Result
1:5
01/02/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- ENGLAND: League Two - Round 30
- Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 2.07 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots off Goal |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Touches in the Opposition Box |
|---|
| 24 | 26 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (387/467) | 72% (246/340) |
| Passes in the final third |
|---|
| 66% (77/116) | 59% (67/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (8/34) | 16% (3/19) |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 85% (11/13) |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 29 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 29', Clarke O. ↓, Drinan A. ↑,
- 36', Jones J. 🟨,
- 45+2', 0 - 1, Butterworth D. ⚽, Nichols T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 4)
- 47', 0 - 2, Drinan A. ⚽,
- 54', Embleton E. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
- 62', Nichols T. ↓, Cotterill J. ↑,
- 64', Smith H. 🟨,
- 67', Jones J. 🟨,
- 67', 🟨,
- 70', Patching W. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
- 74', Smith H. ↓, Westley J. ↑,
- 74', Ofoborh N. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
- 75', Butterworth D. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
- 80', Whelan C. ↓, Robson E. ↑,
- 81', Harris K. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
- 83', 0 - 3, Westley J. ⚽, Glatzel P. (A),
- 88', 1 - 3, Hugill J. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
- 89', Delaney R. 🟨,
- 90', 1 - 4, Glatzel P. ⚽, Tshimanga K. (A),
- 90+7', 1 - 5, Wright W. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Carlisle United
37.2% | Draw
29.4% | Swindon Town
33.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swindon Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Carlisle United - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.53 ↑
(2.1) |
3.2 ↓
(3.41) |
2.83 ↓
(3.31) |
6.1%
(7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Swindon Town?
Users Predictions:
Swindon Town will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 16).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3.
- Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Swindon is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Swindon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Recently Carlisle have a series of guest games.
- Recently Swindon have a series of home games.
- The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
- Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21:22 (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1.1:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Swindon Town?
Carlisle United has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Carlisle United?
Swindon Town has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Swindon Town were as follows:
21.09.2024
Swindon Town
-
Carlisle United
0:2
11.03.2023
Swindon Town
-
Carlisle United
1:2
Latest results of Carlisle United
Latest results of Swindon Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Fleetwood | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Chesterfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Tranmere | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:1 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | MK Dons | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Bromley | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Harrogate | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Newport | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Swindon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cambridge Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Walsall | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Salford | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Colchester | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Oldham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Notts Co | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Accrington | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:4 | -4 | 1 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:3 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Cheltenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Barrow | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Crawley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
| 24 | Barnet | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ League Two
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
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