Result
2:1
04/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Semi-finals
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Aces |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Double Faults |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| 1st Serve Percentage |
|---|
| 67% | 59% |
| 1st Serve Points Won |
|---|
| 72% (46/64) | 71% (35/49) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won |
|---|
| 53% (17/32) | 62% (21/34) |
| Break Points Saved |
|---|
| 71% (5/7) | 57% (4/7) |
| Average 1st Serve Speed |
|---|
| 171 km/h | 157 km/h |
| Average 2nd Serve Speed |
|---|
| 139 km/h | 127 km/h |
| 1st Return Points Won |
|---|
| 29% (14/49) | 28% (18/64) |
| 2nd Return Points Won |
|---|
| 38% (13/34) | 47% (15/32) |
| Break Points Converted |
|---|
| 43% (3/7) | 29% (2/7) |
| Winners |
|---|
| 43 | 21 |
| Unforced Errors |
|---|
| 27 | 15 |
| Net Points Won |
|---|
| 56% (15/27) | 72% (13/18) |
| Service Points Won |
|---|
| 66% (63/95) | 67% (55/82) |
| Return Points Won |
|---|
| 33% (27/82) | 34% (32/95) |
| Total Points Won |
|---|
| 51% (90/177) | 49% (87/177) |
| Last 10 Balls |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Match Points Saved |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Service Games Won |
|---|
| 87% (13/15) | 79% (11/14) |
| Return Games Won |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 13% (2/15) |
| Total Games Won |
|---|
| 55% (16/29) | 45% (13/29) |
| Distance Covered (metres) |
|---|
| 1550 | 1771 |
Chances of winning
Aryna Sabalenka
72.1% | Jessica Pegula
27.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aryna Sabalenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)Jessica Pegula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-5.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aryna Sabalenka that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jessica Pegula could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.33 ↑
(1.31) |
|
3.4 ↓
(3.52) |
4.5%
(4.9%) | |
What is the prediction for Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula?
Users Predictions:
41 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 35 - 85.4%). Pegula will win (votes: 6 - 14.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 74.6% – 96.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Aryna Sabalenka will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Pegula is ranked WTA: 4.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 4.
- In recent matches, both players have secured multiple victories.
- In this match, Sabalenka is considered a favorite.
- We predict that Sabalenka will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 1.7:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Aryna Sabalenka won against Jessica Pegula?
Aryna Sabalenka has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jessica Pegula won against Aryna Sabalenka?
Jessica Pegula has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula were as follows:
29.03.2025
Aryna Sabalenka
-
Jessica Pegula
2:0
07.09.2024
Jessica Pegula
-
Aryna Sabalenka
0:2
19.08.2024
Aryna Sabalenka
-
Jessica Pegula
2:0
31.10.2023
Aryna Sabalenka
-
Jessica Pegula
0:2
04.11.2022
Jessica Pegula
-
Aryna Sabalenka
0:2
Latest results of Aryna Sabalenka
Latest results of Jessica Pegula
Draw
Singles - Main1/64-finals| 1 | Sabalenka A. (1) | Masarova R. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Parrizas-Diaz N. (RET.) | Kudermetova P. | 0 : 0 |
| 3 | Jacquemot E. | Bouzkova M. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Marino R. (Q) | Fernandez L. (31) | 0 : 2 |
| 5 | Mertens E. (19) | Ahn A. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Sun L. | Osorio C. | 2 : 1 |
| 7 | Bucsa C. | Liu C. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Eala A. | Tauson C. (14) | 2 : 1 |
| 9 | Rybakina E. (9) | Pareja J. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 10 | Bronzetti L. | Valentova T. (Q) | 1 : 2 |
| 11 | Raducanu E. | Shibahara E. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 12 | Tjen J. (Q) | Kudermetova V. (24) | 2 : 1 |
| 13 | Kessler M. (32) | Linette M. | 2 : 0 |
| 14 | Selekhmeteva O. (Q) | Vondrousova M. | 0 : 2 |
| 15 | Sasnovich A. | Jovic I. | 0 : 2 |
| 16 | Aiava D. (Q) | Paolini J. (7) | 0 : 2 |
| 17 | Pegula J. (4) | Sherif M. | 2 : 0 |
| 18 | Starodubtseva Y. | Blinkova A. | 0 : 2 |
| 19 | Azarenka V. | Inoue H. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 20 | Pavlyuchenkova A. | Yastremska D. (30) | 2 : 1 |
| 21 | Samsonova L. (17) | Yuan Y. | 2 : 1 |
| 22 | Jeanjean L. | Hon P. (Q) | 0 : 2 |
| 23 | Li A. | Sramkova R. | 2 : 1 |
| 24 | Zhang S. (Q) | Bencic B. (16) | 0 : 2 |
| 25 | Navarro E. (10) | Wang Y. | 2 : 0 |
| 26 | Teichmann J. | McNally C. (WC) | 0 : 2 |
| 27 | Uchijima M. | Danilovic O. | 2 : 1 |
| 28 | Krejcikova B. | Mboko V. (22) | 2 : 0 |
| 29 | Ostapenko J. (25) | Wang Xiy. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 30 | Townsend T. | Ruzic A. | 2 : 0 |
| 31 | Potapova A. | Zhu L. | 2 : 1 |
| 32 | Parks A. | Andreeva M. (5) | 0 : 2 |
| 33 | Keys M. (6) | Zarazua R. | 1 : 2 |
| 34 | Kvitova P. | Parry D. | 0 : 2 |
| 35 | Volynets K. (Q) | Sonmez Z. | 0 : 2 |
| 36 | Boulter K. | Kostyuk M. (27) | 0 : 2 |
| 37 | Noskova L. (21) | Galfi D. (Q) | 2 : 0 |
| 38 | Jones F. (Q) | Lys E. | 0 : 2 |
| 39 | Cirstea S. | Sierra S. | 2 : 0 |
| 40 | Williams V. (WC) | Muchova K. (11) | 1 : 2 |
| 41 | Kasatkina D. (15) | Ruse G. | 2 : 0 |
| 42 | Rakhimova K. | Garcia C. (WC) | 2 : 1 |
| 43 | Baptiste H. | Siniakova K. | 2 : 0 |
| 44 | Minnen G. | Osaka N. (23) | 0 : 2 |
| 45 | Frech M. (28) | Gibson T. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 46 | Semenistaja D. (Q) | Stearns P. | 0 : 2 |
| 47 | Vekic D. | Bouzas Maneiro J. | 2 : 1 |
| 48 | Tomljanovic A. | Gauff C. (3) | 1 : 2 |
| 49 | Anisimova A. (8) | Birrell K. | 2 : 0 |
| 50 | Jimenez Kasintseva V. (Q) | Joint M. | 0 : 2 |
| 51 | Collins D. | Cristian J. | 0 : 2 |
| 52 | Krueger A. | Kenin S. (26) | 2 : 1 |
| 53 | Haddad Maia B. (18) | Kartal S. | 2 : 1 |
| 54 | Boisson L. | Golubic V. | 1 : 2 |
| 55 | Sakkari M. | Maria T. | 2 : 0 |
| 56 | Bondar A. | Svitolina E. (12) | 2 : 0 |
| 57 | Alexandrova E. (13) | Sevastova A. | 2 : 0 |
| 58 | Dolehide C. | Wang Xin. | 1 : 2 |
| 59 | Zakharova A. | Avanesyan E. | 2 : 0 |
| 60 | Siegemund L. | Shnaider D. (20) | 2 : 1 |
| 61 | Kalinskaya A. (29) | Ngounoue C. (WC) | 2 : 1 |
| 62 | Putintseva Y. | Cocciaretto E. | 2 : 0 |
| 63 | Lamens S. | Glozman V. (WC) | 2 : 0 |
| 64 | Arango E. | Swiatek I. (2) | 0 : 2 |
1/32-finals| 1 | Sabalenka A. (1) | Kudermetova P. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Jacquemot E. | Fernandez L. (31) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Mertens E. (19) | Sun L. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Bucsa C. | Eala A. | 2 : 0 |
| 5 | Rybakina E. (9) | Valentova T. | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Raducanu E. | Tjen J. | 2 : 0 |
| 7 | Kessler M. (32) | Vondrousova M. | 0 : 2 |
| 8 | Jovic I. | Paolini J. (7) | 0 : 2 |
| 9 | Pegula J. (4) | Blinkova A. | 2 : 0 |
| 10 | Azarenka V. | Pavlyuchenkova A. | 2 : 0 |
| 11 | Samsonova L. (17) | Hon P. | 1 : 2 |
| 12 | Li A. | Bencic B. (16) | 2 : 0 |
| 13 | Navarro E. (10) | McNally C. | 2 : 0 |
| 14 | Uchijima M. | Krejcikova B. | 0 : 2 |
| 15 | Ostapenko J. (25) | Townsend T. | 0 : 2 |
| 16 | Potapova A. | Andreeva M. (5) | 0 : 2 |
| 17 | Zarazua R. | Parry D. | 1 : 2 |
| 18 | Sonmez Z. | Kostyuk M. (27) | 1 : 2 |
| 19 | Noskova L. (21) | Lys E. (RET.) | 1 : 0 |
| 20 | Cirstea S. | Muchova K. (11) | 1 : 2 |
| 21 | Kasatkina D. (15) | Rakhimova K. | 2 : 1 |
| 22 | Baptiste H. | Osaka N. (23) | 0 : 2 |
| 23 | Frech M. (28) | Stearns P. | 2 : 1 |
| 24 | Vekic D. | Gauff C. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 25 | Anisimova A. (8) | Joint M. | 2 : 0 |
| 26 | Cristian J. | Krueger A. | 2 : 1 |
| 27 | Haddad Maia B. (18) | Golubic V. | 2 : 0 |
| 28 | Sakkari M. | Bondar A. | 2 : 0 |
| 29 | Alexandrova E. (13) | Wang Xin. | 2 : 0 |
| 30 | Zakharova A. | Siegemund L. | 0 : 2 |
| 31 | Kalinskaya A. (29) | Putintseva Y. | 2 : 0 |
| 32 | Lamens S. | Swiatek I. (2) | 1 : 2 |
1/16-finals| 1 | Sabalenka A. (1) | Fernandez L. (31) | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Mertens E. (19) | Bucsa C. | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Rybakina E. (9) | Raducanu E. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Vondrousova M. | Paolini J. (7) | 2 : 0 |
| 5 | Pegula J. (4) | Azarenka V. | 2 : 0 |
| 6 | Hon P. | Li A. | 0 : 2 |
| 7 | Navarro E. (10) | Krejcikova B. | 1 : 2 |
| 8 | Townsend T. | Andreeva M. (5) | 2 : 0 |
| 9 | Parry D. | Kostyuk M. (27) | 1 : 2 |
| 10 | Noskova L. (21) | Muchova K. (11) | 1 : 2 |
| 11 | Kasatkina D. (15) | Osaka N. (23) | 1 : 2 |
| 12 | Frech M. (28) | Gauff C. (3) | 0 : 2 |
| 13 | Anisimova A. (8) | Cristian J. | 2 : 1 |
| 14 | Haddad Maia B. (18) | Sakkari M. | 2 : 0 |
| 15 | Alexandrova E. (13) | Siegemund L. | 2 : 0 |
| 16 | Kalinskaya A. (29) | Swiatek I. (2) | 0 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Sabalenka A. (1) | Bucsa C. | 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Rybakina E. (9) | Vondrousova M. | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Pegula J. (4) | Li A. | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Krejcikova B. | Townsend T. | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Kostyuk M. (27) | Muchova K. (11) | 1 : 2 |
| 6 | Osaka N. (23) | Gauff C. (3) | 2 : 0 |
| 7 | Anisimova A. (8) | Haddad Maia B. (18) | 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Alexandrova E. (13) | Swiatek I. (2) | 0 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Sabalenka A. (WO.) (1) | Vondrousova M. | |
| 2 | Pegula J. (4) | Krejcikova B. | 2 : 0 |
| 3 | Muchova K. (11) | Osaka N. (23) | 0 : 2 |
| 4 | Anisimova A. (8) | Swiatek I. (2) | 2 : 0 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Sabalenka A. (1) | Pegula J. (4) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Osaka N. (23) | Anisimova A. (8) | 1 : 2 |
Final| 1 | Sabalenka A. (1) | Anisimova A. (8) | 2 : 0 |
Which TV channels are streaming of Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula?
It is being streamed on various channels, including:
| |
|---|
 Belgium | HBO Max, HBO Max |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | HBO Max |
 Brazil | ESPN 2 |
 Bulgaria | HBO Max |
 Croatia | HBO Max |
 Czech-republic | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Denmark | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Finland | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 France | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Germany | Eurosport 1, Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event |
 Hungary | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Moldova | HBO Max |
 Montenegro | HBO Max |
 Netherlands | HBO Max |
 North-macedonia | HBO Max |
 Norway | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Poland | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Portugal | Eurosport 1 |
 Romania | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Serbia | HBO Max |
 Slovenia | HBO Max |
 Spain | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Sweden | Eurosport 1, HBO Max |
 Switzerland | RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2 |
 Turkey | Eurosport 1 |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis |
