Paphos vs Crvena Zvezda Belgrade: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

26/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Alphamega Stadium (Limassol).

: Champions League - Qualification - Final
Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.51	0.88
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
11	12
Shots on target
5	3
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
3	3
Passes
78% (274/351)	81% (285/350)
Yellow Cards
3	4
Expected Goals (xG)
0.51	0.88
xG on target (xGOT)
1.34	0.86
Total shots
11	12
Shots on target
5	3
Shots off target
5	4
Blocked Shots
1	5
Shots inside the Box
8	9
Shots outside the Box
3	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	0
Corner Kicks
3	3
Touches in opposition box
18	27
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	3
Free Kicks
17	17
Passes
78% (274/351)	81% (285/350)
Long passes
35% (19/54)	54% (30/56)
Passes in final third
49% (38/78)	68% (95/140)
Crosses
19% (4/21)	33% (7/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.32	0.93
Throw-ins
15	23
Fouls
17	17
Tackles
72% (13/18)	71% (5/7)
Duels won
46	55
Clearances
40	31
Interceptions
2	5
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
0.86	1.34
Goals prevented
-0.14	0.34

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Krunic R. 🟨,
33', Veljkovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Babicka S. 🟨,
56', Babicka S. ↓, Radonjic N. ↑,
56', Bruno Duarte ↓, Arnautovic M. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Ivanic M. ⚽, Ndiaye C. (A),
62', Pileas K. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
62', Orsic M. ↓, Jaja ↑,
68', Anderson Silva ↓, Bassouamina M. ↑,
79', Jaja 🟨,
86', Bruno 🟨,
89', Carcedo J. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Jaja ⚽, Pepe (A),
90+1', Ivanic M. ↓, Olayinka P. ↑,
90+1', Elsnik T. ↓, Katai A. ↑,
90+4', Bruno ↓, Pedrao ↑,
90+7', Tiknizyan N. 🟨,
90+9', Pepe 🟨,

Chances of winning

Paphos
29.1%

Draw
25.4%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

26.7%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

27.6%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-4%)

Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.9)	3.73 ↑ (3.59)	2.1 ↓ (2.39)	5.2% (4.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade?

Users Predictions: 88 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 17 - 19.3%). Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 59 - 67%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crvena Zvezda: 57.2% – 76.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

TQ, OT - Crvena Zvezda (votes: 3 - 100%).

BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

1st leg result: 2-1. 2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.
Paphos has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Crvena Zvezda is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Paphos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Crvena Zvezda is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Paphos: David Luiz (Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Paphos: Correia J. (Injury) Tankovic M. (Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Paphos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

How many head-to-head matches has Paphos won against Crvena Zvezda Belgrade?

Paphos has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Crvena Zvezda Belgrade won against Paphos?

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade were as follows:

19.08.2025 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos 1:2

Latest results of Paphos

23.08.2025 Paphos - Enosis Neon Paralimni Postponed ✺

19.08.2025 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos 1:2 ✺

12.08.2025 Paphos - Dynamo Kyiv 2:0 ✺

05.08.2025 Dynamo Kyiv - Paphos 0:1 ✺

30.07.2025 Maccabi Tel Aviv - Paphos 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

19.08.2025 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Paphos 1:2 ✺

15.08.2025 Mladost Lučani - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 1:4 ✺

12.08.2025 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lech Poznań 1:1 ✺

09.08.2025 Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Bačka Topola 1:0 ✺

06.08.2025 Lech Poznań - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade 1:3 ✺

Draw

Qualification

1/8-finals

1	Rijeka	Bye
2	Ludogorets	Din. Minsk	2 : 2, 1 : 0
3	Noah	Buducnost	2 : 2, 1 : 0
4	Bye	Ferencvaros
5	TNS	Shkendija	1 : 2, 0 : 0
6	FCSB	Inter Escaldes	1 : 2, 3 : 1
7	Shelbourne	Linfield	1 : 1, 1 : 0
8	Bye	Qarabag
9	Lech Poznan	Bye
10	Egnatia	Breidablik	0 : 5, 1 : 0
11	Vikingur	Lincoln Red Imps	0 : 1, 2 : 3
12	Bye	Crvena zvezda
13	Zalgiris	Hamrun	0 : 3, 2 : 0
14	Bye	Dyn. Kyiv
15	Pafos	Bye
16	Bye	Maccabi Tel Aviv
17	Bodo/Glimt	Bye
24	Bye	Sturm Graz
25	Celtic	Bye
29	KuPS	Milsami	0 : 0, 1 : 0
30	O. Ljubljana	Kairat Almaty	0 : 2, 1 : 1
31	Slovan Bratislava	Bye
32	Virtus	Zrinjski	1 : 2, 0 : 2
33	Basel	Bye
37	Levadia	RFS	0 : 1, 0 : 1
38	Iberia 1999	Malmo FF	1 : 3, 1 : 3
39	FC Copenhagen	Bye
40	Drita	Differdange	3 : 2, 1 : 0
41	Feyenoord	Bye
44	Bye	Fenerbahce
45	Nice	Bye
48	Bye	Benfica
49	Rangers	Bye
50	Bye	Panathinaikos
51	Plzen	Bye
52	Bye	Servette
53	Brann	Bye
54	Bye	Salzburg
56	Bye	Club Brugge KV

Quarter-finals

1	Rijeka	Ludogorets	1 : 3, 0 : 0
2	Noah	Ferencvaros	3 : 4, 1 : 2
3	Shkendija	FCSB	2 : 1, 1 : 0
4	Shelbourne	Qarabag	0 : 1, 0 : 3
5	Lech Poznan	Breidablik	1 : 0, 7 : 1
6	Lincoln Red Imps	Crvena zvezda	1 : 5, 0 : 1
7	Hamrun	Dyn. Kyiv	0 : 3, 0 : 3
8	Pafos	Maccabi Tel Aviv	1 : 0, 1 : 1
9	Bodo/Glimt	Bye
12	Bye	Sturm Graz
13	Celtic	Bye
15	KuPS	Kairat Almaty	0 : 3, 2 : 0
16	Slovan Bratislava	Zrinjski	2 : 2, 4 : 0
17	Basel	Bye
19	RFS	Malmo FF	0 : 1, 1 : 4
20	FC Copenhagen	Drita	1 : 0, 2 : 0
21	Feyenoord	Bye
22	Bye	Fenerbahce
23	Nice	Bye
24	Bye	Benfica
25	Rangers	Panathinaikos	1 : 1, 2 : 0
26	Plzen	Servette	3 : 1, 0 : 1
27	Brann	Salzburg	1 : 1, 1 : 4
28	Bye	Club Brugge KV

Semi-finals

1	Ludogorets	Ferencvaros	0 : 3, 0 : 0
2	Shkendija	Qarabag	1 : 5, 0 : 1
3	Lech Poznan	Crvena zvezda	1 : 1, 1 : 3
4	Dyn. Kyiv	Pafos	0 : 2, 0 : 1
5	Bodo/Glimt	Bye
6	Bye	Sturm Graz
7	Celtic	Bye
8	Kairat Almaty	Slovan Bratislava	1 : 1, 1 : 0
9	Basel	Bye
10	Malmo FF	FC Copenhagen	0 : 5, 0 : 0
11	Feyenoord	Fenerbahce	2 : 5, 2 : 1
12	Nice	Benfica	0 : 2, 0 : 2
13	Rangers	Plzen	1 : 2, 3 : 0
14	Salzburg	Club Brugge KV	2 : 3, 0 : 1

Final

1	Ferencvaros	Qarabag	3 : 2, 1 : 3
2	Crvena zvezda	Pafos	1 : 1, 1 : 2
3	Bodo/Glimt	Sturm Graz	1 : 2, 5 : 0
4	Celtic	Kairat Almaty	0 : 1, 0 : 0
5	Basel	FC Copenhagen	0 : 2, 1 : 1
6	Fenerbahce	Benfica	0 : 1, 0 : 0
7	Rangers	Club Brugge KV	0 : 6, 1 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Paphos - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, SBT, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
Norway	TV2 Play
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 1 UHD, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Blue Zoom, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter