Burnley vs Derby County: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer English League Cup Burnley - Derby County
Result
2:1
26/08/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : EFL Cup - 1/32-finals
  • Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
Burnley - Derby County - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.86
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
138
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
86% (441/511)84% (348/414)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.86
xG on target (xGOT)
1.440.50
Total shots
138
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
96
Shots outside the Box
42
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
2817
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
106
Passes
86% (441/511)84% (348/414)
Long passes
56% (28/50)41% (21/51)
Passes in final third
79% (124/157)64% (47/73)
Crosses
9% (2/22)38% (5/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.570.60
Throw-ins
1813
Fouls
611
Tackles
87% (13/15)50% (6/12)
Duels won
5242
Clearances
2631
Interceptions
817
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.501.44
Goals prevented
-0.50-0.56

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 4', 1 - 0, Ramsey A. , Broja A. (A),
  • 35', 1 - 1, Clark B. , Elder C. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Elder C. , Clarke M. ,
  • 46', Humphreys B. , Tuanzebe A. ,
  • 56', Adams E. 🟨,
  • 62', Osborn B. , Thompson L. ,
  • 62', Brewster R. , Weimann A. ,
  • 62', Clark B. , Brown D. ,
  • 62', Tchaouna L. , Banel J. ,
  • 63', Broja A. , Barnes A. ,
  • 70', Ward J. , Wilson K. ,
  • 78', Flemming Z. , Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ,
  • 90+1', 2 - 1, Sonne O. , Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (A),
  • 90+4', Ramsey A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Burnley
67.3%
Draw
21%
Derby County
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.3% 22.9% 16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7% 25.3% 15.1%

Burnley - Derby County Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
1.42
(1.56)
4.56
(4.11)
8.25
(5.63)
4.5%
(6.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Burnley - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Derby will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 59%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 50%). Derby (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.
  • Burnley is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Burnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • In this match, Burnley is the obvious favorite.
  • There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Humphreys B. (Thigh Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)
  • There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P. (Hernia) Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Ebuka C. (Injury) Langas S. (Knee Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)
  • There are questionable in Burnley: Broja A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Esteve M. (Injury) Tuanzebe A. (Muscle Injury) Ugochukwu L. (Injury)
  • There are questionable in Derby: Wilson K. (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:2. (average 1.4:0.2).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 1.6:0.2).
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Burnley - Derby County were as follows:
08.04.2025 Derby County - Burnley 0:0
10.12.2024 Burnley - Derby County 0:0
Latest results of Burnley
23.08.2025 Burnley - Sunderland 2:0
09.08.2025 Burnley - Lazio 0:1
02.08.2025 Stoke City - Burnley 1:0
26.07.2025 Shrewsbury Town - Burnley 2:2
Latest results of Derby County
Draw
Main

1/64-finals
1BirminghamSheffield Utd2 : 1
2BlackpoolPort Vale0 : 1
4ByeArsenal
5BarnsleyFleetwood3 : 2
6SalfordRotherham0 : 1
7Oxford UtdColchester1 : 0
8ByeBrighton
9LiverpoolBye
11WatfordNorwich1 : 2
12NorthamptonSouthampton0 : 1
13Crystal PalaceBye
15NewportMillwall0 : 1
16CoventryLuton1 : 0
17BarrowPreston0 : 1
18WrexhamHull4 : 3
19PortsmouthReading1 : 2
20GillinghamAFC Wimbledon1 : 2
21BurnleyBye
22West BromDerby1 : 2
23CardiffSwindon2 : 1
24CheltenhamExeter2 : 0
25WolvesBye
26ByeWest Ham
27EvertonBye
28ChesterfieldMansfield0 : 2
29TranmereBurton1 : 2
30HarrogateLincoln1 : 3
32ByeChelsea
33SwanseaCrawley3 : 1
34PlymouthQPR3 : 2
36ByeNottingham
37SunderlandBye
38HuddersfieldLeicester3 : 2
40ByeManchester City
41BoltonSheffield Wed3 : 4
42ByeLeeds
43GrimsbyShrewsbury3 : 1
44ByeManchester Utd
45BournemouthBye
46ByeBrentford
48ByeAston Villa
49NewcastleBye
51StokeWalsall1 : 0
52BlackburnBradford City1 : 2
53TottenhamBye
55AccringtonPeterborough2 : 1
56MiddlesbroughDoncaster0 : 4
57WiganNotts Co1 : 0
58Stockport CountyCrewe3 : 1
59BromleyIpswich2 : 1
60Leyton OrientWycombe0 : 1
61FulhamBye
62Bristol CityMK Dons2 : 0
63Bristol RoversCambridge Utd0 : 2
64CharltonStevenage3 : 1

1/32-finals
1BirminghamPort Vale0 : 1
2ByeArsenal
3BarnsleyRotherham2 : 1
4Oxford UtdBrighton0 : 6
5LiverpoolBye
6NorwichSouthampton0 : 3
7Crystal PalaceBye
8MillwallCoventry2 : 1
9PrestonWrexham2 : 3
10ReadingAFC Wimbledon2 : 1
11BurnleyDerby2 : 1
12CardiffCheltenham3 : 0
13WolvesWest Ham3 : 2
14EvertonMansfield2 : 0
15BurtonLincoln0 : 1
16ByeChelsea
17SwanseaPlymouth2 : 1
18ByeNottingham
19SunderlandHuddersfield1 : 2
20ByeManchester City
21Sheffield WedLeeds2 : 1
22GrimsbyManchester Utd3 : 2
23BournemouthBrentford0 : 2
24ByeAston Villa
25NewcastleBye
26StokeBradford City0 : 3
27TottenhamBye
28AccringtonDoncaster0 : 2
29WiganStockport County1 : 0
30BromleyWycombe1 : 2
31FulhamBristol City2 : 0
32Cambridge UtdCharlton3 : 1

1/16-finals
1Port ValeArsenal0 : 2
2BarnsleyBrighton0 : 6
3LiverpoolSouthampton2 : 1
4Crystal PalaceMillwall2 : 1
5WrexhamReading2 : 0
6BurnleyCardiff1 : 2
7WolvesEverton2 : 0
8LincolnChelsea1 : 2
9SwanseaNottingham3 : 2
10HuddersfieldManchester City0 : 2
11Sheffield WedGrimsby0 : 1
12BrentfordAston Villa2 : 1
13NewcastleBradford City4 : 1
14TottenhamDoncaster3 : 0
15WiganWycombe0 : 2
16FulhamCambridge Utd1 : 0

1/8-finals
1ArsenalBrighton2 : 0
2LiverpoolCrystal Palace0 : 3
3WrexhamCardiff1 : 2
4WolvesChelsea3 : 4
5SwanseaManchester City1 : 3
6GrimsbyBrentford0 : 5
7NewcastleTottenham2 : 0
8WycombeFulham1 : 2

Quarter-finals
1ArsenalCrystal Palace
2CardiffChelsea
3Manchester CityBrentford
4NewcastleFulham
Which TV channels are streaming of Burnley - Derby County?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
maltaMaltaTSN Malta 3
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports+
usaUsaParamount+
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