Fortaleza vs Bahia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Brazilian Serie A Fortaleza - Bahia
Result
1:1
19/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 15
  • Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
Fortaleza - Bahia - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.392.07
Ball Possession
35%65%
Total shots
1517
Shots on target
24
Big Chances
35
Corner Kicks
93
Passes
74% (196/264)86% (437/510)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
1.392.07
xG on target (xGOT)
0.781.16
Total shots
1517
Shots on target
24
Shots off target
89
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
1012
Shots outside the Box
55
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
35
Corner Kicks
93
Touches in opposition box
2530
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
616
Passes
74% (196/264)86% (437/510)
Long passes
30% (16/53)56% (30/54)
Passes in final third
63% (53/84)74% (90/121)
Crosses
17% (4/24)28% (5/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.011.26
Throw-ins
1116
Fouls
166
Tackles
40% (6/15)47% (7/15)
Duels won
4161
Clearances
2032
Interceptions
75
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
1.160.78
Goals prevented
0.16-0.22

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
  • 29', 1 - 0, Marinho ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Rodriguez L. , Cauly ,
  • 51', Erick Pulga 🟨,
  • 51', Gilberto 🟨,
  • 51', Breno Lopes 🟨,
  • 59', Lucero J. 🟨,
  • 63', Ramos S. 🟨,
  • 65', Pereira M. 🟨,
  • 68', Pochettino T. , Emmanuel Martinez ,
  • 68', Britez E. , Mancuso E. ,
  • 69', Marinho , Herrera J. ,
  • 75', Jean Lucas , Michel Araujo ,
  • 75', Erick Pulga , Kayky ,
  • 76', Caio Alexandre , Rodrigo ,
  • 78', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,
  • 79', Lucero J. , Bareiro A. ,
  • 80', 1 - 1, Rodrigo ,
  • 84', Breno Lopes , Yago Pikachu ,
  • 89', Everton Ribeiro , Nicolas Acevedo ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fortaleza
32.3%
Draw
30.5%
Bahia
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.4% 30.2% 32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6% 29.6% 33.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortaleza's form might have worsened.
  • Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • Fortaleza - Bahia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.93
    (2.5)
    3.13
    (3.1)
    2.59
    (2.88)
    4.7%
    (7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Fortaleza - Bahia?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Bahia will win (votes: 2 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.5%86.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.
    • Fortaleza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Bahia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Bahia has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Tendon Injury) David Luiz (Thigh Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Rezende (Back Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Gustavo Mancha (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Bahia: Willian Jose (Ankle Injury)
    • We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 2.86.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:29. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fortaleza - Bahia were as follows:
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    21.09.2024 Fortaleza - Bahia 4:1
    13.06.2024 Bahia - Fortaleza 1:0
    21.10.2023 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:0
    03.06.2023 Fortaleza - Bahia 0:0
    Latest results of Fortaleza
    13.07.2025 Fortaleza - Ceará 0:1
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    12.06.2025 Fortaleza - Santos 2:3
    01.06.2025 Flamengo - Fortaleza 5:0
    29.05.2025 Racing - Fortaleza 1:0
    Latest results of Bahia
    17.07.2025 Bahia - Internacional RS Postponed
    15.07.2025 Bahia - América de Cali 0:0
    12.07.2025 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 2:1
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Cruzeiro21125434:151941
    3Palmeiras18123324:15939
    4Bahia19106327:171036
    5Botafogo RJ1995526:121432
    6Mirassol1988330:191132
    7Sao Paulo2188526:22432
    8Bragantino2193926:28-230
    9Fluminense1983825:28-327
    10Ceara2075819:19026
    11Corinthians2167822:27-525
    12Atletico-MG1966720:23-324
    13Internacional2066823:28-524
    14Gremio2066819:25-624
    15Santos20631120:31-1121
    16Vasco20541127:29-219
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude20531218:41-2318
    19Fortaleza20361119:32-1315
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Fortaleza - Bahia?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
    chinaChinaK-Ball
    ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
    mexicoMexicoFanatiz
    usaUsaFanatiz
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