Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis WTA Cincinnati Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens
Result
2:1
11/08/2025 at 21:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WTA - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/16-finals
Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
1111
Double Faults
102
1st Serve Percentage
57%58%
1st Serve Points Won
86% (48/56)76% (38/50)
2nd Serve Points Won
44% (19/43)44% (16/36)
Break Points Saved
67% (4/6)63% (5/8)
1st Return Points Won
24% (12/50)20% (11/56)
2nd Return Points Won
56% (20/36)56% (24/43)
Break Points Converted
38% (3/8)33% (2/6)
Service Points Won
68% (67/99)63% (54/86)
Return Points Won
37% (32/86)32% (32/99)
Total Points Won
54% (99/185)46% (86/185)
Last 10 Balls
91
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
88% (14/16)80% (12/15)
Return Games Won
20% (3/15)13% (2/16)
Total Games Won
55% (17/31)45% (14/31)

Chances of winning


Elena Rybakina
69.3%
Elise Mertens
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.3% 39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3% 37.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Elena Rybakina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elena Rybakina's performance.
  • Elise Mertens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elise Mertens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (-7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elena Rybakina that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (+7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elise Mertens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.38
    (1.58)

    3.08
    (2.39)
    4.9%
    (5.3%)
    What is the prediction for Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens?
  • Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Rybakina will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Mertens will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Rybakina: 58%94.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Elena Rybakina will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Rybakina is ranked WTA: 10. Mertens is ranked WTA: 22.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rybakina won 4.
    • Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Mertens may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Rybakina is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Rybakina won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 1.7:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens were as follows:
    01.06.2024 Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina 0:2
    04.01.2024 Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina 0:2
    27.03.2023 Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens 2:0
    Latest results of Elena Rybakina
    Latest results of Elise Mertens
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Bye
    2Vondrousova M.Cristian J.2 : 0
    3Danilovic O.Boulter K.2 : 0
    4ByeRaducanu E. (30)
    5Fernandez L. (21)Bye
    6Williams V. (WC)Bouzas Maneiro J.0 : 2
    7Collins D.Townsend T. (WC)0 : 2
    8ByeSamsonova L. (13)
    9Rybakina E. (9)Bye
    10Zarazua R.Putintseva Y.2 : 1
    11Ngounoue C. (Q)Baptiste H.2 : 1
    12ByeMertens E. (19)
    13Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)Bye
    14Ito A. (Q)Ruse G.2 : 0
    15Pera B. (WC)Lys E.1 : 2
    16ByeKeys M. (6)
    17Swiatek I. (3)Bye
    18Potapova A.Siegemund L. (Q)2 : 0
    19Osuigwe W. (Q)Maria T.0 : 2
    20ByeKostyuk M. (25)
    21Frech M. (22)Bye
    22Cirstea S.Vekic D.2 : 1
    23Bucsa C. (LL)Yuan Y. (LL)0 : 2
    24ByeShnaider D. (14)
    25Alexandrova E. (12)Bye
    26Sun L.Ruzic A. (Q)2 : 0
    27Joint M.Minnen G.2 : 0
    28ByeHaddad Maia B. (18)
    29Kalinskaya A. (28)Bye
    30Stearns P.Wang Y.2 : 0
    31Starodubtseva Y.Jeanjean L. (Q)1 : 2
    32ByeAnisimova A. (5)
    33Navarro E. (8)Bye
    34Kudermetova P.Seidel E. (Q)1 : 2
    35McNally C. (WC)Inglis M. (Q)2 : 0
    36ByeKessler M. (29)
    37Kenin S. (24)Bye
    38Gracheva V. (Q)Volynets K. (WC)2 : 1
    39Kartal S.Garcia C. (WC)1 : 2
    40ByeMuchova K. (11)
    41Tauson C. (16)Bye
    42Bondar A.Tomljanovic A.0 : 2
    43Lamens S.Kudermetova V.0 : 2
    44ByeBencic B. (17)
    45Linette M. (31)Bye
    46Dolehide C.Sramkova R.1 : 2
    47Blinkova A.Birrell K.0 : 2
    48ByePegula J. (4)
    49Paolini J. (7)Bye
    50Rakhimova K. (Q)Sakkari M.1 : 2
    51Sevastova A.Bektas E. (Q)2 : 1
    52ByeKrueger A. (26)
    53Noskova L. (20)Bye
    54Jovic I. (LL)Sierra S. (LL)2 : 0
    55Parks A.Krejcikova B.1 : 2
    56ByeSvitolina E. (10)
    57Kasatkina D. (15)Bye
    58Zhu L.Bronzetti L.1 : 2
    59Uchijima M.Osorio C.1 : 2
    60ByeOstapenko J. (23)
    61Yastremska D. (32)Bye
    62Li A.Tomova V. (Q)0 : 2
    63Wang Xin.Arango E.2 : 0
    64ByeGauff C. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Vondrousova M.2 : 0
    2Danilovic O.Raducanu E. (30)0 : 2
    3Fernandez L. (21)Bouzas Maneiro J.0 : 2
    4Townsend T.Samsonova L. (13)2 : 0
    5Rybakina E. (9)Zarazua R.2 : 1
    6Ngounoue C.Mertens E. (19)1 : 2
    7Pavlyuchenkova A. (27)Ito A.1 : 2
    8Lys E.Keys M. (6)1 : 2
    9Swiatek I. (3)Potapova A.2 : 0
    10Maria T.Kostyuk M. (25)0 : 2
    11Frech M. (22)Cirstea S.1 : 2
    12Yuan Y.Shnaider D. (14)2 : 1
    13Alexandrova E. (12)Sun L.2 : 0
    14Joint M.Haddad Maia B. (18)2 : 1
    15Kalinskaya A. (28)Stearns P.2 : 1
    16Jeanjean L.Anisimova A. (WO.) (5)
    17Navarro E. (8)Seidel E.1 : 2
    18McNally C.Kessler M. (29)0 : 2
    19Kenin S. (24)Gracheva V.1 : 2
    20Garcia C.Muchova K. (11)0 : 2
    21Tauson C. (16)Tomljanovic A.2 : 1
    22Kudermetova V.Bencic B. (17)2 : 0
    23Linette M. (31)Sramkova R.2 : 0
    24Birrell K.Pegula J. (4)0 : 2
    25Paolini J. (7)Sakkari M.2 : 0
    26Sevastova A.Krueger A. (26)1 : 2
    27Noskova L. (20)Jovic I.0 : 2
    28Krejcikova B.Svitolina E. (10)2 : 1
    29Kasatkina D. (15)Bronzetti L.1 : 2
    30Osorio C.Ostapenko J. (WO.) (23)
    31Yastremska D. (32)Tomova V.2 : 1
    32Wang Xin.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Raducanu E. (30)2 : 1
    2Bouzas Maneiro J.Townsend T.2 : 0
    3Rybakina E. (9)Mertens E. (19)2 : 1
    4Ito A.Keys M. (6)0 : 2
    5Swiatek I. (WO.) (3)Kostyuk M. (25)
    6Cirstea S.Yuan Y.2 : 1
    7Alexandrova E. (12)Joint M.2 : 0
    8Kalinskaya A. (28)Anisimova A. (5)2 : 0
    9Seidel E.Kessler M. (29)2 : 1
    10Gracheva V.Muchova K. (11)2 : 0
    11Tauson C. (16)Kudermetova V.1 : 2
    12Linette M. (31)Pegula J. (4)2 : 1
    13Paolini J. (7)Krueger A. (26)2 : 0
    14Jovic I.Krejcikova B.1 : 2
    15Bronzetti L.Ostapenko J. (23)2 : 1
    16Yastremska D. (32)Gauff C. (WO.) (2)

    1/8-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Bouzas Maneiro J.2 : 0
    2Rybakina E. (9)Keys M. (6)2 : 1
    3Swiatek I. (3)Cirstea S.2 : 0
    4Alexandrova E. (12)Kalinskaya A. (28)1 : 2
    5Seidel E.Gracheva V.1 : 2
    6Kudermetova V.Linette M. (31)2 : 0
    7Paolini J. (7)Krejcikova B.2 : 0
    8Bronzetti L.Gauff C. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Rybakina E. (9)0 : 2
    2Swiatek I. (3)Kalinskaya A. (28)2 : 0
    3Gracheva V.Kudermetova V.0 : 2
    4Paolini J. (7)Gauff C. (2)2 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1Rybakina E. (9)Swiatek I. (3)0 : 2
    2Kudermetova V.Paolini J. (7)1 : 2

    Final
    1Swiatek I. (3)Paolini J. (7)2 : 0
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