Stoke City vs Derby County: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

09/08/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent).

: Championship - Round 1
Referee: Bell E. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.62	0.42
Ball Possession
68%	32%
Total shots
12	3
Shots on target
7	2
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
7	3
Passes
87% (381/438)	60% (125/207)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62	0.42
xG on target (xGOT)
2.94	1.03
Total shots
12	3
Shots on target
7	2
Shots off target
4	1
Blocked Shots
1	0
Shots inside the Box
6	2
Shots outside the Box
6	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
7	3
Touches in opposition box
15	12
Accurate through passes
3	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
13	11
Passes
87% (381/438)	60% (125/207)
Long passes
53% (31/58)	35% (21/60)
Passes in final third
65% (63/97)	43% (32/74)
Crosses
17% (4/24)	38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.20	0.27
Throw-ins
23	20
Fouls
12	14
Tackles
42% (5/12)	79% (11/14)
Duels won
42	49
Clearances
21	30
Interceptions
3	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	4
xGOT faced
1.03	2.94
Goals prevented
0.03	-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Thompson L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', Jackson K. 🟨,
60', 0 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Blackett-Taylor C. (A),
67', Goudmijn K. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Baker L. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
73', Manhoef M. ↓, Donley J. ↑,
74', Lawal B. ↓, Phillips A. ↑,
78', Wilmot B. 🟨,
80', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
84', Pearson B. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
90+4', Jackson K. ↓, Sanderson D. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Mubama D. ⚽, Seko T. (A),
90+8', 3 - 1, Thomas S. ⚽, Donley J. (A),
90+9', Mubama D. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,

Chances of winning

Stoke City
42.7%

Draw
30.2%

Derby County
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

28.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Stoke City - Derby County Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.17)	3.12 ↓ (3.3)	3.46 ↓ (3.46)	5.5% (5.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Stoke City - Derby County?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Derby will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Stoke (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Derby (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.
Derby is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Stoke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.
Stoke is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Derby: Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.8:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Stoke City won against Derby County?

Stoke City has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Stoke City?

Derby County has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Stoke City - Derby County were as follows:

03.05.2025 Derby County - Stoke City 0:0

02.11.2024 Stoke City - Derby County 2:1

22.07.2023 Derby County - Stoke City 3:0

Latest results of Stoke City

02.08.2025 Stoke City - Burnley 1:0 ✺

26.07.2025 Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:1 ✺

23.07.2025 Crewe Alexandra - Stoke City 1:2 ✺

16.07.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion - Stoke City 3:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Derby County - Stoke City 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Derby County

02.08.2025 Derby County - Atromitos Athens 2:0 ✺

29.07.2025 Solihull Moors - Derby County 2:4 ✺

26.07.2025 Burton Albion - Derby County 2:1 ✺

22.07.2025 Walsall - Derby County 2:3 ✺

18.07.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Derby County 1:2 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	6:1	5	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	4:0	4	6
3	West Brom	2	2	0	0	4:2	2	6
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	4:1	3	4
5	Coventry	2	1	1	0	5:3	2	4
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
7	Preston	2	1	1	0	3:2	1	4
8	Charlton	2	1	1	0	1:0	1	4
9	Southampton	1	1	0	0	2:1	1	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
11	Norwich	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
12	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
13	Watford	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
14	Swansea	2	1	0	1	1:1	0	3
15	Millwall	2	1	0	1	2:4	-2	3
16	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
17	Hull	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
18	QPR	2	0	1	1	2:3	-1	1
19	Oxford Utd	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0
20	Wrexham	2	0	0	2	3:5	-2	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	1:3	-2	0
22	Derby	2	0	0	2	4:8	-4	0
23	Sheffield Utd	2	0	0	2	1:5	-4	0
24	Sheffield Wed	2	0	0	2	1:5	-4	0

      Promotion ~ Premier League
      Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ League One

Which TV channels are streaming of Stoke City - Derby County?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Disney+
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+