St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer German Bundesliga St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund
Result
3:3
23/08/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Bundesliga - Round 1
  • Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)
St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.281.43
Ball Possession
51%49%
Total shots
119
Shots on target
77
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
52
Passes
82% (396/482)86% (414/481)
Yellow Cards
23
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.281.43
xG on target (xGOT)
1.742.58
Total shots
119
Shots on target
77
Shots off target
31
Blocked Shots
11
Shots inside the Box
87
Shots outside the Box
31
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
52
Touches in opposition box
2618
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
43
Free Kicks
1213
Passes
82% (396/482)86% (414/481)
Long passes
43% (26/61)44% (19/43)
Passes in final third
70% (100/142)60% (49/82)
Crosses
21% (6/28)63% (5/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.881.81
Throw-ins
2317
Fouls
1312
Tackles
63% (12/19)63% (5/8)
Duels won
4240
Clearances
1445
Interceptions
68
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
44
xGOT faced
2.581.74
Goals prevented
-0.42-1.26

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 22', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
  • 26', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
  • 34', 0 - 1, Guirassy S. , Sabitzer M. (A),
  • 37', Smith E. 🟨,
  • 39', Guirassy S. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 2)
  • 46', Adeyemi K. , Brandt J. ,
  • 46', Bellingham J. , Nmecha F. ,
  • 50', 1 - 1, Hountondji A. , Sinani D. (A),
  • 65', Couto Y. 🟨,
  • 67', 1 - 2, Anton W. , Nmecha F. (A),
  • 68', Hountondji A. , Ceesay A. ,
  • 74', 1 - 3, Brandt J. , Gross P. (A),
  • 77', Pyrka A. , Saliakas M. ,
  • 77', Dzwigala A. , Metcalfe C. ,
  • 85', Mane F. 🟥,
  • 86', 2 - 3, Sinani D. (Pen),
  • 87', Gross P. , Ozcan S. ,
  • 88', Sands J. , Afolayan O. ,
  • 89', 3 - 3, Smith E. , Saliakas M. (A),
  • 90+3', Sabitzer M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


St. Pauli
19.5%
Draw
25.7%
Borussia Dortmund
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
21% 23.9% 55.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4% 24.6% 56.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
  • Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
  • St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    5.23
    (4.57)
    3.88
    (4.02)
    1.78
    (1.74)
    1.1%
    (4.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund?
  • Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (55 of 65 users predict this - 84.62%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 75.85%93.39%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Borussia Dortmund will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1.
    • St. Pauli is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Borussia D has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, Borussia D is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Groin Injury) Duranville J. (Shoulder Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Sule N. (Calf Injury)
    • There are questionable in Borussia D: Couto Y. (Knee Injury) Ryerson J. (Calf Injury)
    • In the last 6 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 1:2.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund were as follows:
    01.03.2025 St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund 0:2
    18.10.2024 Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli 2:1
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    09.08.2025 St. Pauli - Verona 1:0
    02.08.2025 Coventry City - St. Pauli 2:2
    26.07.2025 St. Pauli - Nice 2:0
    20.07.2025 St. Pauli - Karlsruher 6:1
    Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich11006:063
    2Eintracht Frankfurt11004:133
    3Wolfsburg11003:123
    4Augsburg11003:123
    5Union Berlin11002:113
    6Hoffenheim11002:113
    7Dortmund10103:301
    8St. Pauli10103:301
    9Hamburger SV00000:000
    10B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Bayer Leverkusen10011:2-10
    14Stuttgart10011:2-10
    15Freiburg10011:3-20
    16Heidenheim10011:3-20
    17Werder Bremen10011:4-30
    18RB Leipzig10010:6-60

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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