Augsburg vs Mainz: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer German Bundesliga Augsburg - Mainz
Result
1:4
20/09/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Bundesliga - Round 4
  • Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
Augsburg - Mainz - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.872.36
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
04
Corner Kicks
66
Passes
86% (416/486)72% (235/328)
Yellow Cards
12
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
0.872.36
xG on target (xGOT)
0.992.10
Total shots
1812
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
44
Shots inside the Box
1111
Shots outside the Box
71
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
04
Corner Kicks
66
Touches in opposition box
2727
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1013
Passes
86% (416/486)72% (235/328)
Long passes
51% (21/41)38% (22/58)
Passes in final third
79% (124/157)66% (95/145)
Crosses
31% (11/36)9% (1/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.660.90
Throw-ins
2726
Fouls
1310
Tackles
82% (14/17)82% (9/11)
Duels won
4654
Clearances
2433
Interceptions
1211
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
20
Goalkeeper Saves
04
xGOT faced
2.100.99
Goals prevented
-1.90-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 14', 0 - 1, Sano K. ,
  • 16', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 18', Gouweleeuw J. 🟨,
  • 26', 0 - 2, Kohr D. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Zesiger C. , Schlotterbeck K. ,
  • 46', Wolf M. , Jakic K. ,
  • 46', Saad E. , Essende S. ,
  • 46', Rexhbecaj E. , Fellhauer R. ,
  • 53', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 56', Nordin A. , Bell S. ,
  • 60', 0 - 3, Nebel P. , Sano K. (A),
  • 67', Gouweleeuw J. , Tietz P. ,
  • 69', 0 - 4, Sieb A. , Hanche-Olsen A. (A),
  • 81', Mwene P. , Widmer S. ,
  • 81', Hanche-Olsen A. , Leitsch M. ,
  • 81', Sieb A. , Weiper N. ,
  • 83', 1 - 4, Essende S. ,
  • 85', Caci A. , Veratschnig N. ,

Chances of winning


Augsburg
22.1%
Draw
27.4%
Mainz
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34.9% 28% 37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5% 28.5% 36.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Augsburg's form might have worsened.
  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mainz's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+13.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Augsburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-14%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mainz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Augsburg - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    6.05
    (2.73)
    4.53
    (3.4)
    2.28
    (2.56)
    -17.5%
    (5.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Augsburg - Mainz?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Mainz will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Augsburg: 23.2%66.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 1.
    • In recent matches, Augsburg has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Mainz's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Augsburg: Giannoulis D. (Thigh Injury) Kade A. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Widmer S. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:31. (average 1.6:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Augsburg won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 2.1:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Augsburg - Mainz were as follows:
    08.02.2025 Mainz - Augsburg 0:0
    20.09.2024 Augsburg - Mainz 2:3
    17.02.2024 Mainz - Augsburg 1:0
    23.09.2023 Augsburg - Mainz 2:1
    11.02.2023 Mainz - Augsburg 3:1
    Latest results of Augsburg
    14.09.2025 St. Pauli - Augsburg 2:1
    03.09.2025 Augsburg - Greuther Fürth 1:2
    30.08.2025 Augsburg - Bayern Munich 2:3
    23.08.2025 Freiburg - Augsburg 1:3
    17.08.2025 Hallescher - Augsburg 0:2
    Latest results of Mainz
    13.09.2025 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:1
    31.08.2025 Wolfsburg - Mainz 1:1
    28.08.2025 Mainz - Rosenborg 4:1
    24.08.2025 Mainz - Köln 0:1
    21.08.2025 Rosenborg - Mainz 2:1
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich440018:31512
    2Dortmund43109:3610
    3RB Leipzig43016:7-19
    4FC Koln42119:727
    5St. Pauli42117:617
    6Eintracht Frankfurt420211:926
    7Freiburg42028:806
    8Stuttgart42025:506
    9Hoffenheim42028:10-26
    10Union Berlin42028:11-36
    11Bayer Leverkusen41218:715
    12Wolfsburg41217:615
    13Mainz41125:414
    14Werder Bremen41128:10-24
    15Hamburger SV41122:8-64
    16Augsburg41037:10-33
    17B. Monchengladbach40221:6-52
    18Heidenheim40042:9-70

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

    Which TV channels are streaming of Augsburg - Mainz?
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