Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY).

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Semi-finals

Match Stats


Aces
4	7
Double Faults
5	2
1st Serve Percentage
60%	56%
1st Serve Points Won
68% (38/56)	84% (42/50)
2nd Serve Points Won
49% (18/37)	54% (21/39)
Break Points Saved
43% (3/7)	0% (0/1)
Average 1st Serve Speed
183 km/h	192 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
149 km/h	152 km/h
1st Return Points Won
24% (12/50)	34% (19/56)
2nd Return Points Won
46% (18/39)	51% (19/37)
Break Points Converted
100% (1/1)	57% (4/7)
Winners
15	31
Unforced Errors
30	30
Net Points Won
55% (17/31)	68% (15/22)
Service Points Won
59% (55/93)	71% (63/89)
Return Points Won
29% (26/89)	41% (38/93)
Total Points Won
45% (81/182)	55% (101/182)
Last 10 Balls
2	8
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
73% (11/15)	93% (14/15)
Return Games Won
7% (1/15)	27% (4/15)
Total Games Won
40% (12/30)	60% (18/30)
Distance Covered (metres)
1710	1903

Chances of winning

Novak Djokovic
24.4%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
75.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

71.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novak Djokovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novak Djokovic than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Novak Djokovic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (3.35)		1.28 ↓ (1.35)	3.8% (4.2%)

What is the prediction for Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Djokovic will win (votes: 22 - 44%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 28 - 56%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 42.2% – 69.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Djokovic (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +2.5 Sets - Djokovic (votes: 3 - 75%).

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.

Preview Facts

Djokovic is ranked ATP: 7. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 3.
Both players have triumphed in their latest matches.
In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is the team to beat.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Djokovic won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.8:1.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Novak Djokovic won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Novak Djokovic has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Novak Djokovic?

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:

21.01.2025 Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 3:1

04.08.2024 Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:0

14.07.2024 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic 3:0

27.12.2023 Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2

18.11.2023 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Novak Djokovic 0:2

Latest results of Novak Djokovic

02.09.2025 Novak Djokovic - Taylor Harry Fritz 3:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Novak Djokovic - Jan-Lennard Struff 3:0 ✺

29.08.2025 Novak Djokovic - Cameron Norrie 3:1 ✺

27.08.2025 Novak Djokovic - Zachary Svajda 3:1 ✺

24.08.2025 Novak Djokovic - Learner Tien 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

02.09.2025 Jiri Lehecka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:3 ✺

31.08.2025 Arthur Rinderknech - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:3 ✺

29.08.2025 Luciano Darderi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:3 ✺

27.08.2025 Mattia Bellucci - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:3 ✺

25.08.2025 Reilly Opelka - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:3 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
2	Popyrin A.	Ruusuvuori E.	3 : 0
3	Royer V. (WC)	Bu Y.	3 : 0
4	Fucsovics M.	Shapovalov D. (27)	0 : 3
5	Bublik A. (23)	Cilic M.	3 : 0
6	Sonego L.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	2 : 3
7	Borges N.	Holt B.	3 : 0
8	Moller E.	Paul T. (14)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (10)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Goffin D.	1 : 3
11	Brooksby J.	Vukic A.	3 : 2
12	Passaro F. (Q)	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
13	Diallo G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 1
14	Munar J.	Faria J. (LL)	3 : 1
15	Bergs Z.	Tseng C. H.	3 : 0
16	Gomez F. A. (Q)	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Fearnley J.	1 : 3
19	Monfils G.	Safiullin R.	2 : 3
20	Harris B. (LL)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
21	Humbert U. (22)	Walton A.	1 : 3
22	Kovacevic A.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 3
23	Duckworth J. (LL)	Boyer T. (WC)	0 : 3
24	Prizmic D. (Q)	Rublev A. (15)	0 : 3
25	Khachanov K. (9)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	3 : 1
26	Dellien H.	Majchrzak K.	1 : 3
27	Riedi L. (Q)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
28	Arnaldi M.	Cerundolo F. (19)	2 : 3
29	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Muller A.	3 : 1
30	Altmaier D.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 2
31	Gaston H.	Mochizuki S. (Q)	0 : 3
32	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
33	Djokovic N. (7)	Tien L.	3 : 0
34	Svajda Z. (Q)	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
35	Norrie C.	Korda S. (RET.)	2 : 0
36	Comesana F.	Michelsen A. (28)	3 : 1
37	Tiafoe F. (17)	Nishioka Y.	3 : 0
38	Damm M. (Q)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
39	Struff J-L. (Q)	McDonald M.	3 : 1
40	Van De Zandschulp B.	Rune H. (11)	0 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Jarry N.	3 : 0
42	Blanchet U. (Q)	Marozsan F.	3 : 1
43	Fonseca J.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 0
44	Nardi L.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
45	Nakashima B. (30)	De Jong J. (Q)	3 : 2
46	Kym J. (Q)	Quinn E.	3 : 1
47	Baez S.	Harris L. (Q)	0 : 3
48	Nava E. (WC)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (6)	Buse I. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Carreno-Busta P.	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	3 : 0
51	Thompson J.	Moutet C.	3 : 1
52	Mannarino A.	Griekspoor T. (29)	3 : 0
53	Lehecka J. (20)	Coric B.	3 : 1
54	Ugo Carabelli C.	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 3
55	Galan D. E. (Alt)	Collignon R.	0 : 3
56	Ofner S.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Medvedev D. (13)	Bonzi B.	2 : 3
58	Navone M.	Giron M.	2 : 3
59	Carballes Baena R.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
60	Shevchenko A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	0 : 3
61	Darderi L. (32)	Hijikata R.	3 : 0
62	Dostanic S. (WC)	Spizzirri E. (WC)	0 : 3
63	Bellucci M.	Shang J. (RET.)	2 : 1
64	Opelka R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Popyrin A.	3 : 0
2	Royer V.	Shapovalov D. (27)	1 : 3
3	Bublik A. (23)	Schoolkate T.	3 : 0
4	Borges N.	Paul T. (14)	2 : 3
5	Musetti L. (10)	Goffin D.	3 : 0
6	Brooksby J.	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
7	Diallo G. (31)	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Bergs Z. (WO.)	Draper J. (5)
9	Zverev A. (3)	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
10	Safiullin R.	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
11	Walton A.	Wong C.	1 : 3
12	Boyer T.	Rublev A. (15)	1 : 3
13	Khachanov K. (9)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 3
14	Riedi L.	Cerundolo F. (19)	3 : 2
15	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Altmaier D.	2 : 3
16	Mochizuki S.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
17	Djokovic N. (7)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
18	Norrie C.	Comesana F.	3 : 1
19	Tiafoe F. (17)	Damm M.	3 : 1
20	Struff J-L.	Rune H. (11)	3 : 2
21	Mensik J. (16)	Blanchet U.	2 : 3
22	Fonseca J.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
23	Nakashima B. (30)	Kym J.	2 : 3
24	Harris L.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
25	Shelton B. (6)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Mannarino A.	1 : 3
27	Lehecka J. (20)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 1
28	Collignon R.	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 2
29	Bonzi B.	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Rinderknech A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	3 : 2
31	Darderi L. (32)	Spizzirri E.	3 : 1
32	Bellucci M.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Shapovalov D. (27)	3 : 1
2	Bublik A. (23)	Paul T. (14)	3 : 2
3	Musetti L. (10)	Cobolli F. (RET.) (24)	2 : 0
4	Munar J.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
5	Zverev A. (3)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	1 : 3
6	Wong C.	Rublev A. (15)	2 : 3
7	Majchrzak K. (RET.)	Riedi L.	0 : 0
8	Altmaier D. (RET.)	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (7)	Norrie C.	3 : 1
10	Tiafoe F. (17)	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
11	Blanchet U.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
12	Kym J.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
13	Shelton B. (RET.) (6)	Mannarino A.	2 : 2
14	Lehecka J. (20)	Collignon R.	3 : 0
15	Bonzi B.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
16	Darderi L. (32)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A. (23)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (10)	Munar J.	3 : 0
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	Rublev A. (15)	3 : 0
4	Riedi L.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
5	Djokovic N. (7)	Struff J-L.	3 : 0
6	Machac T. (21)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
7	Mannarino A.	Lehecka J. (20)	1 : 3
8	Rinderknech A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Musetti L. (10)	3 : 0
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	De Minaur A. (8)	3 : 1
3	Djokovic N. (7)	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
4	Lehecka J. (20)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	3 : 1
2	Djokovic N. (7)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

1 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Novak Djokovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Denmark	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Germany	Eurosport 1, Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Hungary	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 1, Super Tennis
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Romania	Eurosport 1, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
Switzerland	RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF Info, SRF Info
Turkey	Eurosport 1
Ukraine	Eurosport 1
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis