Dynamo Dresden vs Mainz: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

18/08/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion (Dresden).

: DFB Pokal - 1/32-finals
Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.57	1.06
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
16	12
Shots on target
7	6
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
3	4
Passes
70% (275/395)	72% (268/370)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57	1.06
xG on target (xGOT)
1.31	2.67
Total shots
16	12
Shots on target
7	6
Shots off target
7	5
Blocked Shots
2	1
Shots inside the Box
10	6
Shots outside the Box
6	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
3	4
Touches in opposition box
23	18
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
14	12
Passes
70% (275/395)	72% (268/370)
Long passes
37% (34/91)	39% (29/74)
Passes in final third
62% (72/116)	56% (72/128)
Crosses
21% (3/14)	36% (5/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.57	0.44
Throw-ins
27	26
Fouls
13	16
Tackles
74% (20/27)	70% (14/20)
Duels won
72	52
Clearances
13	19
Interceptions
10	12
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
5	7
xGOT faced
2.67	1.31
Goals prevented
1.67	1.31

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Boeder L. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽,
32', Kohr D. 🟨,
32', Froling N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bell S. ↓, Leitsch M. ↑,
64', Hollerbach B. ↓, Bobzien B. ↑,
64', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
64', Hauptmann N. ↓, Herrmann L. ↑,
66', Lemmer J. (Pen),
75', Nebel P. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
77', Froling N. ↓, Kutschke S. ↑,
78', Kother D. ↓, Oehmichen J. ↑,
79', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
84', Sapina V. ↓, Menzel T. ↑,
87', 🟥,
90+3', Bobzien B. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Dynamo Dresden
19.9%

Draw
23.1%

Mainz
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

27%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dynamo Dresden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dynamo Dresden's form might have worsened.

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mainz's recent form is better than expected.

Dynamo Dresden - Mainz Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.7 ↑ (3.15)	4.08 ↑ (3.48)	1.68 ↓ (2.18)	5.2% (6.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Dynamo Dresden - Mainz?

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Dynamo Dresden will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Mainz will win (votes: 21 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 53.6% – 86.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

In this match, Mainz is the team to beat.
In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

How many head-to-head matches has Dynamo Dresden won against Mainz?

Dynamo Dresden has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Dynamo Dresden?

Mainz has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Dynamo Dresden - Mainz were as follows:

Latest results of Dynamo Dresden

09.08.2025 Dynamo Dresden - Magdeburg 1:2 ✺

03.08.2025 Greuther Fürth - Dynamo Dresden 3:2 ✺

13.07.2025 Slavia Prague - Dynamo Dresden 4:2 ✺

17.05.2025 Dynamo Dresden - Unterhaching 3:0 ✺

10.05.2025 Waldhof Mannheim - Dynamo Dresden 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Mainz

09.08.2025 Mainz - Strasbourg 0:0 ✺

25.07.2025 Mainz - Seekirchen 5:0 ✺

16.07.2025 Saarbrücken - Mainz 1:4 ✺

11.07.2025 Bayern Alzenau - Mainz 0:4 ✺

17.05.2025 Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 ✺

Draw

2025/26

1/32-finals

1	Illertissen	Nurnberg	4 : 3
2	Saarbrucken	Magdeburg	1 : 3
3	Cottbus	Hannover	1 : 0
4	Sandhausen	RB Leipzig	2 : 4
5	FC Gutersloh	Union Berlin	0 : 5
6	Arminia Bielefeld	Werder Bremen	1 : 0
7	Bahlinger	Heidenheim	0 : 5
8	Pirmasens	Hamburger SV	1 : 2
9	Delmenhorst	B. Monchengladbach	2 : 3
10	Meuselwitz	Karlsruher SC	0 : 5
11	Preussen Munster	Hertha Berlin	0 : 1
12	Ulm	Elversberg	0 : 1
13	Lohne	Greuther Furth	0 : 2
14	RSV Eintracht	Kaiserslautern	0 : 7
15	Engers	Eintracht Frankfurt	0 : 5
16	RW Essen	Dortmund	0 : 1
17	Lubeck	Darmstadt	1 : 2
18	Lokomotive Leipzig	Schalke	0 : 1
19	Hallescher	Augsburg	0 : 2
20	BFC Dynamo	Bochum	1 : 3
21	Schweinfurt	Dusseldorf	2 : 4
22	Lotte	Freiburg	0 : 2
23	Viktoria Koln	Paderborn	1 : 3
24	Grossaspach	Bayer Leverkusen	0 : 4
25	SG Dynamo Dresden	Mainz	0 : 1
26	Braunschweig	Stuttgart	4 : 5
27	Hemelingen	Wolfsburg	0 : 9
28	FC 08 Homburg	Holstein Kiel	0 : 2
29	Regensburg	FC Koln	1 : 2
30	Wehen	Bayern Munich	2 : 3
31	Norderstedt	St. Pauli	0 : 1
32	Hansa Rostock	Hoffenheim	0 : 4

1/16-finals

1	Illertissen	Magdeburg
2	Cottbus	RB Leipzig
3	Union Berlin	Arminia Bielefeld
4	Heidenheim	Hamburger SV
5	B. Monchengladbach	Karlsruher SC
6	Hertha Berlin	Elversberg
7	Greuther Furth	Kaiserslautern
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	Dortmund
9	Darmstadt	Schalke
10	Augsburg	Bochum
11	Dusseldorf	Freiburg
12	Paderborn	Bayer Leverkusen
13	Mainz	Stuttgart
14	Wolfsburg	Holstein Kiel
15	FC Koln	Bayern Munich
16	St. Pauli	Hoffenheim

Which TV channels are streaming of Dynamo Dresden - Mainz?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Argentina	Disney+
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
Europe	Go3 Sport Open Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DFB Play, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 3, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, tv.dfb.de, WOW
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Sport 1
Israel	Sport 4
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball