Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Tennis ATP Cincinnati Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Result
Sinner J. retired
18/08/2025 at 15:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Final
Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
11
Double Faults
20
1st Serve Percentage
53%46%
1st Serve Points Won
44% (4/9)83% (5/6)
2nd Serve Points Won
0% (0/8)57% (4/7)
Break Points Saved
50% (3/6)0% (0/0)
Average 1st Serve Speed
201 km/h197 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
169 km/h159 km/h
1st Return Points Won
50% (3/6)78% (7/9)
2nd Return Points Won
43% (3/7)100% (8/8)
Break Points Converted
0% (0/0)50% (3/6)
Winners
42
Unforced Errors
91
Net Points Won
0% (0/1)0% (0/0)
Service Points Won
25% (4/16)69% (9/13)
Return Points Won
31% (4/13)75% (12/16)
Total Points Won
28% (8/29)72% (21/29)
Last 10 Balls
28
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
0% (0/3)100% (2/2)
Return Games Won
0% (0/2)100% (3/3)
Total Games Won
0% (0/5)100% (5/5)

Chances of winning


Jannik Sinner
62.9%
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.2% 39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65% 35%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jannik Sinner than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-2.1%)
  • Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.53
    (1.58)

    2.57
    (2.39)
    4.2%
    (5.4%)
    What is the prediction for Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
  • Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 36 - 67.9%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 17 - 32.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 55.3%80.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Jannik Sinner will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 2.
    • In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.
    • Sinner may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Sinner will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • We predict that Sinner will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.
    • In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:26. (average 1.5:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:
    13.07.2025 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 3:1
    08.06.2025 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:3
    18.05.2025 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2
    19.10.2024 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:1
    02.10.2024 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2
    Latest results of Jannik Sinner
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Galan D. E. (Q)Kopriva V.2 : 0
    3Baez S.Goffin D.2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (30)
    5Machac T. (19)Bye
    6Thompson J.Mannarino A. (Q)0 : 2
    7Martinez P.Jarry N. (WC)2 : 1
    8ByePaul T. (13)
    9Ruud C. (11)Bye
    10Rinderknech A.Borges N.2 : 0
    11Etcheverry T. M.Shang J.2 : 1
    12ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (23)
    13Tsitsipas S. (25)Bye
    14Smith C. (Q)Marozsan F.1 : 2
    15Bonzi B.Arnaldi M.2 : 1
    16ByeMusetti L. (8)
    17Fritz T. (4)Bye
    18Coric B.Nava E. (Q)0 : 2
    19Bergs Z.Fearnley J.2 : 0
    20ByeSonego L. (31)
    21Davidovich Fokina A. (17)Bye
    22Fonseca J.Bu Y.2 : 1
    23Atmane T. (Q)Nishioka Y.2 : 0
    24ByeCobolli F. (15)
    25Tiafoe F. (10)Bye
    26Carballes Baena R.Gaston H.2 : 1
    27Mpetshi Perricard G.Wong C. (Q)0 : 2
    28ByeHumbert U. (20)
    29Michelsen A. (28)Bye
    30Moutet C.McDonald M.2 : 0
    31Safiullin R.Tabilo A.2 : 0
    32ByeRune H. (7)
    33Shelton B. (5)Bye
    34Ugo Carabelli C.Nishikori K.2 : 0
    35Altmaier D.Bautista-Agut R.0 : 2
    36ByeNorrie C. (32)
    37Lehecka J. (22)Bye
    38Boyer T. (WC)Holt B. (WC)2 : 0
    39Walton A.Navone M. (LL)2 : 1
    40ByeMedvedev D. (12)
    41Khachanov K. (14)Bye
    42Ofner S. (PR)Royer V. (Q)1 : 2
    43Brooksby J. (WC)Muller A.2 : 1
    44ByeCazaux A. (LL)
    45Nakashima B. (27)Bye
    46Giron M.Blockx A. (Q)1 : 2
    47Vukic A. (LL)Basavareddy N. (WC)0 : 2
    48ByeZverev A. (3)
    49De Minaur A. (6)Bye
    50Dellien H.Opelka R.0 : 2
    51Comesana F.Munar J.2 : 0
    52ByeDarderi L. (29)
    53Popyrin A. (21)Bye
    54Landaluce M. (Q)Kypson P. (Q)2 : 1
    55Tien L.Riedi L. (Q)2 : 0
    56ByeRublev A. (9)
    57Mensik J. (16)Bye
    58Kecmanovic M.Quinn E.0 : 2
    59Nardi L. (LL)Tirante T. A. (Q)2 : 0
    60ByeShapovalov D. (24)
    61Griekspoor T. (26)Bye
    62Medjedovic H.Kovacevic A.2 : 0
    63Bellucci M.Dzumhur D.0 : 2
    64ByeAlcaraz C. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Galan D. E.2 : 0
    2Baez S.Diallo G. (30)0 : 2
    3Machac T. (19)Mannarino A.0 : 2
    4Martinez P.Paul T. (13)0 : 2
    5Ruud C. (11)Rinderknech A.1 : 2
    6Etcheverry T. M.Auger-Aliassime F. (23)0 : 2
    7Tsitsipas S. (25)Marozsan F.2 : 0
    8Bonzi B.Musetti L. (8)2 : 1
    9Fritz T. (4)Nava E.2 : 0
    10Bergs Z.Sonego L. (31)0 : 2
    11Davidovich Fokina A. (RET.) (17)Fonseca J.1 : 0
    12Atmane T.Cobolli F. (15)2 : 1
    13Tiafoe F. (10)Carballes Baena R.2 : 0
    14Wong C.Humbert U. (20)0 : 2
    15Michelsen A. (28)Moutet C.2 : 1
    16Safiullin R.Rune H. (7)0 : 2
    17Shelton B. (5)Ugo Carabelli C. (RET.)1 : 0
    18Bautista-Agut R.Norrie C. (32)2 : 0
    19Lehecka J. (22)Boyer T.2 : 1
    20Walton A.Medvedev D. (12)2 : 1
    21Khachanov K. (14)Royer V.2 : 0
    22Brooksby J.Cazaux A.2 : 0
    23Nakashima B. (27)Blockx A.2 : 1
    24Basavareddy N.Zverev A. (3)0 : 2
    25De Minaur A. (6)Opelka R.0 : 2
    26Comesana F.Darderi L. (RET.) (29)1 : 0
    27Popyrin A. (21)Landaluce M.2 : 0
    28Tien L.Rublev A. (9)0 : 2
    29Mensik J. (16)Quinn E.2 : 0
    30Nardi L.Shapovalov D. (24)2 : 1
    31Griekspoor T. (26)Medjedovic H.0 : 2
    32Dzumhur D.Alcaraz C. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Diallo G. (30)2 : 0
    2Mannarino A.Paul T. (13)2 : 1
    3Rinderknech A. (RET.)Auger-Aliassime F. (23)0 : 1
    4Tsitsipas S. (25)Bonzi B.1 : 2
    5Fritz T. (4)Sonego L. (31)2 : 0
    6Fonseca J.Atmane T.0 : 2
    7Tiafoe F. (10)Humbert U. (20)2 : 0
    8Michelsen A. (28)Rune H. (7)0 : 2
    9Shelton B. (5)Bautista-Agut R.2 : 0
    10Lehecka J. (22)Walton A.2 : 0
    11Khachanov K. (14)Brooksby J.2 : 0
    12Nakashima B. (27)Zverev A. (3)0 : 2
    13Opelka R.Comesana F.1 : 2
    14Popyrin A. (21)Rublev A. (9)1 : 2
    15Mensik J. (RET.) (16)Nardi L.0 : 1
    16Medjedovic H.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Mannarino A.2 : 0
    2Auger-Aliassime F. (23)Bonzi B.2 : 0
    3Fritz T. (4)Atmane T.1 : 2
    4Tiafoe F. (RET.) (10)Rune H. (7)0 : 1
    5Shelton B. (5)Lehecka J. (22)2 : 0
    6Khachanov K. (RET.) (14)Zverev A. (3)0 : 1
    7Comesana F.Rublev A. (9)0 : 2
    8Nardi L.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Auger-Aliassime F. (23)2 : 0
    2Atmane T.Rune H. (7)2 : 0
    3Shelton B. (5)Zverev A. (3)0 : 2
    4Rublev A. (9)Alcaraz C. (2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Atmane T.2 : 0
    2Zverev A. (3)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Sinner J. (RET.) (1)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 0
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