Atlético San Luis vs Toluca: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Mexican Liga MX Atlético San Luis - Toluca
Result
1:3
29/08/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga MX - Apertura - Round 7
  • Referee: Camacho Peregrina J. (Mex)
Atlético San Luis - Toluca - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.022.33
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
817
Shots on target
36
Big Chances
25
Corner Kicks
18
Passes
87% (390/446)84% (344/409)
Yellow Cards
52
Expected Goals (xG)
1.022.33
xG on target (xGOT)
0.691.95
Total shots
817
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
19
Shots inside the Box
613
Shots outside the Box
24
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
25
Corner Kicks
18
Touches in opposition box
1728
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1611
Passes
87% (390/446)84% (344/409)
Long passes
56% (19/34)52% (26/50)
Passes in final third
74% (83/112)75% (66/88)
Crosses
15% (3/20)33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.582.09
Throw-ins
2017
Fouls
1116
Tackles
18% (2/11)47% (8/17)
Duels won
5238
Clearances
1922
Interceptions
512
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
1.950.69
Goals prevented
-0.05-0.31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 20', Vega A. 🟨,
  • 29', 0 - 1, Vega A. , Castro N. (A),
  • 32', Juanpe 🟨,
  • 35', Salles-Lamonge S. 🟨,
  • 40', Joao Pedro Galvao 🟨,
  • 44', Yan Phillipe 🟨,
  • 45+4', 0 - 2, Torres R. (Own goal),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Torres R. , Suarez J. ,
  • 47', Romero F. 🟨,
  • 58', Paulinho , Morales R. ,
  • 58', Simon S. , Barbosa D. ,
  • 61', 0 - 3, Morales R. ,
  • 65', 1 - 3, Najera R. , Salles-Lamonge S. (A),
  • 67', Yan Phillipe , Garcia M. ,
  • 67', Najera R. , Barajas F. ,
  • 67', Juanpe , Guillen D. ,
  • 69', Angulo J. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 85', Klimowicz M. , Galdames B. ,
  • 88', Vega A. , Herrera H. ,
  • 88', Romero F. , Arce F. ,
  • 90+9', Aguila E. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Atlético San Luis
22.9%
Draw
23.5%
Toluca
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
22.4% 23.5% 54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22% 23% 55.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
  • Atlético San Luis - Toluca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.14
    (4.18)
    3.97
    (3.98)
    1.75
    (1.73)
    6.4%
    (7.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Atlético San Luis - Toluca?
  • Users Predictions: Toluca will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 83.85%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 0.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Atlético San Luis has had a series of away games.
    • Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I. (Knee Injury) Sanabria J. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Toluca: Helinho (Injury) Luan (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Macias O. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Castro H. (Injury)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 0.8:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético San Luis won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético San Luis - Toluca were as follows:
    16.04.2025 Atlético San Luis - Toluca 0:1
    25.08.2024 Toluca - Atlético San Luis 2:1
    19.04.2024 Atlético San Luis - Toluca 1:5
    29.10.2023 Toluca - Atlético San Luis 3:1
    26.02.2023 Toluca - Atlético San Luis 2:0
    Latest results of Atlético San Luis
    Latest results of Toluca
    23.08.2025 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:0
    20.08.2025 Toluca - Orlando City 0:1
    16.08.2025 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    11.08.2025 Juárez - Toluca 0:2
    05.08.2025 Toluca - New York City 2:1
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Monterrey760117:9818
    2Club America752015:6917
    3Cruz Azul752015:8717
    4Tigres UANL641116:8813
    5Toluca741216:10613
    6Pachuca741211:7413
    7Club Tijuana733113:9412
    8Juarez73227:7011
    9Club Leon73138:9-110
    10UNAM Pumas72327:8-19
    11Santos Laguna72059:11-26
    12Mazatlan FC71338:10-26
    13Atl. San Luis720510:13-36
    14Atlas712412:19-75
    15Necaxa71246:13-75
    16Guadalajara Chivas61149:12-34
    17Queretaro71157:15-84
    18Puebla71156:18-124

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Which TV channels are streaming of Atlético San Luis - Toluca?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+
    brazilBrazilDisney+
    chileChileDisney+
    colombiaColombiaDisney+
    mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
    peruPeruDisney+
    south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsaTUDN App, TUDN
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
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