Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

25/05/2025 at 00:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

City Light Stadium (Okayama).

: J1 League - Round 18

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.99	1.32
Ball Possession
43%	57%
Total shots
9	10
Shots on target
4	3
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
2	4
Passes
65% (197/303)	68% (264/386)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.99	1.32
xG on target (xGOT)
1.46	0.73
Total shots
9	10
Shots on target
4	3
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked Shots
2	2
Shots inside the Box
6	5
Shots outside the Box
3	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	2
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
2	4
Touches in opposition box
19	24
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	4
Free Kicks
12	8
Passes
65% (197/303)	68% (264/386)
Long passes
26% (21/80)	41% (38/93)
Passes in final third
51% (53/104)	62% (90/146)
Crosses
36% (4/11)	36% (9/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.73	1.39
Throw-ins
22	36
Fouls
8	12
Tackles
61% (11/18)	63% (10/16)
Duels won
61	72
Clearances
47	20
Interceptions
4	2
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
1	2
xGOT faced
0.73	1.46
Goals prevented
-1.40	-0.54

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Ichimi K. ⚽, Sato R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Fujio S. ↓, Numata T. ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Kimura T. ⚽, Tabei R. (A),
62', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
62', Sento K. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
62', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Soma Y. ↑,
63', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Duke M. ↑,
72', Kimura T. ↓, Iwabuchi H. ↑,
72', Esaka A. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Soma Y. ⚽, Nishimura T. (A),
81', 2 - 2, Duke M. ⚽, Soma Y. (A),
84', Tabei R. ↓, Takeuchi R. ↑,
84', Sato R. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
90+1', Nishimura T. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Fagiano Okayama
24.5%

Draw
31.6%

Machida Zelvia
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

31.5%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

31.5%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (3.75)	2.99 ↑ (2.88)	2.15 ↑ (2.05)	5.9% (10.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia?

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 23.1% – 88.1%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 1.
The current form of both teams is below expectations.
Okayama may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Machida Zelvia will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There are questionable in Okayama: Suzuki Y. (Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury) Nakayama Y. (Concussion) Narasaka T. (Knee Injury)
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 1.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Machida Zelvia?

Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Fagiano Okayama?

Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia were as follows:

05.08.2023 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 1:3

07.05.2023 Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama 1:1

04.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:0

Latest results of Fagiano Okayama

18.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

10.05.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama 2:0 ✺

06.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama 0:0 ✺

03.05.2025 Vissel Kobe - Fagiano Okayama 2:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

21.05.2025 Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia 2:1 ✺

17.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol 3:0 ✺

11.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia 2:2 ✺

07.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

03.05.2025 Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	28	16	6	6	52:30	22	54
2	Kashiwa Reysol	28	15	8	5	42:28	14	53
3	Vissel Kobe	29	16	5	8	37:26	11	53
4	Kashima Antlers	28	16	4	8	41:27	14	52
5	Machida	29	15	5	9	45:31	14	50
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	29	15	5	9	34:20	14	50
7	Urawa Reds	28	13	8	7	39:30	9	47
8	Kawasaki Frontale	28	12	9	7	50:38	12	45
9	Gamba Osaka	29	12	4	13	38:44	-6	40
10	Cerezo Osaka	28	10	9	9	42:39	3	39
11	Okayama	28	11	6	11	26:28	-2	39
12	Avispa Fukuoka	28	9	10	9	28:28	0	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	28	8	9	11	31:36	-5	33
14	Verdy	28	8	8	12	16:28	-12	32
15	FC Tokyo	28	8	7	13	30:42	-12	31
16	Nagoya Grampus	28	7	8	13	34:42	-8	29
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	28	6	7	15	26:35	-9	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	28	6	7	15	26:47	-21	25
19	Yokohama FC	28	6	5	17	18:35	-17	23
20	Albirex Niigata	28	4	8	16	27:48	-21	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League

Which TV channels are streaming of Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan