Corinthians vs Palmeiras: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Corinthians - Palmeiras
Result
1:1
31/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 22
  • Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)
Corinthians - Palmeiras - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.372.14
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
919
Shots on target
17
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
310
Passes
74% (228/308)81% (337/414)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
0.372.14
xG on target (xGOT)
0.012.77
Total shots
919
Shots on target
17
Shots off target
58
Blocked Shots
34
Shots inside the Box
310
Shots outside the Box
69
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
03
Corner Kicks
310
Touches in opposition box
931
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
1617
Passes
74% (228/308)81% (337/414)
Long passes
37% (15/41)43% (23/54)
Passes in final third
58% (42/72)73% (115/158)
Crosses
10% (1/10)26% (7/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.211.34
Throw-ins
1420
Fouls
1816
Tackles
68% (17/25)78% (14/18)
Duels won
6556
Clearances
3615
Interceptions
1110
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
61
xGOT faced
2.770.01
Goals prevented
1.770.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 14', 0 - 1, Vitor Roque (Pen),
  • 26', 1 - 1, Piquerez J. (Own goal),
  • 32', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
  • 40', Breno Bidon 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 61', Mauricio , Torres F. ,
  • 61', Raniele , Joao Pedro ,
  • 71', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
  • 74', Felipe Anderson , Sosa R. ,
  • 80', Garro R. , Caca ,
  • 80', Charles Rigon , Ryan ,
  • 80', Maycon , Vitinho ,
  • 87', Gui Negao , Talles Magno ,
  • 90+4', Depay M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Gomez G. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Corinthians
24.2%
Draw
30.1%
Palmeiras
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33% 30.8% 36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1% 30.9% 36.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corinthians's form might have worsened.
  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+8.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Corinthians, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-9.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Corinthians - Palmeiras Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.19
    (2.84)
    3.32
    (3.04)
    2.15
    (2.59)
    0.5%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Corinthians - Palmeiras?
  • Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 5 - 20%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 17 - 68%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 49.7%86.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Palmeiras (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 3.
    • In recent matches, Corinthians has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Palmeiras is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Corinthians has had a series of away games.
    • Palmeiras might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Corinthians: Hugo (Hernia) Martinez J. (Inactive) Matheus Bidu (Yellow Cards) Yuri Alberto (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury) Raphael Veiga (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Corinthians: Matheuzinho (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:27. (average 0.9:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Corinthians - Palmeiras were as follows:
    06.08.2025 Palmeiras - Corinthians 0:2
    30.07.2025 Corinthians - Palmeiras 1:0
    12.04.2025 Palmeiras - Corinthians 2:0
    27.03.2025 Corinthians - Palmeiras 0:0
    06.02.2025 Palmeiras - Corinthians 1:1
    Latest results of Corinthians
    16.08.2025 Corinthians - Bahia 1:2
    11.08.2025 Juventude - Corinthians 2:1
    06.08.2025 Palmeiras - Corinthians 0:2
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ21145245:103547
    2Cruzeiro22135435:152044
    3Palmeiras20134328:161243
    4Bahia20106428:22636
    5Botafogo RJ20105530:131735
    6Mirassol2098335:201535
    7Sao Paulo2288626:23332
    8Bragantino22931027:32-530
    9Fluminense2084825:28-328
    10Internacional2176825:29-427
    11Ceara2175919:20-126
    12Corinthians2268823:28-526
    13Gremio2167820:26-625
    14Atletico-MG2066820:24-424
    15Vasco21641130:31-122
    16Santos21641120:31-1122
    17Vitoria22410819:32-1322
    18Juventude21631219:41-2221
    19Fortaleza21361220:34-1415
    20Sport Recife20171214:33-1910

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Corinthians - Palmeiras?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    austriaAustriaDAZN
    bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
    iranIranIRIB Varzesh
    israelIsraelSport 4
    kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3
    mexicoMexicoFanatiz
    portugalPortugalCanal 11
    russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
    serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
    switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
    turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 2
    united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
    usaUsaFanatiz
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