Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

01/05/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Match Stats


Aces
4	4
Double Faults
4	4
1st Serve Percentage
56%	55%
1st Serve Points Won
76% (29/38)	64% (23/36)
2nd Serve Points Won
47% (14/30)	41% (12/29)
Break Points Saved
71% (5/7)	33% (2/6)
1st Return Points Won
36% (13/36)	24% (9/38)
2nd Return Points Won
59% (17/29)	53% (16/30)
Break Points Converted
67% (4/6)	29% (2/7)
Service Points Won
63% (43/68)	54% (35/65)
Return Points Won
46% (30/65)	37% (25/68)
Total Points Won
55% (73/133)	45% (60/133)
Last 10 Balls
8	2
Match Points Saved
0	1
Service Games Won
82% (9/11)	60% (6/10)
Return Games Won
40% (4/10)	18% (2/11)
Total Games Won
62% (13/21)	38% (8/21)

Chances of winning

Aryna Sabalenka
64%

Elina Svitolina
36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Aryna Sabalenka have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Elina Svitolina have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elina Svitolina than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Aryna Sabalenka - Elina Svitolina Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.49)		2.66 ↑ (2.65)	4.5% (5.1%)

What is the prediction for Aryna Sabalenka - Elina Svitolina?

The most likely score is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Svitolina is ranked WTA: 17.
Sabalenka is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Svitolina is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games, wins - 5).
Sabalenka will have a poor advantage in this game.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 matches, and goals 9:4 (average 1.8:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Aryna Sabalenka won against Elina Svitolina?

Aryna Sabalenka has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Elina Svitolina won against Aryna Sabalenka?

Elina Svitolina has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Aryna Sabalenka - Elina Svitolina were as follows:

16.08.2024 Aryna Sabalenka - Elina Svitolina 2:0

13.05.2024 Elina Svitolina - Aryna Sabalenka 1:2

06.06.2023 Elina Svitolina - Aryna Sabalenka 0:2

Latest results of Aryna Sabalenka

30.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Marta Kostyuk 2:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Peyton Stearns 2:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elise Mertens 2:1 ✺

25.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Anna Blinkova 2:0 ✺

21.04.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Jelena Ostapenko 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Elina Svitolina

30.04.2025 Moyuka Uchijima - Elina Svitolina 0:2 ✺

29.04.2025 Elina Svitolina - Maria Sakkari 2:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Elena Rybakina - Elina Svitolina 0:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Sonay Kartal - Elina Svitolina 0:2 ✺

20.04.2025 Elina Svitolina - Olga Danilovic 2:0 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Bye
2	Blinkova A. (Q)	Udvardy P. (Q)	2 : 0
3	Arango E. (WC)	Osorio C.	0 : 2
4	Bye	Mertens E. (28)
5	Putintseva Y. (22)	Bye
6	Tomljanovic A. (WC)	Masarova R. (Q)	1 : 2
7	Stearns P.	Birrell K.	2 : 1
8	Bye	Anisimova A. (15)
9	Bucsa C. (LL)	Bye
10	Kudermetova V.	Kudermetova P.	2 : 0
11	Lamens S.	Raducanu E.	0 : 2
12	Bye	Kostyuk M. (24)
13	Kenin S. (32)	Bye
14	Sun L.	Gracheva V.	2 : 1
15	Krueger A.	Potapova A.	1 : 2
16	Bye	Zheng Q. (8)
17	Pegula J. (3)	Bye
18	Lys E.	Kostovic T. (Q)	2 : 0
19	Uchijima M.	Montgomery R. (WC)	2 : 1
20	Bye	Jabeur O. (26)
21	Alexandrova E. (21)	Bye
22	Azarenka V.	Danilovic O.	0 : 2
23	Parks A.	Jimenez Kasintseva V. (WC)	2 : 0
24	Bye	Kasatkina D. (14)
25	Rybakina E. (10)	Bye
26	Kessler M.	Andreescu B.	0 : 2
27	Cristian J.	Kartal S.	0 : 2
28	Bye	Svitolina E. (17)
29	Linette M. (29)	Bye
30	Wang Xin.	Sakkari M.	0 : 2
31	Boulter K.	Siniakova K.	2 : 1
32	Bye	Paolini J. (6)
33	Andreeva M. (7)	Bye
34	Zarazua R.	Bouzkova M.	1 : 2
35	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Sherif M.	2 : 0
36	Bye	Frech M. (27)
37	Samsonova L. (18)	Bye
38	Avanesyan E.	Dolehide C.	0 : 2
39	Starodubtseva Y. (Q)	Fruhvirtova L. (WC)	2 : 0
40	Bye	Cocciaretto E. (LL)
41	Haddad Maia B. (16)	Bye
42	Pera B. (LL)	Fett J. (Q)	2 : 0
43	Bencic B.	Sonmez Z. (Q)	2 : 0
44	Bye	Tauson C. (20)
45	Fernandez L. (25)	Bye
46	Sasnovich A. (Q)	Li A.	0 : 2
47	Jones F. (Q)	Yastremska D.	1 : 2
48	Bye	Gauff C. (4)
49	Keys M. (5)	Bye
50	Osaka N.	Bronzetti L.	1 : 2
51	Parry D. (Q)	Begu I.	2 : 0
52	Bye	Kalinskaya A. (30)
53	Vekic D. (19)	Bye
54	Cirstea S.	Baptiste H. (WC)	1 : 2
55	Joint M. (Q)	Martinez Cirez C. (WC)	2 : 1
56	Bye	Navarro E. (11)
57	Shnaider D. (13)	Bye
58	Volynets K.	Kvitova P.	2 : 0
59	Sevastova A.	Pavlyuchenkova A.	2 : 0
60	Bye	Ostapenko J. (23)
61	Noskova L. (31)	Bye
62	Carle M. L. (Q)	Sramkova R.	2 : 0
63	Tomova V.	Eala A. (WC)	0 : 2
64	Bye	Swiatek I. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Blinkova A.	2 : 0
2	Osorio C.	Mertens E. (28)	0 : 2
3	Putintseva Y. (22)	Masarova R.	0 : 2
4	Stearns P.	Anisimova A. (15)	2 : 1
5	Bucsa C.	Kudermetova V.	1 : 2
6	Raducanu E.	Kostyuk M. (24)	1 : 2
7	Kenin S. (32)	Sun L.	2 : 0
8	Potapova A.	Zheng Q. (8)	2 : 0
9	Pegula J. (3)	Lys E.	2 : 0
10	Uchijima M.	Jabeur O. (26)	2 : 1
11	Alexandrova E. (21)	Danilovic O.	2 : 0
12	Parks A.	Kasatkina D. (14)	0 : 2
13	Rybakina E. (10)	Andreescu B.	2 : 0
14	Kartal S.	Svitolina E. (17)	0 : 2
15	Linette M. (29)	Sakkari M.	0 : 2
16	Boulter K.	Paolini J. (6)	0 : 2
17	Andreeva M. (7)	Bouzkova M.	2 : 0
18	Bouzas Maneiro J.	Frech M. (27)	1 : 2
19	Samsonova L. (18)	Dolehide C.	2 : 0
20	Starodubtseva Y.	Cocciaretto E.	2 : 0
21	Haddad Maia B. (16)	Pera B.	2 : 1
22	Bencic B.	Tauson C. (20)	2 : 0
23	Fernandez L. (25)	Li A.	1 : 2
24	Yastremska D.	Gauff C. (4)	1 : 2
25	Keys M. (5)	Bronzetti L.	2 : 0
26	Parry D.	Kalinskaya A. (30)	0 : 2
27	Vekic D. (19)	Baptiste H.	2 : 0
28	Joint M.	Navarro E. (11)	0 : 2
29	Shnaider D. (13)	Volynets K.	2 : 0
30	Sevastova A.	Ostapenko J. (23)	2 : 0
31	Noskova L. (31)	Carle M. L.	2 : 0
32	Eala A.	Swiatek I. (2)	1 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Mertens E. (28)	2 : 1
2	Masarova R.	Stearns P.	0 : 2
3	Kudermetova V.	Kostyuk M. (24)	1 : 2
4	Kenin S. (32)	Potapova A.	1 : 2
5	Pegula J. (3)	Uchijima M.	0 : 2
6	Alexandrova E. (21)	Kasatkina D. (14)	2 : 0
7	Rybakina E. (10)	Svitolina E. (17)	0 : 2
8	Sakkari M.	Paolini J. (6)	2 : 0
9	Andreeva M. (7)	Frech M. (27)	2 : 0
10	Samsonova L. (18)	Starodubtseva Y.	1 : 2
11	Haddad Maia B. (16)	Bencic B.	1 : 2
12	Li A.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
13	Keys M. (5)	Kalinskaya A. (30)	2 : 0
14	Vekic D. (19)	Navarro E. (11)	2 : 1
15	Shnaider D. (13)	Sevastova A.	2 : 0
16	Noskova L. (31)	Swiatek I. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Stearns P.	2 : 0
2	Kostyuk M. (24)	Potapova A.	2 : 0
3	Uchijima M.	Alexandrova E. (21)	2 : 0
4	Svitolina E. (17)	Sakkari M.	2 : 0
5	Andreeva M. (7)	Starodubtseva Y.	2 : 0
6	Bencic B.	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
7	Keys M. (5)	Vekic D. (19)	2 : 0
8	Shnaider D. (13)	Swiatek I. (2)	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Kostyuk M. (24)	2 : 0
2	Uchijima M.	Svitolina E. (17)	0 : 2
3	Andreeva M. (7)	Gauff C. (4)	0 : 2
4	Keys M. (5)	Swiatek I. (2)	1 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Sabalenka A. (1)	Svitolina E. (17)	2 : 0
2	Gauff C. (4)	Swiatek I. (2)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sabalenka A. (1)

Gauff C. (4)

2 : 0

Which TV channels are streaming of Aryna Sabalenka - Elina Svitolina?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Australia	beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2
Brazil	ESPN 2
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
France	beIN Sports 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Greece	Nova Sports 6
Hungary	Match 4
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN 6
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Digi Sport 4
Spain	Movistar Deportes 2
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis