Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

04/10/2025 at 00:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Toyota Stadium (Toyota City).

: J1 League - Round 33

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.80	1.13
Ball Possession
35%	65%
Total shots
16	10
Shots on target
4	6
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
5	3
Passes
75% (243/325)	86% (538/622)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.80	1.13
xG on target (xGOT)
2.03	0.93
Total shots
16	10
Shots on target
4	6
Shots off target
8	3
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
9	4
Shots outside the Box
7	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
2	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
5	3
Touches in opposition box
29	13
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
11	5
Passes
75% (243/325)	86% (538/622)
Long passes
48% (30/63)	40% (19/47)
Passes in final third
65% (82/126)	84% (141/167)
Crosses
32% (6/19)	0% (0/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.46	1.07
Throw-ins
18	21
Fouls
5	11
Tackles
50% (8/16)	88% (14/16)
Duels won
48	30
Clearances
26	33
Interceptions
6	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
5	2
xGOT faced
0.93	2.03
Goals prevented
-0.07	0.03

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Nogami Y. ⚽, Fujii H. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Kimura Y. ⚽, Inagaki S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
46', Shibayama M. ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
54', Nakayama K. ↓, Tokumoto S. ↑,
68', Hatanaka S. ↓, Shindo R. ↑,
68', Ohata A. ↓, Takahashi N. ↑,
76', Kagawa S. ↓, Vitor Bueno ↑,
79', Nogami Y. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
79', Kimura Y. ↓, Yamagishi Y. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Vitor Bueno ⚽,
90+1', Morishima T. ↓, Kato G. ↑,
90+1', Mateus ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Nagoya Grampus
34.2%

Draw
27.1%

Cerezo Osaka
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

29.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

30.5%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.98)	3.48 ↑ (3.19)	2.44 ↓ (2.5)	5.7% (5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 16.1% – 74.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Nagoya: Kawazura A. (Ankle Injury) Kikuchi T. (Knee Injury) Schmidt D. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Noborizato K. (Knee Injury) Uejo S. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Nagoya: Uchida T. (Injury)
There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.4:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Cerezo Osaka?

Nagoya Grampus has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Nagoya Grampus?

Cerezo Osaka has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka were as follows:

08.03.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus 1:1

30.06.2024 Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus 2:1

21.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka 2:1

26.08.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Nagoya Grampus 3:1

03.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka 3:1

Latest results of Nagoya Grampus

27.09.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Kashima Antlers 0:4 ✺

23.09.2025 Albirex Niigata - Nagoya Grampus 0:0 ✺

20.09.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare 3:1 ✺

13.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus 0:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Cerezo Osaka

28.09.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

23.09.2025 Kashima Antlers - Cerezo Osaka 3:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol 1:1 ✺

13.09.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka 2:4 ✺

31.08.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	33	20	5	8	52:28	24	65
2	Kyoto	33	17	9	7	57:35	22	60
3	Kashiwa Reysol	33	16	12	5	48:33	15	60
4	Vissel Kobe	33	18	6	9	43:28	15	60
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	17	7	9	39:23	16	58
6	Machida	33	16	7	10	49:35	14	55
7	Kawasaki Frontale	33	14	11	8	60:45	15	53
8	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	40:32	8	52
9	Gamba Osaka	33	15	5	13	46:47	-1	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	33	11	10	12	50:49	1	43
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	33	10	11	12	35:39	-4	41
12	Okayama	33	11	8	14	29:35	-6	41
13	FC Tokyo	33	11	8	14	36:46	-10	41
14	Avispa Fukuoka	33	10	10	13	32:37	-5	40
15	Nagoya Grampus	33	10	9	14	40:48	-8	39
16	Verdy	33	10	9	14	21:35	-14	39
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	8	7	18	32:44	-12	31
18	Yokohama FC	33	8	7	18	21:37	-16	31
19	Shonan Bellmare	33	6	7	20	28:57	-29	25
20	Albirex Niigata	33	4	10	19	30:55	-25	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League

Which TV channels are streaming of Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan