Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey Rublev: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis ATP US Open Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev
Result
3:1
02/09/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/32-finals
Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
913
Double Faults
98
1st serve percentage
63%60%
1st serve points won
74% (60/81)79% (63/80)
2nd serve points won
55% (26/47)34% (18/53)
Break Points Saved
5/66/11
Average 1st serve speed
192 km/h192 km/h
Average 2nd serve speed
167 km/h148 km/h
1st return points won
25% (20/80)26% (21/81)
2nd return points won
66% (35/53)45% (21/47)
Break Points Converted
5/111/6
Winners
3442
Unforced errors
4345
Net points won
40% (4/10)59% (13/22)
Service Points Won
67% (86/128)61% (81/133)
Return Points Won
39% (52/133)33% (42/128)
Total Points Won
53% (138/261)47% (123/261)
Last 10 balls
73
Match points saved
00
Service games won
95% (19/20)75% (15/20)
Return games won
25% (5/20)5% (1/20)
Total games won
60% (24/40)40% (16/40)
Distance covered (metres)
27272469

Chances of winning


Daniel Merida Aguilar
42.4%
Andrey Rublev
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38% 62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5% 62.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
  • Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.26
    (2.48)

    1.65
    (1.52)
    4.7%
    (6.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 39.00
    What is the prediction for Daniel Merida Aguilar - Andrey Rublev?
    • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Rublev will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
      Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 29.6%90.4%.
    • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rublev (votes: 1 - 100%).
    • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
      • O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.
    Preview Facts
    • Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 39. Rublev is ranked ATP: 24.
    • Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Rublev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Andrey Rublev
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Sonego L.3 : 2
    2Halys Q.Diaz Acosta F.3 : 1
    3Dimitrov G. (Q)Popyrin A.1 : 3
    4Hanfmann Y.Tabilo A. (25)1 : 3
    5Darderi L. (21)Wendelken H. (Q)3 : 1
    6Svrcina D. (Q)Royer V.3 : 2
    7Sweeny D. (WC)Moutet C. (RET.)2 : 0
    8Fery A.Musetti L. (13)0 : 3
    9Jodar R. (12)Bu Y. (LL)0 : 3
    10Marozsan F.Zheng M. (WC)0 : 3
    11Svajda Z.Altmaier D.3 : 1
    12Cerundolo J. M.Gea A. (LL)2 : 3
    13Bergs Z. (31)Taberner C.3 : 1
    14De Jong J.Passaro F. (Q)3 : 2
    15Choinski J.Van De Zandschulp B.0 : 3
    16Guerrieri A. (Q)De Minaur A. (6)0 : 3
    17Auger-Aliassime F. (3)Hijikata R.3 : 1
    18Burruchaga R. A.Khachanov K.0 : 3
    19Molcan A.Bonzi B.1 : 3
    20Giron M.Buse I. (32)2 : 3
    21Mensik J. (17)Mochizuki S. (LL)3 : 0
    22Rodionov J. (Q)Mpetshi Perricard G.3 : 0
    23Vallejo D.Monfils G. (WC)1 : 3
    24Borges N.Tien L. (14)0 : 3
    25Fritz T. (9)Blanch Dar. (WC)3 : 0
    26Bellucci M.Piros Z. (Q)3 : 0
    27Ugo Carabelli C.Struff J-L.0 : 3
    28Misolic F.Cerundolo F. (24)0 : 3
    29Blockx A. (28)Barrios Vera T. (Q)3 : 0
    30Shang J.Trungelliti M.2 : 3
    31Basavareddy N. (Q)Schoolkate T. (Q)1 : 3
    32Comesana F.Cobolli F. (5)2 : 3
    33Medvedev D. (7)Gaston H. (Q)3 : 0
    34Gorzny S. (WC)Collignon R.3 : 2
    35Munar J.Atmane T.3 : 2
    36Shimabukuro S.Rinderknech A. (26)1 : 3
    37Vacherot V. (22)Kovacevic A.3 : 0
    38Majchrzak K.Medjedovic H.3 : 0
    39Vukic A.Sakamoto R. (Q)2 : 3
    40Damm M.Tiafoe F. (11)2 : 3
    41Nakashima B. (16)Baez S.3 : 0
    42Michelsen A.Cina F. (Q)3 : 0
    43Merida Aguilar D.Fucsovics M.3 : 0
    44Virtanen O. (LL)Rublev A. (23)2 : 3
    45Etcheverry T. M. (27)Kopriva V.3 : 0
    46Landaluce M.Fearnley J. (LL)2 : 3
    47Berrettini M.Wawrinka S. (WC)3 : 0
    48Navone M.Djokovic N. (4)3 : 2
    49Shelton B. (8)Griekspoor T.3 : 1
    50Dzumhur D.Hurkacz H.1 : 3
    51Kecmanovic M.Shapovalov D.1 : 3
    52van Assche L.Norrie C. (29)3 : 1
    53Lehecka J. (18)Carreno-Busta P.3 : 1
    54Samuel T. (Q)Machac T.3 : 0
    55Harris L. (Q)Kennedy J. (WC)3 : 0
    56Tsitsipas S.Fils A. (10)3 : 1
    57Bublik A. (15)Wolf J.J. (WC)3 : 1
    58Tirante T. A.Mannarino A.2 : 3
    59Prizmic D.Shevchenko A.3 : 2
    60Wong C. (Q)Paul T. (20)1 : 3
    61Arnaldi M. (30)Duckworth J.1 : 3
    62Wu Y.Walton A.3 : 0
    63Faria J.Brooksby J.3 : 2
    64Safiullin R.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 3

    1/32-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Halys Q.3 : 2
    2Popyrin A.Tabilo A. (25)1 : 3
    3Darderi L. (21)Svrcina D.3 : 1
    4Sweeny D.Musetti L. (13)3 : 1
    5Bu Y.Zheng M.1 : 3
    6Svajda Z.Gea A.1 : 3
    7Bergs Z. (31)De Jong J.3 : 1
    8Van De Zandschulp B.De Minaur A. (6)3 : 0
    9Auger-Aliassime F. (3)Khachanov K.1 : 3
    10Bonzi B.Buse I. (32)3 : 0
    11Mensik J. (17)Rodionov J.3 : 1
    12Monfils G.Tien L. (14)0 : 3
    13Fritz T. (9)Bellucci M.3 : 0
    14Struff J-L.Cerundolo F. (24)2 : 3
    15Blockx A. (28)Trungelliti M.3 : 1
    16Schoolkate T.Cobolli F. (5)1 : 3
    17Medvedev D. (7)Gorzny S.3 : 0
    18Munar J.Rinderknech A. (26)0 : 3
    19Vacherot V. (22)Majchrzak K.3 : 1
    20Sakamoto R.Tiafoe F. (11)0 : 3
    21Nakashima B. (16)Michelsen A.0 : 3
    22Merida Aguilar D.Rublev A. (23)3 : 1
    23Etcheverry T. M. (27)Fearnley J.3 : 1
    24Berrettini M.Navone M.1 : 3
    25Shelton B. (8)Hurkacz H.3 : 1
    26Shapovalov D.van Assche L.3 : 0
    27Lehecka J. (18)Samuel T.3 : 0
    28Harris L.Tsitsipas S.1 : 3
    29Bublik A. (15)Mannarino A.3 : 0
    30Prizmic D.Paul T. (20)1 : 3
    31Duckworth J.Wu Y.0 : 3
    32Faria J.Alcaraz C. (2)1 : 3

    1/16-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Tabilo A. (25)3 : 0
    2Darderi L. (21)Sweeny D.3 : 0
    3Zheng M.Gea A.2 : 3
    4Bergs Z. (31)Van De Zandschulp B.2 : 3
    5Khachanov K.Bonzi B.3 : 0
    6Mensik J. (17)Tien L. (14)2 : 3
    7Fritz T. (9)Cerundolo F. (24)2 : 3
    8Blockx A. (28)Cobolli F. (5)3 : 1
    9Medvedev D. (7)Rinderknech A. (26)3 : 0
    10Vacherot V. (22)Tiafoe F. (11)0 : 3
    11Michelsen A.Merida Aguilar D.3 : 0
    12Etcheverry T. M. (27)Navone M.3 : 0
    13Shelton B. (8)Shapovalov D.3 : 1
    14Lehecka J. (18)Tsitsipas S.1 : 3
    15Bublik A. (15)Paul T. (20)2 : 3
    16Wu Y.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 3

    1/8-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Darderi L. (21)3 : 0
    2Gea A.Van De Zandschulp B.2 : 3
    3Khachanov K.Tien L. (14)3 : 2
    4Cerundolo F. (24)Blockx A. (28)1 : 3
    5Medvedev D. (7)Tiafoe F. (11)0 : 3
    6Michelsen A.Etcheverry T. M. (27)3 : 0
    7Shelton B. (8)Tsitsipas S.3 : 0
    8Paul T. (20)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 3

    Quarter-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Van De Zandschulp B.3 : 0
    2Khachanov K.Blockx A. (RET.) (28)2 : 0
    3Tiafoe F. (11)Michelsen A.3 : 2
    4Shelton B. (8)Alcaraz C. (2)3 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Zverev A. (1)Khachanov K.3 : 0
    2Tiafoe F. (11)Shelton B. (8)1 : 3

    Final
    1Zverev A. (1)Shelton B. (8)3 : 1
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