Tacoma Defiance vs Austin II: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer MLS Next Pro Tacoma Defiance - Austin II
Result
1:2
12/09/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : MLS Next Pro
Tacoma Defiance - Austin II - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.662.00
Ball Possession
52%48%
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
84
Passes
78% (331/423)78% (315/402)
Yellow Cards
40
Expected Goals (xG)
0.662.00
xG on target (xGOT)
0.513.29
Total shots
1712
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
79
Shots outside the Box
103
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
84
Touches in opposition box
2035
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1016
Passes
78% (331/423)78% (315/402)
Long passes
52% (31/60)51% (35/69)
Passes in final third
63% (49/78)65% (92/142)
Crosses
27% (4/15)50% (5/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.473.41
Throw-ins
2627
Fouls
1711
Tackles
76% (16/21)90% (9/10)
Duels won
5542
Clearances
2420
Interceptions
1415
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
3.290.51
Goals prevented
1.29-0.49

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 13', Diaw B. 🟨,
  • 19', Kingston P. 🟨,
  • 30', 0 - 1, Barro D. , Burton M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Diaw B. , Alvarez D. ,
  • 60', Gonzalez L. , Khoury J. ,
  • 60', Pedder R. , Dodzi C. ,
  • 64', Danciutiu V. , Abarca D. ,
  • 64', Burney L. 🟨,
  • 66', Burney L. , Carli E. ,
  • 74', Moreno C. , Ciesla D. ,
  • 75', Burton M. , Avila C. ,
  • 75', 1 - 1, Khoury J. , Tsukanome Y. (A),
  • 76', 1 - 2, Alastuey J. , Torres E. (A),
  • 87', Yamada K. , Robles D. ,
  • 89', Gonzalez A. , Ruszel M. ,
  • 90+2', Khoury J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Tacoma Defiance
43%
Draw
23.7%
Austin II
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.7% 24.7% 41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3% 23.7% 43.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tacoma Defiance has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tacoma Defiance's performance.
  • Austin II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Austin II might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (-10.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tacoma Defiance that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin II than the current prediction. (+10.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Austin II could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Tacoma Defiance - Austin II Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.14
    (2.72)
    3.88
    (3.7)
    2.77
    (2.2)
    8.7%
    (9.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 and 9).
    • The current form of both teams is below expectations.
    • Tacoma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Tacoma is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tacoma Defiance - Austin II were as follows:
    15.03.2024 Austin II - Tacoma Defiance 1:3
    08.10.2023 Tacoma Defiance - Austin II 0:1
    25.06.2023 Tacoma Defiance - Austin II 1:0
    07.04.2023 Austin II - Tacoma Defiance 2:1
    Latest results of Tacoma Defiance
    Latest results of Austin II
    MLS Next Pro Table
    2025

    Northeast Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1New York Red Bulls 2251622564:5254
    2New England Revolution II251352548:3151
    3Philadelphia Union II251253553:2849
    4Chicago Fire II251242762:4546
    5Toronto FC II2510141032:3836
    6New York City II269241150:5635
    7Cincinnati 2245701227:3529
    8Columbus Crew 2255131634:5720


    Southeast Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1Chattanooga241143639:3544
    2Huntsville251142848:3143
    3Carolina Core25844939:3836
    4Orlando City B259321134:4735
    5Atlanta United 224726937:3931
    6Crown Legacy266351244:5329
    7Inter Miami II256051436:6223


    Pacific Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1Town FC241242652:3246
    2Real Monarchs251044744:3842
    3Vancouver Whitecaps 22511311057:4640
    4Ventura County251024946:4438
    5Los Angeles FC II259211343:5332
    6Portland Timbers 2258241142:4932
    7Tacoma Defiance258221355:6230


    Frontier Division
    PlWWLLPts
    1St. Louis City 2251641456:3357
    2Colorado Rapids 2251314748:3745
    3Minnesota 2251024939:3838
    4Austin FC II25935831:3138
    5North Texas259421038:4937
    6Houston Dynamo 2268421236:4134
    7Sporting Kansas City II253231726:6016


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWLLPts
    1New York Red Bulls 2 ✔ 251622564:5254
    2New England Revolution II ✔ 251352548:3151
    3Philadelphia Union II ✔ 251253553:2849
    4Chicago Fire II ✔ 251242762:4546
    5Chattanooga241143639:3544
    6Huntsville251142848:3143
    7Toronto FC II2510141032:3836
    8Carolina Core25844939:3836
    9New York City II269241150:5635
    10Orlando City B259321134:4735
    11Atlanta United 224726937:3931
    12Crown Legacy266351244:5329
    13Cincinnati 2245701227:3529
    14Inter Miami II256051436:6223
    15Columbus Crew 2255131634:5720


    Western Conference
    PlWWLLPts
    1St. Louis City 2 ✔ 251641456:3357
    2Town FC ✔ 241242652:3246
    3Colorado Rapids 2 ✔ 251314748:3745
    4Real Monarchs251044744:3842
    5Vancouver Whitecaps 22511311057:4640
    6Ventura County251024946:4438
    7Minnesota 2251024939:3838
    8Austin FC II25935831:3138
    9North Texas259421038:4937
    10Houston Dynamo 2268421236:4134
    11Los Angeles FC II259211343:5332
    12Portland Timbers 2258241142:4932
    13Tacoma Defiance258221355:6230
    14Sporting Kansas City II253231726:6016

          Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    New York Red Bulls 2 is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    New England Revolution II is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Philadelphia Union II is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Chicago Fire II is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    St. Louis City 2 is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Town FC is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Colorado Rapids 2 is Qualified for MLS Next Pro (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
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