes
81% (313/385)80% (318/398)
Yellow cards
13
Expected goals (xG)
1.342.17
xG on target (xGOT)
0.282.90
Total shots
1911
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
83
Blocked shots
92
Shots inside the box
68
Shots outside the box
133
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
14
Corner kicks
76
Touches in opposition box
3717
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
10
Free kicks
1312
Passes
81% (313/385)80% (318/398)
Long passes
57% (27/47)35% (21/60)
Passes in final third
70% (98/140)72% (54/75)
Crosses
13% (3/23)30% (3/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.020.89
Throw ins
2324
Fouls
1213
Tackles
58% (15/26)71% (20/28)
Duels won
6465
Clearances
1936
Interceptions
1111
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
52
xGOT faced
2.900.28
Goals prevented
1.900.28
Goal kicks
410

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 40', Semedo N. 🟨,
  • 45', Brown A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 61', Kayombo A. , Weiper N. ,
  • 61', Jatta S. , Beganovic B. ,
  • 61', Malic A. , Heil J. ,
  • 62', Semedo N. , Muldur M. ,
  • 63', Greenwood M. , Aydin O. ,
  • 63', Asensio M. , Fred ,
  • 66', 0 - 1, Talisca (Penalty Awarded),
  • 70', Gorenc Stankovic J. , Fosso R. ,
  • 73', Kante N. , Yuksek I. ,
  • 77', Talisca , Muriqi V. ,
  • 79', Petrovic P. , Koller P. ,
  • 80', Ingolitsch F. 🟨,
  • 84', Mitchell J. 🟨,
  • 89', Akturkoglu K. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Sturm Graz
22.9%
Draw
23.1%
Fenerbahçe
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
24.6% 25.5% 49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2% 25.1% 50.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
  • Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
  • Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.17
    (3.84)
    4.07
    (3.71)
    1.76
    (1.89)
    5.5%
    (6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe?
    • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
    • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
      • BTTS - yes (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • O/U 2.5 - over (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (34 of 43 users predict this - 79.07%).
      Confidence interval (95%): 66.91%91.23%.
    • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    Preview Facts
    • First leg result: 0-2.
    • Sturm is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Fenerbahçe is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Sturm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Sturm has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Fenerbahçe is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).
    • Including home match between the teams, Sturm won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe were as follows:
    05.08.2026 Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz 2:0
    Latest results of Sturm Graz
    08.08.2026 Hartberg - Sturm Graz 0:2
    05.08.2026 Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz 2:0
    28.07.2026 Hearts - Sturm Graz 0:2
    24.07.2026 Seekirchen - Sturm Graz 0:3
    Latest results of Fenerbahçe
    Draw

    1/8-finals
    1Borac Banja LukaLevski Sofia0 : 4, 1 : 1
    2ML VitebskUniv. Craiova0 : 1, 1 : 4
    3OmoniaBye
    4Kairat AlmatySutjeska2 : 0, 2 : 1
    8ByeAEK Athens
    9CelticBye
    16ByeLASK
    17ThunBye
    18ByeDin. Zagreb
    19KlaksvikBissen2 : 1, 2 : 1
    20Kauno ZalgirisDrita3 : 2, 1 : 1
    24ByeViking
    25MjallbyBye
    26Lincoln Red ImpsInter Escaldes1 : 1, 3 : 1
    27FloraIberia 19992 : 2, 2 : 3
    28ByeSlovan Bratislava
    29Ararat-ArmeniaRiga FC2 : 3, 2 : 0
    30FlorianaShamrock Rovers1 : 5, 2 : 0
    31PetrocubEgnatia1 : 6, 1 : 1
    32ByeCelje
    33Vikingur ReykjavikGyor2 : 2, 1 : 0
    34ByeH. Beer Sheva
    35Tre FioriLarne1 : 2, 0 : 1
    36ByeCrvena zvezda
    37AarhusBye
    38ByeLech Poznan
    39Sabah BakuTNS2 : 1, 2 : 0
    40VardarKuPS3 : 2, 0 : 2
    41FenerbahceBye
    42ByeGornik Zabrze
    43Sturm GrazBye
    44ByeHearts
    45Sparta PragueBye
    48ByeLyon
    49Olympiacos PiraeusBye
    52ByeNijmegen
    53Royale Union SGBye
    56ByeBodo/Glimt

    Quarter-finals
    1Levski SofiaUniv. Craiova2 : 2, 1 : 0
    2OmoniaKairat Almaty0 : 2, 1 : 0
    4ByeAEK Athens
    5CelticBye
    8ByeLASK
    9ThunDin. Zagreb2 : 3, 1 : 1
    10KlaksvikKauno Zalgiris0 : 1, 0 : 0
    12ByeViking
    13MjallbyLincoln Red Imps0 : 0, 3 : 0
    14Iberia 1999Slovan Bratislava1 : 1, 0 : 2
    15Ararat-ArmeniaShamrock Rovers1 : 2, 2 : 0
    16EgnatiaCelje2 : 3, 3 : 3
    17Vikingur ReykjavikH. Beer Sheva0 : 2, 2 : 1
    18LarneCrvena zvezda0 : 5, 0 : 4
    19AarhusLech Poznan5 : 1, 1 : 4
    20Sabah BakuKuPS2 : 0, 1 : 0
    21FenerbahceGornik Zabrze1 : 1, 1 : 0
    22Sturm GrazHearts2 : 0, 4 : 0
    23Sparta PragueBye
    24ByeLyon
    25Olympiacos PiraeusBye
    26ByeNijmegen
    27Royale Union SGBye
    28ByeBodo/Glimt

    Semi-finals
    1Levski SofiaKairat Almaty1 : 0, 1 : 0
    2ByeAEK Athens
    3CelticBye
    4ByeLASK
    5Din. ZagrebKauno Zalgiris2 : 1, 5 : 0
    6ByeViking
    7MjallbySlovan Bratislava0 : 2, 1 : 2
    8Ararat-ArmeniaCelje0 : 2, 2 : 1
    9H. Beer ShevaCrvena zvezda2 : 0, 1 : 0
    10AarhusSabah Baku0 : 4, 2 : 1
    11FenerbahceSturm Graz1 : 0, 2 : 0
    12Sparta PragueLyon0 : 3, 2 : 1
    13Olympiacos PiraeusNijmegen1 : 2, 0 : 0
    14Royale Union SGBodo/Glimt2 : 3, 3 : 3

    Final
    1Levski SofiaAEK Athens
    2CelticLASK
    3Din. ZagrebViking
    4Slovan BratislavaCelje
    5H. Beer ShevaSabah Baku
    6FenerbahceLyon
    7NijmegenBodo/Glimt
    Which TV channels are streaming of Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe?
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