Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis ATP Cincinnati Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
Result
0:2
16/08/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - Semi-finals
Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
311
Double Faults
14
1st Serve Percentage
76%53%
1st Serve Points Won
53% (25/47)81% (22/27)
2nd Serve Points Won
47% (7/15)63% (15/24)
Break Points Saved
33% (2/6)80% (4/5)
Average 1st Serve Speed
205 km/h194 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
172 km/h161 km/h
1st Return Points Won
22% (6/27)47% (22/47)
2nd Return Points Won
38% (9/24)53% (8/15)
Break Points Converted
20% (1/5)67% (4/6)
Winners
927
Unforced Errors
2424
Net Points Won
57% (8/14)75% (6/8)
Service Points Won
52% (32/61)73% (37/51)
Return Points Won
27% (14/51)48% (29/61)
Total Points Won
41% (46/112)59% (66/112)
Last 10 Balls
010
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
60% (6/10)89% (8/9)
Return Games Won
11% (1/9)40% (4/10)
Total Games Won
37% (7/19)63% (12/19)

Chances of winning


Alexander Zverev
37.3%
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.6% 68.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27% 73%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alexander Zverev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexander Zverev's performance.
  • Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexander Zverev than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexander Zverev that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (+10.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlos Alcaraz Garfia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.56
    (2.94)

    1.51
    (1.36)
    5.3%
    (7.5%)
    What is the prediction for Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
  • Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Zverev will win (votes: 19 - 50%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 19 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Zverev: 34.1%65.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Zverev (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Alcaraz Garfia (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +2.5 Games - Zverev (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Zverev is ranked ATP: 3. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 2.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zverev won 3.
    • Recent performances by Zverev have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Alcaraz Garfia is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Zverev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Alcaraz Garfia will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • We predict that Alcaraz Garfia will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Zverev won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.5:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:
    15.11.2024 Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:0
    09.06.2024 Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:3
    14.03.2024 Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2
    24.01.2024 Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 3:1
    13.11.2023 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexander Zverev 1:2
    Latest results of Alexander Zverev
    Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Galan D. E. (Q)Kopriva V.2 : 0
    3Baez S.Goffin D.2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (30)
    5Machac T. (19)Bye
    6Thompson J.Mannarino A. (Q)0 : 2
    7Martinez P.Jarry N. (WC)2 : 1
    8ByePaul T. (13)
    9Ruud C. (11)Bye
    10Rinderknech A.Borges N.2 : 0
    11Etcheverry T. M.Shang J.2 : 1
    12ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (23)
    13Tsitsipas S. (25)Bye
    14Smith C. (Q)Marozsan F.1 : 2
    15Bonzi B.Arnaldi M.2 : 1
    16ByeMusetti L. (8)
    17Fritz T. (4)Bye
    18Coric B.Nava E. (Q)0 : 2
    19Bergs Z.Fearnley J.2 : 0
    20ByeSonego L. (31)
    21Davidovich Fokina A. (17)Bye
    22Fonseca J.Bu Y.2 : 1
    23Atmane T. (Q)Nishioka Y.2 : 0
    24ByeCobolli F. (15)
    25Tiafoe F. (10)Bye
    26Carballes Baena R.Gaston H.2 : 1
    27Mpetshi Perricard G.Wong C. (Q)0 : 2
    28ByeHumbert U. (20)
    29Michelsen A. (28)Bye
    30Moutet C.McDonald M.2 : 0
    31Safiullin R.Tabilo A.2 : 0
    32ByeRune H. (7)
    33Shelton B. (5)Bye
    34Ugo Carabelli C.Nishikori K.2 : 0
    35Altmaier D.Bautista-Agut R.0 : 2
    36ByeNorrie C. (32)
    37Lehecka J. (22)Bye
    38Boyer T. (WC)Holt B. (WC)2 : 0
    39Walton A.Navone M. (LL)2 : 1
    40ByeMedvedev D. (12)
    41Khachanov K. (14)Bye
    42Ofner S. (PR)Royer V. (Q)1 : 2
    43Brooksby J. (WC)Muller A.2 : 1
    44ByeCazaux A. (LL)
    45Nakashima B. (27)Bye
    46Giron M.Blockx A. (Q)1 : 2
    47Vukic A. (LL)Basavareddy N. (WC)0 : 2
    48ByeZverev A. (3)
    49De Minaur A. (6)Bye
    50Dellien H.Opelka R.0 : 2
    51Comesana F.Munar J.2 : 0
    52ByeDarderi L. (29)
    53Popyrin A. (21)Bye
    54Landaluce M. (Q)Kypson P. (Q)2 : 1
    55Tien L.Riedi L. (Q)2 : 0
    56ByeRublev A. (9)
    57Mensik J. (16)Bye
    58Kecmanovic M.Quinn E.0 : 2
    59Nardi L. (LL)Tirante T. A. (Q)2 : 0
    60ByeShapovalov D. (24)
    61Griekspoor T. (26)Bye
    62Medjedovic H.Kovacevic A.2 : 0
    63Bellucci M.Dzumhur D.0 : 2
    64ByeAlcaraz C. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Galan D. E.2 : 0
    2Baez S.Diallo G. (30)0 : 2
    3Machac T. (19)Mannarino A.0 : 2
    4Martinez P.Paul T. (13)0 : 2
    5Ruud C. (11)Rinderknech A.1 : 2
    6Etcheverry T. M.Auger-Aliassime F. (23)0 : 2
    7Tsitsipas S. (25)Marozsan F.2 : 0
    8Bonzi B.Musetti L. (8)2 : 1
    9Fritz T. (4)Nava E.2 : 0
    10Bergs Z.Sonego L. (31)0 : 2
    11Davidovich Fokina A. (RET.) (17)Fonseca J.1 : 0
    12Atmane T.Cobolli F. (15)2 : 1
    13Tiafoe F. (10)Carballes Baena R.2 : 0
    14Wong C.Humbert U. (20)0 : 2
    15Michelsen A. (28)Moutet C.2 : 1
    16Safiullin R.Rune H. (7)0 : 2
    17Shelton B. (5)Ugo Carabelli C. (RET.)1 : 0
    18Bautista-Agut R.Norrie C. (32)2 : 0
    19Lehecka J. (22)Boyer T.2 : 1
    20Walton A.Medvedev D. (12)2 : 1
    21Khachanov K. (14)Royer V.2 : 0
    22Brooksby J.Cazaux A.2 : 0
    23Nakashima B. (27)Blockx A.2 : 1
    24Basavareddy N.Zverev A. (3)0 : 2
    25De Minaur A. (6)Opelka R.0 : 2
    26Comesana F.Darderi L. (RET.) (29)1 : 0
    27Popyrin A. (21)Landaluce M.2 : 0
    28Tien L.Rublev A. (9)0 : 2
    29Mensik J. (16)Quinn E.2 : 0
    30Nardi L.Shapovalov D. (24)2 : 1
    31Griekspoor T. (26)Medjedovic H.0 : 2
    32Dzumhur D.Alcaraz C. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Diallo G. (30)2 : 0
    2Mannarino A.Paul T. (13)2 : 1
    3Rinderknech A. (RET.)Auger-Aliassime F. (23)0 : 1
    4Tsitsipas S. (25)Bonzi B.1 : 2
    5Fritz T. (4)Sonego L. (31)2 : 0
    6Fonseca J.Atmane T.0 : 2
    7Tiafoe F. (10)Humbert U. (20)2 : 0
    8Michelsen A. (28)Rune H. (7)0 : 2
    9Shelton B. (5)Bautista-Agut R.2 : 0
    10Lehecka J. (22)Walton A.2 : 0
    11Khachanov K. (14)Brooksby J.2 : 0
    12Nakashima B. (27)Zverev A. (3)0 : 2
    13Opelka R.Comesana F.1 : 2
    14Popyrin A. (21)Rublev A. (9)1 : 2
    15Mensik J. (RET.) (16)Nardi L.0 : 1
    16Medjedovic H.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Mannarino A.2 : 0
    2Auger-Aliassime F. (23)Bonzi B.2 : 0
    3Fritz T. (4)Atmane T.1 : 2
    4Tiafoe F. (RET.) (10)Rune H. (7)0 : 1
    5Shelton B. (5)Lehecka J. (22)2 : 0
    6Khachanov K. (RET.) (14)Zverev A. (3)0 : 1
    7Comesana F.Rublev A. (9)0 : 2
    8Nardi L.Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Auger-Aliassime F. (23)2 : 0
    2Atmane T.Rune H. (7)2 : 0
    3Shelton B. (5)Zverev A. (3)0 : 2
    4Rublev A. (9)Alcaraz C. (2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Atmane T.2 : 0
    2Zverev A. (3)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Sinner J. (RET.) (1)Alcaraz C. (2)0 : 0
    Which TV channels are streaming of Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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