Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Tennis WTA Wuhan Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina
Result
2:0
10/10/2025 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • WTA - SINGLES: Wuhan, hard - Quarter-finals
Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
26
Double Faults
51
1st Serve Percentage
60%60%
1st Serve Points Won
79% (27/34)67% (24/36)
2nd Serve Points Won
48% (11/23)29% (7/24)
Break Points Saved
67% (2/3)20% (1/5)
1st Return Points Won
33% (12/36)29% (10/34)
2nd Return Points Won
71% (17/24)52% (12/23)
Break Points Converted
80% (4/5)33% (1/3)
Service Points Won
67% (38/57)53% (31/59)
Return Points Won
47% (28/59)33% (19/57)
Total Points Won
57% (66/116)43% (50/116)
Last 10 Balls
73
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
89% (8/9)56% (5/9)
Return Games Won
44% (4/9)11% (1/9)
Total Games Won
67% (12/18)33% (6/18)

Chances of winning


Aryna Sabalenka
54.7%
Elena Rybakina
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.5% 39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8% 36.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Aryna Sabalenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aryna Sabalenka's form might have worsened.
  • Elena Rybakina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elena Rybakina's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (+9.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aryna Sabalenka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (-9.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elena Rybakina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.74
    (1.51)

    2.15
    (2.31)
    4%
    (9.5%)
    What is the prediction for Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina?
  • Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 18 - 72%). Rybakina will win (votes: 7 - 28%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 54.4%89.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 3 - 60%). Rybakina (votes: 2 - 40%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Rybakina is ranked WTA: 9.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 2.
    • Sabalenka has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Rybakina is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Sabalenka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Sabalenka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • We predict that Sabalenka will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.2:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina were as follows:
    15.08.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 0:2
    20.06.2025 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 2:1
    06.11.2024 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 1:2
    02.05.2024 Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka 1:2
    06.01.2024 Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina 0:2
    Latest results of Aryna Sabalenka
    Latest results of Elena Rybakina
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/32-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Bye
    2Sramkova R.Kalinskaya A.2 : 1
    3Zakharova A. (Q)Kenin S.1 : 2
    4Arango E. (LL)Samsonova L. (16)0 : 2
    5Osaka N. (11)Fernandez L.2 : 1
    6Noskova L.Putintseva Y. (Q)2 : 1
    7Kessler M.Cristian J.1 : 2
    8ByeRybakina E. (8)
    9Jovic I. (LL)Bye
    10Gracheva V. (Q)Bouzas Maneiro J.0 : 2
    11Zhu L.Joint M.0 : 2
    12Siniakova K. (Q)Shnaider D. (15)2 : 0
    13Alexandrova E. (9)Mboko V.2 : 0
    14Raducanu E. (RET.)Li A.0 : 1
    15Krueger A.Baptiste H.1 : 2
    16ByePegula J. (6)
    17Andreeva M. (5)Bye
    18Yastremska D. (RET.)Siegemund L.1 : 1
    19Frech M.Kudermetova V.2 : 1
    20Kostyuk M.Muchova K. (12)1 : 2
    21Navarro E. (14)Zhang S. (WC)1 : 2
    22Cirstea S.Ostapenko J. (RET.)1 : 0
    23Uchijima M. (Q)Wang Xin.2 : 0
    24ByeGauff C. (3)
    25Paolini J. (7)Bye
    26Bronzetti L. (Q)Yuan Y. (WC)0 : 2
    27Ruzic A. (Q)Linette M.2 : 0
    28Danilovic O.Tauson C. (10)0 : 2
    29Bencic B. (13)Vekic D. (WC)2 : 0
    30Mertens E.Kudermetova P. (Q)2 : 0
    31Osorio C. (WC)Bouzkova M.0 : 2
    32ByeSwiatek I. (2)

    1/16-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Sramkova R.2 : 1
    2Kenin S.Samsonova L. (16)1 : 2
    3Osaka N. (11)Noskova L.0 : 2
    4Cristian J.Rybakina E. (8)0 : 2
    5Jovic I.Bouzas Maneiro J.2 : 0
    6Joint M.Siniakova K.0 : 2
    7Alexandrova E. (9)Li A.2 : 0
    8Baptiste H.Pegula J. (6)1 : 2
    9Andreeva M. (5)Siegemund L.1 : 2
    10Frech M.Muchova K. (RET.) (12)1 : 0
    11Zhang S.Cirstea S.2 : 1
    12Uchijima M.Gauff C. (3)0 : 2
    13Paolini J. (7)Yuan Y.2 : 1
    14Ruzic A.Tauson C. (10)0 : 2
    15Bencic B. (WO.) (13)Mertens E.
    16Bouzkova M.Swiatek I. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Samsonova L. (16)2 : 0
    2Noskova L.Rybakina E. (8)0 : 2
    3Jovic I.Siniakova K.0 : 2
    4Alexandrova E. (9)Pegula J. (6)1 : 2
    5Siegemund L.Frech M.2 : 0
    6Zhang S.Gauff C. (3)0 : 2
    7Paolini J. (7)Tauson C. (RET.) (10)1 : 1
    8Bencic B. (13)Swiatek I. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Rybakina E. (8)2 : 0
    2Siniakova K.Pegula J. (6)1 : 2
    3Siegemund L.Gauff C. (3)0 : 2
    4Paolini J. (7)Swiatek I. (2)2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Sabalenka A. (1)Pegula J. (6)1 : 2
    2Gauff C. (3)Paolini J. (7)2 : 0

    Final
    1Pegula J. (6)Gauff C. (3)0 : 2
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