Albirex Niigata vs Fagiano Okayama: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Japan J1 League Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama
Result
1:1
04/10/2025 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : J1 League - Round 33
Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.211.24
Ball Possession
68%32%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
21
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
45
Passes
79% (408/517)59% (138/234)
Yellow Cards
21
Expected Goals (xG)
1.211.24
xG on target (xGOT)
1.070.97
Total shots
105
Shots on target
21
Shots off target
24
Blocked Shots
60
Shots inside the Box
73
Shots outside the Box
32
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
2410
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1311
Passes
79% (408/517)59% (138/234)
Long passes
25% (15/61)40% (21/53)
Passes in final third
54% (63/116)45% (41/92)
Crosses
25% (4/16)5% (1/19)
Expected assists (xA)
1.800.86
Throw-ins
1726
Fouls
1113
Tackles
63% (5/8)64% (7/11)
Duels won
5452
Clearances
3626
Interceptions
44
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
01
xGOT faced
0.971.07
Goals prevented
-0.030.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 24', 0 - 1, Ichimi K. , Motoyama H. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 47', Hayakawa F. 🟨,
  • 56', Kimura T. , Lucao ,
  • 61', Ono Y. , Boudah A. ,
  • 61', Horigome Y. , Hashimoto K. ,
  • 67', 1 - 1, Shirai E. , Okumura J. (A),
  • 74', Shimamura T. , Ohara M. ,
  • 75', Motoyama H. , Matsumoto M. ,
  • 75', Ichimi K. , Iwabuchi H. ,
  • 75', Tagami D. , Suzuki Y. ,
  • 83', Miyamoto E. 🟨,
  • 84', Hayakawa F. , Geria J. ,
  • 84', Okumura J. , Taniguchi K. ,
  • 88', Miyamoto E. , Takeuchi R. ,
  • 90+1', Esaka A. , Fujii K. ,
  • 90+3', Hashimoto K. 🟨,
  • 90+7', Arai T. , Uemura H. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Albirex Niigata
35.5%
Draw
30.5%
Fagiano Okayama
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.2% 28.9% 33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2% 29.7% 34.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
  • The chances for Fagiano Okayama have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
  • Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.65
    (2.58)
    3.1
    (3.31)
    2.78
    (2.83)
    6%
    (4.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 15.4%84.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 0.
    • Both teams have gone through a run of bad results.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Niigata: Danilo Gomes (Knee Injury) Hoshi Y. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (International duty) Tatsuta Y. (Injury)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.6:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Albirex Niigata - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
    18.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata 2:1
    Latest results of Albirex Niigata
    Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers32204852:282464
    2Kyoto33179757:352260
    3Kashiwa Reysol331612548:331560
    4Vissel Kobe33186943:281560
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima33177939:231658
    6Machida331671049:351455
    7Kawasaki Frontale331411860:451553
    8Urawa Reds331410940:32852
    9Gamba Osaka321541346:47-149
    10Cerezo Osaka3311101250:49143
    11Shimizu S-Pulse3310111235:39-441
    12Okayama331181429:35-641
    13FC Tokyo331181436:46-1041
    14Avispa Fukuoka3310101332:37-540
    15Nagoya Grampus331091440:48-839
    16Verdy331091421:35-1439
    17Yokohama F. Marinos33871832:44-1231
    18Yokohama FC33871821:37-1631
    19Shonan Bellmare33672028:57-2925
    20Albirex Niigata334101930:55-2522

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League

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