Atlético Grau vs Alianza Lima: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Peruvian Liga 1 Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima
Result
1:1
10/05/2025 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12
  • Referee: Ordonez E. (Per)
Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.051.20
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
1218
Shots on target
23
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
70% (238/341)79% (371/470)
Yellow Cards
32
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.051.20
xG on target (xGOT)
0.531.24
Total shots
1218
Shots on target
23
Shots off target
88
Blocked Shots
27
Shots inside the Box
414
Shots outside the Box
84
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
929
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
34
Free Kicks
618
Passes
70% (238/341)79% (371/470)
Long passes
37% (30/81)44% (31/70)
Passes in final third
57% (43/76)53% (69/129)
Crosses
23% (3/13)33% (6/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.721.06
Throw-ins
1419
Fouls
186
Tackles
88% (14/16)75% (6/8)
Duels won
4961
Clearances
4821
Interceptions
413
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
21
xGOT faced
1.240.53
Goals prevented
0.24-0.47

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', 1 - 0, Bandiera N. , F. Rojas (A),
  • 41', Soto D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 51', Garces R. 🟨,
  • 58', Garces R. 🟨,
  • 63', D'Arrigo J. , Quevedo K. ,
  • 63', Ceppelini P. , Cari P. ,
  • 72', Vilca R. 🟨,
  • 75', Bandiera N. , Olivares C. ,
  • 75', Franco D. , Reyes J. ,
  • 75', Ruidiaz R. , Sandoval T. ,
  • 76', F. Rojas 🟨,
  • 81', Enrique G. , Huaman M. ,
  • 81', Trauco M. , Lagos R. ,
  • 84', Vilca R. , Rodas E. ,
  • 85', 1 - 1, Barcos H. , Huaman M. (A),

Chances of winning


Atlético Grau
19.9%
Draw
27.1%
Alianza Lima
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.3% 28.8% 39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1% 27.7% 41.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Grau's form might have worsened.
  • Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Grau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-11.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.73
    (3)
    3.44
    (3.25)
    1.76
    (2.35)
    6.9%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima?
  • Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Grau will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Grau (votes: 1 - 50%). Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grau won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Grau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Alianza Lima has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Alianza Lima is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Grau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.6:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Grau won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima were as follows:
    18.09.2024 Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima 1:0
    14.04.2024 Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau 2:0
    23.06.2023 Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau 2:0
    26.03.2023 Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima 1:2
    Latest results of Atlético Grau
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    Peruvian Liga 1 Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1U. de Deportes1382329:121726
    2Alianza Lima1382316:10626
    3FBC Melgar1374222:14825
    4Alianza Atl1381420:12825
    5Sport Huancayo1381420:15525
    6Deportivo Garcilaso1472524:141023
    7Cusco1372425:18723
    8Sporting Cristal1371522:17522
    9AD Tarma1454522:24-219
    10Cienciano1345423:19417
    11Sport Boys1344520:21-116
    12Los Chankas1336418:19-115
    13Grau1236317:18-115
    14Cajamarca1342714:29-1514
    15Binacional1334615:23-813
    16Juan Pablo II1232713:20-711
    17Ayacucho1323810:22-129
    18Comerciantes Unidos1215614:23-98
    19Alianza Huanuco1314811:25-147

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