Daniil Medvedev vs Benjamin Bonzi: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

24/08/2025 at 20:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Louis Armstrong Stadium (New York, NY).

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Match Stats


Aces
21	7
Double Faults
10	4
1st Serve Percentage
60%	67%
1st Serve Points Won
76% (68/89)	69% (72/105)
2nd Serve Points Won
42% (25/60)	52% (27/52)
Break Points Saved
63% (10/16)	68% (13/19)
1st Return Points Won
31% (33/105)	25% (22/89)
2nd Return Points Won
48% (25/52)	58% (35/60)
Break Points Converted
32% (6/19)	38% (6/16)
Winners
55	36
Unforced Errors
64	64
Net Points Won
66% (27/41)	71% (22/31)
Service Points Won
62% (92/149)	63% (99/157)
Return Points Won
37% (58/157)	38% (57/149)
Total Points Won
49% (150/306)	51% (156/306)
Last 10 Balls
3	7
Match Points Saved
1	0
Service Games Won
75% (18/24)	76% (19/25)
Return Games Won
24% (6/25)	25% (6/24)
Total Games Won
49% (24/49)	51% (25/49)
Distance Covered (metres)
2916	3192

Chances of winning

Daniil Medvedev
78.1%

Benjamin Bonzi
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.2%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Medvedev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Benjamin Bonzi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Medvedev than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Medvedev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benjamin Bonzi than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benjamin Bonzi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.31)		4.35 ↑ (3.76)	4.9% (3.2%)

What is the prediction for Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi?

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Medvedev will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Bonzi will win (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Medvedev: 35.2% – 84.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Medvedev (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bonzi (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:0.

Preview Facts

Medvedev is ranked ATP: 13. Bonzi is ranked ATP: 51.
Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.
Bonzi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Medvedev is seen as the favorite.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Medvedev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Daniil Medvedev won against Benjamin Bonzi?

Daniil Medvedev has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Benjamin Bonzi won against Daniil Medvedev?

Benjamin Bonzi has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi were as follows:

30.06.2025 Benjamin Bonzi - Daniil Medvedev 3:1

Latest results of Daniil Medvedev

10.08.2025 Adam Walton - Daniil Medvedev 2:1 ✺

31.07.2025 Daniil Medvedev - Alexei Popyrin 1:2 ✺

29.07.2025 Daniil Medvedev - Dalibor Svrcina 2:0 ✺

25.07.2025 Daniil Medvedev - Corentin Moutet 1:2 ✺

24.07.2025 Daniil Medvedev - Yibing Wu 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Benjamin Bonzi

13.08.2025 Felix Aliassime-Auger - Benjamin Bonzi 2:0 ✺

11.08.2025 Stefanos Tsitsipas - Benjamin Bonzi 1:2 ✺

09.08.2025 Benjamin Bonzi - Lorenzo Musetti 2:1 ✺

07.08.2025 Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 Adam Walton - Benjamin Bonzi 2:1 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Kopriva V.	3 : 0
2	Popyrin A.	Ruusuvuori E.	3 : 0
3	Royer V. (WC)	Bu Y.	3 : 0
4	Fucsovics M.	Shapovalov D. (27)	0 : 3
5	Bublik A. (23)	Cilic M.	3 : 0
6	Sonego L.	Schoolkate T. (WC)	2 : 3
7	Borges N.	Holt B.	3 : 0
8	Moller E.	Paul T. (14)	0 : 3
9	Musetti L. (10)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	3 : 1
10	Halys Q.	Goffin D.	1 : 3
11	Brooksby J.	Vukic A.	3 : 2
12	Passaro F. (Q)	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
13	Diallo G. (31)	Dzumhur D.	3 : 1
14	Munar J.	Faria J. (LL)	3 : 1
15	Bergs Z.	Tseng C. H.	3 : 0
16	Gomez F. A. (Q)	Draper J. (5)	1 : 3
17	Zverev A. (3)	Tabilo A.	3 : 0
18	Bautista-Agut R.	Fearnley J.	1 : 3
19	Monfils G.	Safiullin R.	2 : 3
20	Harris B. (LL)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
21	Humbert U. (22)	Walton A.	1 : 3
22	Kovacevic A.	Wong C. (Q)	0 : 3
23	Duckworth J. (LL)	Boyer T. (WC)	0 : 3
24	Prizmic D. (Q)	Rublev A. (15)	0 : 3
25	Khachanov K. (9)	Basavareddy N. (WC)	3 : 1
26	Dellien H.	Majchrzak K.	1 : 3
27	Riedi L. (Q)	Martinez P.	3 : 0
28	Arnaldi M.	Cerundolo F. (19)	2 : 3
29	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Muller A.	3 : 1
30	Altmaier D.	Medjedovic H.	3 : 2
31	Gaston H.	Mochizuki S. (Q)	0 : 3
32	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
33	Djokovic N. (7)	Tien L.	3 : 0
34	Svajda Z. (Q)	Piros Z. (Q)	3 : 0
35	Norrie C.	Korda S. (RET.)	2 : 0
36	Comesana F.	Michelsen A. (28)	3 : 1
37	Tiafoe F. (17)	Nishioka Y.	3 : 0
38	Damm M. (Q)	Blanch Dar. (WC)	3 : 0
39	Struff J-L. (Q)	McDonald M.	3 : 1
40	Van De Zandschulp B.	Rune H. (11)	0 : 3
41	Mensik J. (16)	Jarry N.	3 : 0
42	Blanchet U. (Q)	Marozsan F.	3 : 1
43	Fonseca J.	Kecmanovic M.	3 : 0
44	Nardi L.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
45	Nakashima B. (30)	De Jong J. (Q)	3 : 2
46	Kym J. (Q)	Quinn E.	3 : 1
47	Baez S.	Harris L. (Q)	0 : 3
48	Nava E. (WC)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
49	Shelton B. (6)	Buse I. (Q)	3 : 0
50	Carreno-Busta P.	Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)	3 : 0
51	Thompson J.	Moutet C.	3 : 1
52	Mannarino A.	Griekspoor T. (29)	3 : 0
53	Lehecka J. (20)	Coric B.	3 : 1
54	Ugo Carabelli C.	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 3
55	Galan D. E. (Alt)	Collignon R.	0 : 3
56	Ofner S.	Ruud C. (12)	0 : 3
57	Medvedev D. (13)	Bonzi B.	2 : 3
58	Navone M.	Giron M.	2 : 3
59	Carballes Baena R.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
60	Shevchenko A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	0 : 3
61	Darderi L. (32)	Hijikata R.	3 : 0
62	Dostanic S. (WC)	Spizzirri E. (WC)	0 : 3
63	Bellucci M.	Shang J. (RET.)	2 : 1
64	Opelka R.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Popyrin A.	3 : 0
2	Royer V.	Shapovalov D. (27)	1 : 3
3	Bublik A. (23)	Schoolkate T.	3 : 0
4	Borges N.	Paul T. (14)	2 : 3
5	Musetti L. (10)	Goffin D.	3 : 0
6	Brooksby J.	Cobolli F. (24)	2 : 3
7	Diallo G. (31)	Munar J.	0 : 3
8	Bergs Z. (WO.)	Draper J. (5)
9	Zverev A. (3)	Fearnley J.	3 : 0
10	Safiullin R.	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	0 : 3
11	Walton A.	Wong C.	1 : 3
12	Boyer T.	Rublev A. (15)	1 : 3
13	Khachanov K. (9)	Majchrzak K.	2 : 3
14	Riedi L.	Cerundolo F. (19)	3 : 2
15	Tsitsipas S. (26)	Altmaier D.	2 : 3
16	Mochizuki S.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
17	Djokovic N. (7)	Svajda Z.	3 : 1
18	Norrie C.	Comesana F.	3 : 1
19	Tiafoe F. (17)	Damm M.	3 : 1
20	Struff J-L.	Rune H. (11)	3 : 2
21	Mensik J. (16)	Blanchet U.	2 : 3
22	Fonseca J.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
23	Nakashima B. (30)	Kym J.	2 : 3
24	Harris L.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
25	Shelton B. (6)	Carreno-Busta P.	3 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Mannarino A.	1 : 3
27	Lehecka J. (20)	Etcheverry T. M.	3 : 1
28	Collignon R.	Ruud C. (12)	3 : 2
29	Bonzi B.	Giron M.	3 : 2
30	Rinderknech A.	Davidovich Fokina A. (18)	3 : 2
31	Darderi L. (32)	Spizzirri E.	3 : 1
32	Bellucci M.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Shapovalov D. (27)	3 : 1
2	Bublik A. (23)	Paul T. (14)	3 : 2
3	Musetti L. (10)	Cobolli F. (RET.) (24)	2 : 0
4	Munar J.	Bergs Z.	3 : 0
5	Zverev A. (3)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	1 : 3
6	Wong C.	Rublev A. (15)	2 : 3
7	Majchrzak K. (RET.)	Riedi L.	0 : 0
8	Altmaier D. (RET.)	De Minaur A. (8)	1 : 2
9	Djokovic N. (7)	Norrie C.	3 : 1
10	Tiafoe F. (17)	Struff J-L.	0 : 3
11	Blanchet U.	Machac T. (21)	0 : 3
12	Kym J.	Fritz T. (4)	1 : 3
13	Shelton B. (RET.) (6)	Mannarino A.	2 : 2
14	Lehecka J. (20)	Collignon R.	3 : 0
15	Bonzi B.	Rinderknech A.	1 : 3
16	Darderi L. (32)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bublik A. (23)	3 : 0
2	Musetti L. (10)	Munar J.	3 : 0
3	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	Rublev A. (15)	3 : 0
4	Riedi L.	De Minaur A. (8)	0 : 3
5	Djokovic N. (7)	Struff J-L.	3 : 0
6	Machac T. (21)	Fritz T. (4)	0 : 3
7	Mannarino A.	Lehecka J. (20)	1 : 3
8	Rinderknech A.	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Musetti L. (10)	3 : 0
2	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	De Minaur A. (8)	3 : 1
3	Djokovic N. (7)	Fritz T. (4)	3 : 1
4	Lehecka J. (20)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Auger-Aliassime F. (25)	3 : 1
2	Djokovic N. (7)	Alcaraz C. (2)	0 : 3

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (2)

1 : 3

Which TV channels are streaming of Daniil Medvedev - Benjamin Bonzi?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


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Bulgaria	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Denmark	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
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France	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Germany	Eurosport 2
Hungary	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 2, Super Tennis
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Portugal	Eurosport 2
Romania	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Sweden	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Turkey	Eurosport 2