Benfica vs Bayern Munich: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer FIFA Club World Cup
Soccer FIFA Club World Cup Benfica - Bayern Munich
Result
1:0
24/06/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : FIFA Club World Cup - Round 3
  • Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
Benfica - Bayern Munich - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.431.98
Ball Possession
27%73%
Total shots
713
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
36
Passes
77% (200/260)91% (623/686)
Yellow Cards
30
Expected Goals (xG)
0.431.98
xG on target (xGOT)
0.991.16
Total shots
713
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
24
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
38
Shots outside the Box
45
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
36
Touches in opposition box
1033
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
16
Free Kicks
97
Passes
77% (200/260)91% (623/686)
Long passes
42% (22/52)67% (18/27)
Passes in final third
57% (33/58)83% (217/261)
Crosses
29% (2/7)22% (6/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.151.66
Throw-ins
1114
Fouls
79
Tackles
53% (10/19)64% (9/14)
Duels won
4532
Clearances
2810
Interceptions
106
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
43
xGOT faced
1.160.99
Goals prevented
1.16-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 13', 1 - 0, Schjelderup A. ⚽, Aursnes F. (A),
  • 19', Sanches R. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Bischof T. ↓, Kane H. ↑,
  • 46', Gnabry S. ↓, Olise M. ↑,
  • 46', Palhinha J. ↓, Kimmich J. ↑,
  • 46', Otamendi N. 🟨,
  • 54', Prestianni G. ↓, Kokcu O. ↑,
  • 55', Schjelderup A. ↓, Akturkoglu K. ↑,
  • 58', Upamecano D. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
  • 62', Boey S. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
  • 78', Sanches R. ↓, Bajrami A. ↑,
  • 87', Di Maria A. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
  • 87', Pavlidis V. ↓, Gouveia T. ↑,
  • 89', Gouveia T. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Benfica
22.5%		Draw
27.2%		Bayern Munich
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
13.7% 19.1% 67.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1% 18.3% 70.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Benfica's performance.
  • Bayern Munich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayern Munich might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-9.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+19.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayern Munich could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Benfica - Bayern Munich Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.64 ↓
    (7.14)    		 3.73 ↓
    (5.1)    		 1.93 ↑
    (1.45)    		 0.4%
    (2.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Benfica - Bayern Munich?
  • Users Predictions: 79 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 6 - 7.6%). Bayern will win (votes: 25 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 48 - 60.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50% – 71.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 27 high ROI users predict this event. Benfica (votes: 1 - 3.7%). Bayern (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Tie (votes: 19 - 70.4%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Benfica (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 8 - 80%).
    • BTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Bayern is Qualified for FIFA Club World Cup (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 0.
    • Benfica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • In this match, Bayern is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T. (Injury) Bah A. (Knee Injury) Belotti A. (Red Card) Carreras A. (Yellow Cards) Manu (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Bayern: Buchmann T. (Shoulder Injury) Davies A. (Knee Injury) Dier E. (Inactive) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Kim Min-Jae (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bayern: Musiala J. (Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:20. (average 0.7:2.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.7:2.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Benfica - Bayern Munich were as follows:
    06.11.2024 Bayern Munich - Benfica 1:0
    Latest results of Benfica
    20.06.2025 Benfica - Auckland City 6:0 ✺
    16.06.2025 Boca Juniors - Benfica 2:2 ✺
    25.05.2025 Benfica - Sporting Lisbon 1:3 ✺
    17.05.2025 Braga - Benfica 1:1 ✺
    10.05.2025 Benfica - Sporting Lisbon 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Bayern Munich
    20.06.2025 Bayern Munich - Boca Juniors 2:1 ✺
    15.06.2025 Bayern Munich - Auckland City 10:0 ✺
    17.05.2025 Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich 0:4 ✺
    10.05.2025 Bayern Munich - Borussia Mönchengladbach 2:0 ✺
    03.05.2025 RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich 3:3 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Inter (E1)Fluminense (F2)
    2Manchester City (G1)Al Hilal (H2)
    3Palmeiras (A1)Botafogo RJ (B2)1 : 0
    4Benfica (C1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 4
    5PSG (B1)Inter Miami (A2)4 : 0
    6Flamengo RJ (D1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 4
    7Real Madrid (H1)Juventus (G2)
    8Dortmund (F1)Monterrey (E2)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2Palmeiras (A1)Chelsea (D2)
    3PSG (B1)Bayern Munich (C2)
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    Which TV channels are streaming of Benfica - Bayern Munich?
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