Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

08/06/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Court Philippe-Chatrier (Paris).

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - Final

Match Stats


Aces
8	7
Double Faults
0	7
1st Serve Percentage
54%	58%
1st Serve Points Won
70% (72/103)	63% (71/113)
2nd Serve Points Won
50% (44/88)	57% (46/81)
Break Points Saved
50% (7/14)	53% (8/15)
Average 1st Serve Speed
199 km/h	192 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
153 km/h	165 km/h
1st Return Points Won
37% (42/113)	30% (31/103)
2nd Return Points Won
43% (35/81)	50% (44/88)
Break Points Converted
47% (7/15)	50% (7/14)
Winners
53	70
Unforced Errors
64	73
Net Points Won
67% (30/45)	67% (22/33)
Service Points Won
61% (116/191)	60% (117/194)
Return Points Won
40% (77/194)	39% (75/191)
Total Points Won
50% (193/385)	50% (192/385)
Last 10 Balls
2	8
Match Points Saved
0	3
Service Games Won
75% (21/28)	75% (21/28)
Return Games Won
25% (7/28)	25% (7/28)
Total Games Won
50% (28/56)	50% (28/56)

Chances of winning

Jannik Sinner
51.4%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jannik Sinner than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.99)		1.97 ↑ (1.85)	4.2% (4.3%)

What is the prediction for Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Users Predictions: 83 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 32 - 38.6%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 51 - 61.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 50.9% – 71.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Sinner (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 11 - 64.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:1.

Preview Facts

Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 1.
Sinner is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Alcaraz Garfia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 1.4:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Jannik Sinner won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Jannik Sinner has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Jannik Sinner?

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won 6 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:

18.05.2025 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2

19.10.2024 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:1

02.10.2024 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2

07.06.2024 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jannik Sinner 3:2

16.03.2024 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2

Latest results of Jannik Sinner

06.06.2025 Jannik Sinner - Novak Djokovic 3:0 ✺

04.06.2025 Jannik Sinner - Alexander Bublik 3:0 ✺

02.06.2025 Jannik Sinner - Andrey Rublev 3:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Jannik Sinner - Jiri Lehecka 3:0 ✺

29.05.2025 Jannik Sinner - Richard Gasquet 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

06.06.2025 Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Musetti L. retired ✺

03.06.2025 Tommy Paul - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:3 ✺

01.06.2025 Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:3 ✺

30.05.2025 Damir Dzumhur - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:3 ✺

28.05.2025 Fabian Marozsan - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:3 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Rinderknech A.	3 : 0
2	Atmane T. (WC)	Gasquet R. (WC)	1 : 3
3	Lehecka J.	Thompson J.	3 : 0
4	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	Davidovich Fokina A. (26)	1 : 3
5	Rublev A. (17)	Harris L. (Q)	3 : 1
6	Marterer M. (Q)	Walton A.	2 : 3
7	Ugo Carabelli C.	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Jarry N.	Fils A. (14)	1 : 3
9	De Minaur A. (9)	Djere L.	3 : 0
10	Bublik A.	Duckworth J.	3 : 0
11	Basilashvili N. (Q)	Rocha H. (Q)	2 : 3
12	Muller A.	Mensik J. (19)	1 : 3
13	Hurkacz H. (30)	Fonseca J.	0 : 3
14	Herbert P. (WC)	Bonzi B.	3 : 2
15	Monfils G.	Dellien H.	3 : 2
16	Bellucci M.	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tien L.	3 : 0
18	De Jong J.	Passaro F.	3 : 2
19	Cilic M. (LL)	Cobolli F.	0 : 3
20	Arnaldi M.	Auger-Aliassime F. (29)	3 : 2
21	Cerundolo F. (18)	Diallo G.	0 : 3
22	Giron M.	Griekspoor T.	1 : 3
23	Shevchenko A. (LL)	Lajovic D.	3 : 0
24	Quinn E. (Q)	Dimitrov G. (RET.) (16)	1 : 2
25	Medvedev D. (11)	Norrie C.	2 : 3
26	Kovacevic A.	Gomez F. A. (LL)	1 : 3
27	Fearnley J.	Wawrinka S. (WC)	3 : 0
28	O'Connell C.	Humbert U. (22)	0 : 3
29	Shapovalov D. (27)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
30	Misolic F. (Q)	Bu Y.	3 : 1
31	Moutet C.	Tabur C. (Q)	3 : 0
32	McDonald M.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
33	Musetti L. (8)	Hanfmann Y. (Q)	3 : 0
34	Royer V. (WC)	Galan D. E. (LL)	2 : 3
35	Opelka R.	Hijikata R.	3 : 1
36	Navone M.	Nakashima B. (28)	3 : 1
37	Machac T. (RET.) (21)	Halys Q.	0 : 1
38	Kecmanovic M.	Baez S.	3 : 2
39	Nava E. (WC)	Van De Zandschulp B.	3 : 0
40	Bautista-Agut R.	Rune H. (10)	1 : 3
41	Tiafoe F. (15)	Safiullin R.	3 : 0
42	Carreno-Busta P.	Comesana F.	3 : 0
43	Brooksby J.	Faria J.	3 : 1
44	Darderi L.	Korda S. (23)	1 : 3
45	Michelsen A. (32)	Cerundolo J. M. (Q)	0 : 3
46	Majchrzak K.	Medjedovic H.	0 : 3
47	Kopriva V.	Monteiro T.	3 : 2
48	Altmaier D.	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
49	Ruud C. (7)	Ramos A. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Jacquet K. (Q)	Borges N.	2 : 3
51	Tabilo A.	Cazaux A. (WC)	3 : 2
52	Nishioka Y. (RET.)	Popyrin A. (25)	0 : 2
53	Khachanov K. (24)	Vukic A.	3 : 0
54	Ofner S.	Struff J-L.	3 : 1
55	Fucsovics M.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	3 : 0
56	Moller E. (LL)	Paul T. (12)	1 : 3
57	Shelton B. (13)	Sonego L.	3 : 2
58	Gaston H.	Blanchet U. (Q)	3 : 2
59	Hassan B. (Q)	Gigante M. (Q)	0 : 3
60	Etcheverry T. M.	Tsitsipas S. (20)	0 : 3
61	Mpetshi Perricard G. (31)	Bergs Z.	3 : 1
62	Tirante T. A. (LL)	Dzumhur D.	1 : 3
63	Marozsan F.	Nardi L.	3 : 0
64	Zeppieri G. (Q)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Gasquet R.	3 : 0
2	Lehecka J.	Davidovich Fokina A. (26)	3 : 1
3	Rublev A. (17)	Walton A.	3 : 0
4	Munar J.	Fils A. (14)	2 : 3
5	De Minaur A. (9)	Bublik A.	2 : 3
6	Rocha H.	Mensik J. (19)	3 : 2
7	Fonseca J.	Herbert P.	3 : 0
8	Monfils G.	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
9	Zverev A. (3)	De Jong J.	3 : 1
10	Cobolli F.	Arnaldi M.	3 : 1
11	Diallo G.	Griekspoor T.	1 : 3
12	Shevchenko A.	Quinn E.	2 : 3
13	Norrie C.	Gomez F. A.	3 : 0
14	Fearnley J.	Humbert U. (RET.) (22)	1 : 0
15	Shapovalov D. (27)	Misolic F.	2 : 3
16	Moutet C.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
17	Musetti L. (8)	Galan D. E.	3 : 0
18	Opelka R.	Navone M.	0 : 3
19	Halys Q.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 1
20	Nava E.	Rune H. (10)	0 : 3
21	Tiafoe F. (15)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
22	Brooksby J.	Korda S. (23)	0 : 3
23	Cerundolo J. M.	Medjedovic H.	0 : 3
24	Kopriva V.	Altmaier D.	1 : 3
25	Ruud C. (7)	Borges N.	1 : 3
26	Tabilo A.	Popyrin A. (25)	0 : 3
27	Khachanov K. (24)	Ofner S.	3 : 2
28	Fucsovics M.	Paul T. (12)	2 : 3
29	Shelton B. (WO.) (13)	Gaston H.
30	Gigante M.	Tsitsipas S. (20)	3 : 1
31	Mpetshi Perricard G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	1 : 3
32	Marozsan F.	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Lehecka J.	3 : 0
2	Rublev A. (WO.) (17)	Fils A. (14)
3	Bublik A.	Rocha H.	3 : 0
4	Fonseca J.	Draper J. (5)	0 : 3
5	Zverev A. (3)	Cobolli F.	3 : 0
6	Griekspoor T.	Quinn E.	3 : 2
7	Norrie C.	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
8	Misolic F.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (8)	Navone M.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Rune H. (10)	2 : 3
11	Tiafoe F. (15)	Korda S. (23)	3 : 0
12	Medjedovic H.	Altmaier D.	1 : 3
13	Borges N.	Popyrin A. (25)	0 : 3
14	Khachanov K. (24)	Paul T. (12)	2 : 3
15	Shelton B. (13)	Gigante M.	3 : 0
16	Dzumhur D.	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Rublev A. (17)	3 : 0
2	Bublik A.	Draper J. (5)	3 : 1
3	Zverev A. (3)	Griekspoor T. (RET.)	1 : 0
4	Norrie C.	Djokovic N. (6)	0 : 3
5	Musetti L. (8)	Rune H. (10)	3 : 1
6	Tiafoe F. (15)	Altmaier D.	3 : 0
7	Popyrin A. (25)	Paul T. (12)	0 : 3
8	Shelton B. (13)	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A.	3 : 0
2	Zverev A. (3)	Djokovic N. (6)	1 : 3
3	Musetti L. (8)	Tiafoe F. (15)	3 : 1
4	Paul T. (12)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Djokovic N. (6)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (RET.) (8)	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 2

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

2 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 1, Max, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, Max
Finland	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, Max
France	France TV Rolan Garros, Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Serbia	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max
Switzerland	RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF Info, SRF Info
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1
Usa	Max