Emelec vs Orense: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

31/05/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil).

: Liga Pro - Round 15
Referee: Gonzalez G. (Ecu)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.68	0.64
Ball Possession
48%	52%
Total shots
10	8
Shots on target
6	2
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
2	3
Passes
82% (311/377)	84% (350/416)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.68	0.64
xG on target (xGOT)
0.98	0.08
Total shots
10	8
Shots on target
6	2
Shots off target
3	4
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
5	3
Shots outside the Box
5	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
2	3
Touches in opposition box
25	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
17	13
Passes
82% (311/377)	84% (350/416)
Long passes
39% (16/41)	58% (21/36)
Passes in final third
68% (70/103)	76% (73/96)
Crosses
17% (4/24)	40% (4/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.27	0.57
Throw-ins
13	12
Fouls
13	17
Tackles
60% (12/20)	86% (12/14)
Duels won
51	44
Clearances
15	18
Interceptions
7	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	5
xGOT faced
0.08	0.98
Goals prevented
0.08	-0.02

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Ayovi J. 🟨,
37', Velasco P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Parrales M. ↓, Caicedo B. ↑,
58', Valverde J. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,
69', Ruiz J. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
73', Munoz E. ↓, Garces R. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Ayovi J. ⚽, Solis M. (A),
75', Olinick A. ↓, Vasquez S. ↑,
78', Quinonez S. 🟨,
87', Ayovi J. ↓, Valverde J. ↑,
89', Molina N. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
90+4', Achilier G. 🟨,
90+5', Meli M. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Emelec
36.2%

Draw
31.9%

Orense
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

30.7%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

31.2%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Emelec's form might have worsened.

Orense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Emelec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Emelec - Orense Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.15)	2.89 ↓ (3.03)	2.92 ↓ (3.58)	7.6% (7.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Emelec - Orense?

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Orense will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Emelec (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.
Emelec is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Orense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.1:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 0.8:0.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Emelec won against Orense?

Emelec has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against Emelec?

Orense has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Emelec - Orense were as follows:

01.09.2024 Emelec - Orense 2:1

25.03.2024 Orense - Emelec 1:1

13.08.2023 Emelec - Orense 0:0

05.03.2023 Orense - Emelec 2:1

09.10.2022 Emelec - Orense 0:0

Latest results of Emelec

25.05.2025 El Nacional - Emelec 2:0 ✺

18.05.2025 Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec 2:0 ✺

11.05.2025 Emelec - SD Aucas 0:1 ✺

04.05.2025 Independiente del Valle - Emelec 1:2 ✺

27.04.2025 Emelec - Técnico Universitario 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Orense

24.05.2025 Orense - SD Aucas 2:1 ✺

17.05.2025 Mushuc Runa - Orense 2:5 ✺

09.05.2025 Orense - Deportivo Cuenca 1:0 ✺

04.05.2025 Delfín - Orense 0:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Orense - Independiente del Valle 1:2 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	27	17	8	2	50:20	30	59
2	Barcelona SC	27	14	5	8	40:32	8	47
3	LDU Quito	27	12	9	6	42:26	16	45
4	Dep. Cuenca	27	12	7	8	32:26	6	43
5	U. Catolica	27	11	9	7	51:35	16	42
6	Libertad	27	11	9	7	40:34	6	42
7	Orense	27	12	6	9	31:31	0	42
8	Aucas	27	11	5	11	36:39	-3	38
9	Emelec	27	10	8	9	26:30	-4	38
10	EL Nacional	27	9	7	11	32:35	-3	34
11	Macara	27	7	10	10	26:28	-2	31
12	Delfin	27	6	11	10	25:40	-15	29
13	Manta	27	5	10	12	31:45	-14	25
14	Tecnico U	27	6	7	14	24:41	-17	25
15	Vinotinto	27	6	6	15	29:38	-9	24
16	Mushuc Runa ✔	27	6	5	16	30:45	-15	23

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )

Which TV channels are streaming of Emelec - Orense?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports