Stoke City vs Derby County: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer English League Championship Stoke City - Derby County
Result
3:1
09/08/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Championship - Round 1
  • Referee: Bell E. (Eng)
Stoke City - Derby County - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.42
Ball Possession
68%32%
Total shots
123
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
87% (381/438)60% (125/207)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.42
xG on target (xGOT)
2.941.03
Total shots
123
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
41
Blocked Shots
10
Shots inside the Box
62
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
1512
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1311
Passes
87% (381/438)60% (125/207)
Long passes
53% (31/58)35% (21/60)
Passes in final third
65% (63/97)43% (32/74)
Crosses
17% (4/24)38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.200.27
Throw-ins
2320
Fouls
1214
Tackles
42% (5/12)79% (11/14)
Duels won
4249
Clearances
2130
Interceptions
36
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
1.032.94
Goals prevented
0.03-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 38', Thompson L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 53', Jackson K. 🟨,
  • 60', 0 - 1, Morris C. , Blackett-Taylor C. (A),
  • 67', Goudmijn K. , Ozoh D. ,
  • 69', 1 - 1, Baker L. , Thomas S. (A),
  • 73', Manhoef M. , Donley J. ,
  • 74', Lawal B. , Phillips A. ,
  • 78', Wilmot B. 🟨,
  • 80', Blackett-Taylor C. , Weimann A. ,
  • 84', Pearson B. , Seko T. ,
  • 90+4', Jackson K. , Sanderson D. ,
  • 90+5', 2 - 1, Mubama D. , Seko T. (A),
  • 90+8', 3 - 1, Thomas S. , Donley J. (A),
  • 90+9', Mubama D. , Bozenik R. ,

Chances of winning


Stoke City
42.7%
Draw
30.2%
Derby County
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.8% 28.8% 27.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • Stoke City - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.24
    (2.17)
    3.12
    (3.3)
    3.46
    (3.46)
    5.5%
    (5.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Stoke City - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Derby will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7%80.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Stoke (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Derby (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.
    • Derby is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Stoke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.
    • Stoke is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Derby: Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.8:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Stoke City - Derby County were as follows:
    03.05.2025 Derby County - Stoke City 0:0
    02.11.2024 Stoke City - Derby County 2:1
    22.07.2023 Derby County - Stoke City 3:0
    Latest results of Stoke City
    Latest results of Derby County
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Middlesbrough44007:1612
    2West Brom43106:3310
    3Stoke43018:359
    4Leicester43016:339
    5Coventry422014:688
    6Bristol City42209:458
    7Swansea42114:227
    8Portsmouth42114:317
    9Preston42114:317
    10Birmingham42114:407
    11Norwich42026:516
    12Millwall42023:6-36
    13Southampton41216:605
    14Watford41215:505
    15Wrexham41127:704
    16Charlton41122:4-24
    17Hull41125:9-44
    18QPR41126:11-54
    19Blackburn41034:5-13
    20Ipswich40314:5-13
    21Derby40227:11-42
    22Oxford Utd40134:7-31
    23Sheffield Wed40133:9-61
    24Sheffield Utd40041:7-60

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One

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