Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Japan J1 League Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama
Result
2:1
02/04/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : J1 League - Round 8
Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.221.16
Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
56
Passes
81% (314/390)79% (330/416)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.221.16
xG on target (xGOT)
1.681.24
Total shots
1314
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
68
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
910
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
56
Touches in opposition box
1922
Through passes
0% (0/1)100% (1/1)
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1212
Passes
81% (314/390)79% (330/416)
Long passes
38% (21/56)40% (17/42)
Passes in final third
66% (71/107)63% (75/119)
Crosses
40% (4/10)22% (6/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.450.74
Fouls
1212
Tackles
67% (10/15)70% (14/20)
Duels won
4557
Clearances Total
3819
Interceptions
104
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
34
xGOT faced
1.241.68
Goals prevented
0.24-0.32

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Thiago Andrade , Rafael Ratao (A),
  • 40', Hatanaka S. , Nishio R. ,
  • 44', 1 - 1, Sato R. , Kato H. (A),
  • 45+2', Kudo K. 🟨,
  • 45+3', 2 - 1, Rafael Ratao , Fernandes L. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 57', Iwabuchi H. , Kimura T. ,
  • 57', Fujita I. , Kamiya Yuta ,
  • 59', Thiago Andrade , Shibayama M. ,
  • 59', Nakajima M. , Kida H. ,
  • 64', Kato H. , Matsumoto M. ,
  • 65', Lucao , Browne N. ,
  • 76', Esaka A. , Ichimi K. ,
  • 84', Noborizato K. , Takahashi N. ,
  • 85', Rafael Ratao , Kagawa S. ,
  • 90+3', Fukui K. , Kim Jin-Hyeon ,
  • 90+4', Tabei R. , Abe K. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cerezo Osaka
43.7%
Draw
27.5%
Fagiano Okayama
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.7% 28.4% 27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44% 28.2% 27.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • The chances for Cerezo Osaka have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
  • Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.16
    (2.15)
    3.39
    (3.31)
    3.25
    (3.37)
    6.7%
    (6.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Fagiano Okayama?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Okayama will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 35%88%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 and 6).
    • One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
    • Cerezo Osaka will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Thiago Andrade (Injury)
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Cerezo Osaka won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:4 (average 1.4:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Cerezo Osaka won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.7:0.7).
    Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Vissel Kobe24144634:221246
    2Kashima Antlers24142836:241244
    3Kashiwa Reysol24128433:231044
    4Kyoto24126640:291142
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima24133829:181142
    6Machida24124834:25940
    7Kawasaki Frontale24108638:261238
    8Urawa Reds2297628:23534
    9Cerezo Osaka2497837:33434
    10Gamba Osaka241041029:31-234
    11Avispa Fukuoka2387821:23-231
    12Okayama24861020:22-230
    13Shimizu S-Pulse24861029:32-330
    14FC Tokyo24851127:34-729
    15Nagoya Grampus24771028:33-528
    16Verdy24771015:24-928
    17Shonan Bellmare23661119:33-1424
    18Yokohama F. Marinos24561323:32-921
    19Yokohama FC24541514:30-1619
    20Albirex Niigata24471324:41-1719

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League

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