Celje vs Lugano: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

14/08/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadion Z'dezele (Celje).

: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals
Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.45	2.83
Ball Possession
53%	47%
Total shots
22	15
Shots on target
5	6
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
2	2
Passes
89% (355/401)	86% (304/354)
Yellow Cards
1	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45	2.83
xG on target (xGOT)
0.91	3.74
Total shots
22	15
Shots on target
5	6
Shots off target
9	2
Blocked Shots
8	7
Shots inside the Box
13	10
Shots outside the Box
9	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
2	2
Touches in opposition box
31	23
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
14	17
Passes
89% (355/401)	86% (304/354)
Long passes
67% (33/49)	62% (29/47)
Passes in final third
77% (93/121)	72% (69/96)
Crosses
20% (3/15)	35% (6/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.86	1.07
Throw-ins
13	9
Fouls
17	14
Tackles
57% (4/7)	76% (13/17)
Duels won
33	47
Clearances
11	16
Interceptions
7	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	3
xGOT faced
3.74	0.91
Goals prevented
-0.26	-1.09

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Grgic A. (Pen),
22', 1 - 1, Kovacevic F. ⚽, Kvesic M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Kelvin D. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
55', Duville-Parsemain A. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
58', Steffen R. 🟨,
59', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
62', Grgic A. 🟨,
65', Belhadj M. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
65', Pihlstrom E. ↓, Bislimi U. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Kvesic M. ⚽, Avdyli M. (A),
70', 2 - 2, Papadopoulos A. ⚽,
71', Karnicnik Z. ↓, Boben M. ↑,
71', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Daniel P. ↑,
74', Bislimi U. 🟨,
78', Iosifov N. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
78', Sturm D. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
78', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Steffen R. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
82', Kvesic M. ↓, Hrka D. ↑,
85', 2 - 4, Alioski E. (Pen),

Chances of winning

Celje
40%

Draw
26.9%

Lugano
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

25.3%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

24.5%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celje's form might have worsened.

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Celje - Lugano Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (1.94)	3.52 ↓ (3.65)	2.91 ↓ (3.41)	6% (8.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Celje - Lugano?

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Lugano will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 32.6% – 78.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

1st leg result: 5-0. 2nd leg.
Celje is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Lugano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Celje could have a small edge in this match.
We predict that Celje will win today's game, with odds of 2.12.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celje won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).
Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Celje won against Lugano?

Celje has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Celje?

Lugano has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Celje - Lugano were as follows:

07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5

13.03.2025 Lugano - Celje 5:5

06.03.2025 Celje - Lugano 1:0

Latest results of Celje

10.08.2025 Celje - Mura 3:0 ✺

07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5 ✺

03.08.2025 Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje 0:5 ✺

31.07.2025 AEK Larnaca - Celje 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 Celje - Radomlje 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Lugano

10.08.2025 Lugano - Basel 3:1 ✺

07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5 ✺

03.08.2025 Sion - Lugano 4:0 ✺

31.07.2025 CFR Cluj - Lugano 1:0 ✺

27.07.2025 Lugano - Thun 1:2 ✺

Draw

Qualification

1/8-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
8	Bye	RFS
9	Shelbourne	Bye
13	Vikingur	Bye
15	Zalgiris	Bye
16	Bye	Linfield
17	Breidablik	Bye
21	Buducnost	Bye
22	Bye	Milsami
24	Bye	Virtus
25	Drita	Bye
29	TNS	Bye
30	Bye	Differdange
31	Levadia	Bye
32	Bye	Iberia 1999
33	O. Ljubljana	Bye
34	Bye	Inter Escaldes
35	Din. Minsk	Bye
36	Bye	Egnatia
40	Bye	Noah
41	Strasbourg	Bye
45	Vllaznia	BFC Daugavpils	4 : 2, 0 : 1
46	Malisheva	Vikingur Reykjavik	0 : 8, 0 : 1
47	HB Torshavn	Bye
48	Bye	Brondby
49	Silkeborg	Bye
50	Bye	KA Akureyri
51	Novi Pazar	Bye
52	Bye	Jagiellonia
53	Zira	Bye
54	Bye	Hajduk Split
55	Atletic Escaldes	Dudelange	3 : 2, 2 : 0
56	Bye	Dinamo Tirana
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	Bye
64	Bye	Servette
65	Anderlecht	Bye
68	Bye	Sheriff Tiraspol
69	Aris	Bye
70	Bye	Puskas Academy
71	AEK Athens FC	Bye
72	Bye	H. Beer Sheva
73	Viking	Bye
74	Zeljeznicar	Koper	1 : 3, 1 : 1
75	Cherno More	Bye
76	Bye	Basaksehir
77	FK Sarajevo	Bye
78	Bye	Univ. Craiova
79	Hibernians	Bye
80	Bye	Trnava
81	Crystal Palace	Bye
88	Bye	Fredrikstad
89	Lugano	Bye
92	Bye	Celje
93	Ostrava	Bye
95	Austria Vienna	Bye
96	Bye	Spaeri
97	Rakow	Bye
98	Bye	Zilina
99	Zhodino	Rabotnicki	1 : 0, 3 : 0
100	Bye	Maccabi Haifa
101	Kauno Zalgiris	Penybont	1 : 1, 3 : 0
102	Valur	Flora	2 : 1, 3 : 0
103	Arda	Bye
104	NSI Runavik	HJK	0 : 5, 4 : 0
105	Oleksandriya	Bye
106	Bye	Partizan
108	Bye	Hibernian
112	Bye	Legia
113	Levski Sofia	Bye
115	Birkirkara	Petrocub	0 : 3, 1 : 0
116	Bye	Sabah Baku
117	Ilves	Bye
118	Bye	AZ Alkmaar
119	Vaduz	Bye
120	Bye	Dungannon
121	Polissya Zhytomyr	Bye
122	Borac Banja Luka	FC Santa Coloma	2 : 0, 1 : 4
123	Paks	Bye
124	Bye	Maribor
128	Bye	Fiorentina
129	AIK	Bye
130	Magpies	Paide	1 : 4, 2 : 3
131	Tre Fiori	Pyunik Yerevan	0 : 5, 1 : 0
132	Bye	Gyor
133	Decic	Sileks	1 : 2, 2 : 0
134	Bye	SK Rapid
135	Dundee Utd	Bye
136	Bye	UNA Strassen
137	Radnicki 1923	Bye
138	SJK	Klaksvik	0 : 2, 1 : 2
139	Kosice	Bye
140	Urartu	Neman	0 : 4, 1 : 2
144	Bye	Rayo Vallecano
145	La Fiorita	Vardar	2 : 2, 0 : 3
146	Bye	Lausanne
147	Zimbru Chisinau	Bye
148	Bye	FC Astana
149	St. Patricks	Hegelmann	2 : 0, 1 : 0
150	Kalju	Partizani	1 : 0, 1 : 1
152	Bye	Besiktas
153	Larne	Auda	3 : 2, 0 : 0
154	Bye	Prishtina
155	Varazdin	Bye
156	Bye	Santa Clara
157	FC Ballkani	Bye
158	Floriana	Haverfordwest	3 : 2, 2 : 1
159	St Josephs	Cliftonville	3 : 2, 2 : 2
160	Bye	Shamrock Rovers
161	Rosenborg	Bye
162	Bye	Banga
163	Hammarby	Bye
164	Bye	Charleroi
168	Bye	Mainz
169	Aktobe	Bye
170	Bye	Sparta Prague
171	Ararat-Armenia	Bye
172	Bye	U. Cluj
173	Riga FC	Bye
174	Racing Luxembourg	Dila Gori	0 : 1, 1 : 2
175	Sutjeska	Dynamo Brest	2 : 0, 1 : 2
176	Bye	Beitar Jerusalem
177	Hacken	Bye
184	Bye	CFR Cluj
185	Wolfsberger AC	Bye
189	Araz	Bye
190	Bye	Aris
191	Omonia	Bye
192	Torpedo Kutaisi	Ordabasy	1 : 1, 4 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
4	Bye	RFS
5	Shelbourne	Bye
7	Vikingur	Bye
8	Zalgiris	Linfield	0 : 2, 0 : 0
9	Breidablik	Bye
11	Buducnost	Milsami	1 : 2, 0 : 0
12	Bye	Virtus
13	Drita	Bye
15	TNS	Differdange	0 : 1, 0 : 1
16	Levadia	Iberia 1999	2 : 2, 1 : 0
17	O. Ljubljana	Inter Escaldes	1 : 1, 4 : 2
18	Din. Minsk	Egnatia	0 : 1, 0 : 2
20	Bye	Noah
21	Strasbourg	Bye
23	Vllaznia	Vikingur Reykjavik	2 : 4, 2 : 1
24	HB Torshavn	Brondby	0 : 1, 1 : 1
25	Silkeborg	KA Akureyri	3 : 2, 1 : 1
26	Novi Pazar	Jagiellonia	1 : 3, 1 : 2
27	Zira	Hajduk Split	1 : 2, 1 : 1
28	Atletic Escaldes	Dinamo Tirana	1 : 1, 1 : 2
29	Shakhtar Donetsk	Bye
32	Bye	Servette
33	Anderlecht	Bye
34	Bye	Sheriff Tiraspol
35	Aris	Puskas Academy	2 : 0, 3 : 2
36	AEK Athens FC	H. Beer Sheva	0 : 0, 1 : 0
37	Viking	Koper	5 : 3, 7 : 0
38	Cherno More	Basaksehir	0 : 4, 0 : 1
39	FK Sarajevo	Univ. Craiova	0 : 4, 2 : 1
40	Hibernians	Trnava	1 : 5, 1 : 2
41	Crystal Palace	Bye
44	Bye	Fredrikstad
45	Lugano	Bye
46	Bye	Celje
47	Ostrava	Bye
48	Austria Vienna	Spaeri	5 : 0, 2 : 0
49	Rakow	Zilina	3 : 1, 3 : 0
50	Zhodino	Maccabi Haifa	0 : 3, 1 : 1
51	Kauno Zalgiris	Valur	2 : 1, 1 : 1
52	Arda	HJK	3 : 2, 0 : 0
53	Oleksandriya	Partizan	0 : 4, 0 : 2
54	Bye	Hibernian
56	Bye	Legia
57	Levski Sofia	Bye
58	Petrocub	Sabah Baku	1 : 4, 0 : 2
59	Ilves	AZ Alkmaar	0 : 5, 4 : 3
60	Vaduz	Dungannon	3 : 0, 0 : 1
61	Polissya Zhytomyr	FC Santa Coloma	4 : 1, 1 : 2
62	Paks	Maribor	1 : 1, 1 : 0
64	Bye	Fiorentina
65	AIK	Paide	6 : 0, 2 : 0
66	Pyunik Yerevan	Gyor	1 : 3, 2 : 1
67	Decic	SK Rapid	2 : 4, 0 : 2
68	Dundee Utd	UNA Strassen	1 : 0, 1 : 0
69	Radnicki 1923	Klaksvik	0 : 1, 0 : 0
70	Kosice	Neman	1 : 1, 2 : 3
72	Bye	Rayo Vallecano
73	Vardar	Lausanne	0 : 5, 2 : 1
74	Zimbru Chisinau	FC Astana	0 : 2, 1 : 1
75	St. Patricks	Kalju	2 : 2, 1 : 0
76	Bye	Besiktas
77	Larne	Prishtina	2 : 1, 0 : 0
78	Varazdin	Santa Clara	0 : 2, 2 : 1
79	FC Ballkani	Floriana	1 : 1, 4 : 2
80	St Josephs	Shamrock Rovers	0 : 0, 0 : 4
81	Rosenborg	Banga	2 : 0, 5 : 0
82	Hammarby	Charleroi	2 : 1, 0 : 0
84	Bye	Mainz
85	Aktobe	Sparta Prague	0 : 4, 2 : 1
86	Ararat-Armenia	U. Cluj	2 : 1, 0 : 0
87	Riga FC	Dila Gori	3 : 3, 2 : 1
88	Sutjeska	Beitar Jerusalem	2 : 5, 1 : 2
89	Hacken	Bye
92	Bye	CFR Cluj
93	Wolfsberger AC	Bye
95	Araz	Aris	2 : 2, 2 : 1
96	Omonia	Torpedo Kutaisi	4 : 0, 1 : 0

Semi-finals

1	Hamrun	Bye
2	Bye	RFS
3	Shelbourne	Bye
4	Vikingur	Linfield	0 : 2, 2 : 1
5	Breidablik	Bye
6	Milsami	Virtus	0 : 3, 3 : 2
7	Drita	Bye
8	Differdange	Levadia	3 : 1, 2 : 3
9	O. Ljubljana	Egnatia	4 : 2, 0 : 0
10	Bye	Noah
11	Strasbourg	Bye
12	Vikingur Reykjavik	Brondby	0 : 4, 3 : 0
13	Silkeborg	Jagiellonia	2 : 2, 0 : 1
14	Hajduk Split	Dinamo Tirana	1 : 3, 2 : 1
15	Shakhtar Donetsk	Bye
16	Bye	Servette
17	Anderlecht	Sheriff Tiraspol	1 : 1, 3 : 0
18	Aris	AEK Athens FC	1 : 3, 2 : 2
19	Viking	Basaksehir	1 : 1, 1 : 3
20	Univ. Craiova	Trnava	3 : 4, 3 : 0
21	Crystal Palace	Bye
22	Bye	Fredrikstad
23	Lugano	Celje	4 : 2, 0 : 5
24	Ostrava	Austria Vienna	1 : 1, 4 : 3
25	Rakow	Maccabi Haifa	2 : 0, 0 : 1
26	Kauno Zalgiris	Arda	0 : 2, 0 : 1
27	Partizan	Hibernian	3 : 2, 0 : 2
28	Bye	Legia
29	Levski Sofia	Sabah Baku	2 : 0, 1 : 0
30	AZ Alkmaar	Vaduz	1 : 0, 3 : 0
31	Polissya Zhytomyr	Paks	1 : 2, 3 : 0
32	Bye	Fiorentina
33	AIK	Gyor	0 : 2, 2 : 1
34	SK Rapid	Dundee Utd	3 : 2, 2 : 2
35	Klaksvik	Neman	0 : 3, 2 : 0
36	Bye	Rayo Vallecano
37	Lausanne	FC Astana	2 : 0, 3 : 1
38	St. Patricks	Besiktas	2 : 3, 1 : 4
39	Larne	Santa Clara	0 : 0, 0 : 3
40	FC Ballkani	Shamrock Rovers	0 : 4, 1 : 0
41	Rosenborg	Hammarby	1 : 0, 0 : 0
42	Bye	Mainz
43	Sparta Prague	Ararat-Armenia	2 : 1, 4 : 1
44	Riga FC	Beitar Jerusalem	1 : 3, 3 : 0
45	Hacken	Bye
46	Bye	CFR Cluj
47	Wolfsberger AC	Bye
48	Araz	Omonia	0 : 5, 0 : 4

Final

1	Hamrun	RFS	2 : 2, 1 : 0
2	Shelbourne	Linfield	2 : 0, 3 : 1
3	Breidablik	Virtus	3 : 1, 2 : 1
4	Drita	Differdange	1 : 0, 2 : 1
5	O. Ljubljana	Noah	2 : 3, 1 : 4
6	Strasbourg	Brondby	3 : 2, 0 : 0
7	Jagiellonia	Dinamo Tirana	1 : 1, 3 : 0
8	Shakhtar Donetsk	Servette	2 : 1, 1 : 1
9	Anderlecht	AEK Athens FC	0 : 2, 1 : 1
10	Basaksehir	Univ. Craiova	1 : 3, 1 : 2
11	Crystal Palace	Fredrikstad	0 : 0, 1 : 0
12	Celje	Ostrava	2 : 0, 1 : 0
13	Rakow	Arda	2 : 1, 1 : 0
14	Hibernian	Legia	3 : 3, 1 : 2
15	Levski Sofia	AZ Alkmaar	1 : 4, 0 : 2
16	Polissya Zhytomyr	Fiorentina	2 : 3, 0 : 3
17	Gyor	SK Rapid	0 : 2, 2 : 1
18	Neman	Rayo Vallecano	0 : 4, 0 : 1
19	Lausanne	Besiktas	1 : 0, 1 : 1
20	Santa Clara	Shamrock Rovers	0 : 0, 1 : 2
21	Rosenborg	Mainz	1 : 4, 2 : 1
22	Sparta Prague	Riga FC	0 : 1, 2 : 0
23	Hacken	CFR Cluj	0 : 1, 7 : 2
24	Wolfsberger AC	Omonia	0 : 2, 2 : 1

Which TV channels are streaming of Celje - Lugano?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Slovenia	Sport TV1
Switzerland	RSI La 2
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic