Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

15/08/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Quarter-finals

Match Stats


Aces
11	11
Double Faults
8	4
1st Serve Percentage
63%	62%
1st Serve Points Won
70% (43/61)	75% (40/53)
2nd Serve Points Won
47% (17/36)	52% (17/33)
Break Points Saved
33% (2/6)	0% (0/2)
Average 1st Serve Speed
198 km/h	196 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
161 km/h	166 km/h
1st Return Points Won
30% (16/53)	30% (18/61)
2nd Return Points Won
48% (16/33)	53% (19/36)
Break Points Converted
100% (2/2)	67% (4/6)
Winners
27	27
Unforced Errors
34	32
Net Points Won
67% (8/12)	130% (13/10)
Service Points Won
63% (60/95)	66% (57/86)
Return Points Won
34% (29/86)	37% (35/95)
Total Points Won
49% (89/181)	51% (92/181)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
75% (12/16)	87% (13/15)
Return Games Won
13% (2/15)	25% (4/16)
Total Games Won
45% (14/31)	55% (17/31)

Chances of winning

Andrey Rublev
21.5%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
78.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

79.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.39 ↓ (4.55)		1.21 ↑ (1.2)	5.3% (5.3%)

What is the prediction for Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 58% – 94.4%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Rublev is ranked ATP: 11. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
Right now, both players are showing solid form.
Rublev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is seen as the favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rublev won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Andrey Rublev won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Andrey Rublev has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Andrey Rublev?

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:

06.07.2025 Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:3

13.11.2024 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev 2:0

01.05.2024 Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:1

15.11.2023 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev 2:0

17.12.2022 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Andrey Rublev 0:2

Latest results of Andrey Rublev

13.08.2025 Francisco Comesana - Andrey Rublev 0:2 ✺

12.08.2025 Alexei Popyrin - Andrey Rublev 1:2 ✺

10.08.2025 Learner Tien - Andrey Rublev 0:2 ✺

05.08.2025 Andrey Rublev - Taylor Harry Fritz 0:2 ✺

03.08.2025 Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Davidovich Fokina A. retired ✺

Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

13.08.2025 Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

12.08.2025 Hamad Medjedovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

10.08.2025 Damir Dzumhur - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2 ✺

13.07.2025 Jannik Sinner - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 3:1 ✺

11.07.2025 Taylor Harry Fritz - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:3 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bye
2	Galan D. E. (Q)	Kopriva V.	2 : 0
3	Baez S.	Goffin D.	2 : 0
4	Bye	Diallo G. (30)
5	Machac T. (19)	Bye
6	Thompson J.	Mannarino A. (Q)	0 : 2
7	Martinez P.	Jarry N. (WC)	2 : 1
8	Bye	Paul T. (13)
9	Ruud C. (11)	Bye
10	Rinderknech A.	Borges N.	2 : 0
11	Etcheverry T. M.	Shang J.	2 : 1
12	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (23)
13	Tsitsipas S. (25)	Bye
14	Smith C. (Q)	Marozsan F.	1 : 2
15	Bonzi B.	Arnaldi M.	2 : 1
16	Bye	Musetti L. (8)
17	Fritz T. (4)	Bye
18	Coric B.	Nava E. (Q)	0 : 2
19	Bergs Z.	Fearnley J.	2 : 0
20	Bye	Sonego L. (31)
21	Davidovich Fokina A. (17)	Bye
22	Fonseca J.	Bu Y.	2 : 1
23	Atmane T. (Q)	Nishioka Y.	2 : 0
24	Bye	Cobolli F. (15)
25	Tiafoe F. (10)	Bye
26	Carballes Baena R.	Gaston H.	2 : 1
27	Mpetshi Perricard G.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 2
28	Bye	Humbert U. (20)
29	Michelsen A. (28)	Bye
30	Moutet C.	McDonald M.	2 : 0
31	Safiullin R.	Tabilo A.	2 : 0
32	Bye	Rune H. (7)
33	Shelton B. (5)	Bye
34	Ugo Carabelli C.	Nishikori K.	2 : 0
35	Altmaier D.	Bautista-Agut R.	0 : 2
36	Bye	Norrie C. (32)
37	Lehecka J. (22)	Bye
38	Boyer T. (WC)	Holt B. (WC)	2 : 0
39	Walton A.	Navone M. (LL)	2 : 1
40	Bye	Medvedev D. (12)
41	Khachanov K. (14)	Bye
42	Ofner S. (PR)	Royer V. (Q)	1 : 2
43	Brooksby J. (WC)	Muller A.	2 : 1
44	Bye	Cazaux A. (LL)
45	Nakashima B. (27)	Bye
46	Giron M.	Blockx A. (Q)	1 : 2
47	Vukic A. (LL)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	0 : 2
48	Bye	Zverev A. (3)
49	De Minaur A. (6)	Bye
50	Dellien H.	Opelka R.	0 : 2
51	Comesana F.	Munar J.	2 : 0
52	Bye	Darderi L. (29)
53	Popyrin A. (21)	Bye
54	Landaluce M. (Q)	Kypson P. (Q)	2 : 1
55	Tien L.	Riedi L. (Q)	2 : 0
56	Bye	Rublev A. (9)
57	Mensik J. (16)	Bye
58	Kecmanovic M.	Quinn E.	0 : 2
59	Nardi L. (LL)	Tirante T. A. (Q)	2 : 0
60	Bye	Shapovalov D. (24)
61	Griekspoor T. (26)	Bye
62	Medjedovic H.	Kovacevic A.	2 : 0
63	Bellucci M.	Dzumhur D.	0 : 2
64	Bye	Alcaraz C. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Galan D. E.	2 : 0
2	Baez S.	Diallo G. (30)	0 : 2
3	Machac T. (19)	Mannarino A.	0 : 2
4	Martinez P.	Paul T. (13)	0 : 2
5	Ruud C. (11)	Rinderknech A.	1 : 2
6	Etcheverry T. M.	Auger-Aliassime F. (23)	0 : 2
7	Tsitsipas S. (25)	Marozsan F.	2 : 0
8	Bonzi B.	Musetti L. (8)	2 : 1
9	Fritz T. (4)	Nava E.	2 : 0
10	Bergs Z.	Sonego L. (31)	0 : 2
11	Davidovich Fokina A. (RET.) (17)	Fonseca J.	1 : 0
12	Atmane T.	Cobolli F. (15)	2 : 1
13	Tiafoe F. (10)	Carballes Baena R.	2 : 0
14	Wong C.	Humbert U. (20)	0 : 2
15	Michelsen A. (28)	Moutet C.	2 : 1
16	Safiullin R.	Rune H. (7)	0 : 2
17	Shelton B. (5)	Ugo Carabelli C. (RET.)	1 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Norrie C. (32)	2 : 0
19	Lehecka J. (22)	Boyer T.	2 : 1
20	Walton A.	Medvedev D. (12)	2 : 1
21	Khachanov K. (14)	Royer V.	2 : 0
22	Brooksby J.	Cazaux A.	2 : 0
23	Nakashima B. (27)	Blockx A.	2 : 1
24	Basavareddy N.	Zverev A. (3)	0 : 2
25	De Minaur A. (6)	Opelka R.	0 : 2
26	Comesana F.	Darderi L. (RET.) (29)	1 : 0
27	Popyrin A. (21)	Landaluce M.	2 : 0
28	Tien L.	Rublev A. (9)	0 : 2
29	Mensik J. (16)	Quinn E.	2 : 0
30	Nardi L.	Shapovalov D. (24)	2 : 1
31	Griekspoor T. (26)	Medjedovic H.	0 : 2
32	Dzumhur D.	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Diallo G. (30)	2 : 0
2	Mannarino A.	Paul T. (13)	2 : 1
3	Rinderknech A. (RET.)	Auger-Aliassime F. (23)	0 : 1
4	Tsitsipas S. (25)	Bonzi B.	1 : 2
5	Fritz T. (4)	Sonego L. (31)	2 : 0
6	Fonseca J.	Atmane T.	0 : 2
7	Tiafoe F. (10)	Humbert U. (20)	2 : 0
8	Michelsen A. (28)	Rune H. (7)	0 : 2
9	Shelton B. (5)	Bautista-Agut R.	2 : 0
10	Lehecka J. (22)	Walton A.	2 : 0
11	Khachanov K. (14)	Brooksby J.	2 : 0
12	Nakashima B. (27)	Zverev A. (3)	0 : 2
13	Opelka R.	Comesana F.	1 : 2
14	Popyrin A. (21)	Rublev A. (9)	1 : 2
15	Mensik J. (RET.) (16)	Nardi L.	0 : 1
16	Medjedovic H.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Mannarino A.	2 : 0
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (23)	Bonzi B.	2 : 0
3	Fritz T. (4)	Atmane T.	1 : 2
4	Tiafoe F. (RET.) (10)	Rune H. (7)	0 : 1
5	Shelton B. (5)	Lehecka J. (22)	2 : 0
6	Khachanov K. (RET.) (14)	Zverev A. (3)	0 : 1
7	Comesana F.	Rublev A. (9)	0 : 2
8	Nardi L.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Auger-Aliassime F. (23)	2 : 0
2	Atmane T.	Rune H. (7)	2 : 0
3	Shelton B. (5)	Zverev A. (3)	0 : 2
4	Rublev A. (9)	Alcaraz C. (2)	1 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Atmane T.	2 : 0
2	Zverev A. (3)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 2

Final

1

Sinner J. (RET.) (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

0 : 0

Which TV channels are streaming of Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including: