Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer UEFA Champions League
Result
1:0
05/05/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)
Arsenal - Atlético Madrid - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.580.52
Ball possession
53%47%
Total shots
139
Shots on target
22
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
52
Passes
85% (377/443)83% (319/384)
Yellow cards
12
Expected goals (xG)
1.580.52
xG on target (xGOT)
1.020.24
Total shots
139
Shots on target
22
Shots off target
84
Blocked shots
33
Shots inside the box
67
Shots outside the box
72
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
52
Touches in opposition box
2020
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
12
Free kicks
1310
Passes
85% (377/443)83% (319/384)
Long passes
41% (24/59)39% (19/49)
Passes in final third
78% (124/160)79% (73/92)
Crosses
29% (4/14)15% (2/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.590.50
Throw ins
1418
Fouls
1013
Tackles
44% (8/18)48% (10/21)
Duels won
4745
Clearances
2818
Interceptions
47
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
21
xGOT faced
0.241.02
Goals prevented
0.240.02

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 44', 1 - 0, Saka B. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 57', Simeone G. ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
  • 57', Le Normand R. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
  • 57', Lookman A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
  • 58', Calafiori R. ↓, Hincapie P. ↑,
  • 58', Saka B. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
  • 59', Eze E. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
  • 66', Griezmann A. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
  • 66', Alvarez J. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
  • 74', Lewis-Skelly M. ↓, Zubimendi M. ↑,
  • 81', Pubill M. 🟨,
  • 83', Trossard L. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
  • 90+2', Simeone D. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Arteta M. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Koke 🟨,
  • 90+5', Arrizabalaga K. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Arsenal
59.4%		Draw
22.5%		Atlético Madrid
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.8% 23.7% 17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2% 21.1% 19.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
  • Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-7.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arsenal that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
    •

    Arsenal - Atlético Madrid Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.62 ↓
    (1.63)    		 4.27 ↑
    (4.04)    		 5.38 ↓
    (5.49)    		 3.7%
    (4.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Arsenal - Atlético Madrid?
    • Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 26 - 61.9%). Atlético will win (votes: 8 - 19%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 19%).
      Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 47.2% – 76.6%.
    • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
      • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 60%) .
      • EH +1 - Atlético (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
      • DC - Atlético (2.33) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
      • AH -0.5 - Atlético (5.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
      • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
      • TQ, OT - Arsenal (1.34) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
      • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Atlético (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
      •
    • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    Preview Facts
    • First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Arsenal is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Arsenal: Merino M. (Foot Injury) Timber J. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Arsenal - Atlético Madrid were as follows:
    29.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Arsenal 1:1
    21.10.2025 Arsenal - Atlético Madrid 4:0
    Latest results of Arsenal
    02.05.2026 Arsenal - Fulham 3:0 ✺
    29.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Arsenal 1:1 ✺
    25.04.2026 Arsenal - Newcastle United 1:0 ✺
    19.04.2026 Manchester City - Arsenal 2:1 ✺
    15.04.2026 Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon 0:0 ✺
    Latest results of Atlético Madrid
    02.05.2026 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:2 ✺
    29.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Arsenal 1:1 ✺
    25.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 3:2 ✺
    22.04.2026 Elche - Atlético Madrid 3:2 ✺
    18.04.2026 Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad 2:3 ✺
    Draw
    2026/27

    1/8-finals
    1ThunBye
    2ByeDin. Zagreb
    3KlaksvikBissen2 : 1, 2 : 1
    4Kauno ZalgirisDrita3 : 2, 1 : 1
    5MjallbyBye
    6Lincoln Red ImpsInter Escaldes1 : 1, 3 : 1
    7FloraIberia 19992 : 2, 2 : 3
    8ByeSlovan Bratislava
    9Borac Banja LukaLevski Sofia0 : 4, 1 : 1
    10ML VitebskUniv. Craiova0 : 1, 1 : 4
    11OmoniaBye
    12Kairat AlmatySutjeska2 : 0, 2 : 1
    13AarhusBye
    14ByeLech Poznan
    15Sabah BakuTNS2 : 1, 2 : 0
    16VardarKuPS3 : 2, 0 : 2
    17Ararat-ArmeniaRiga FC2 : 3, 2 : 0
    18FlorianaShamrock Rovers1 : 5, 2 : 0
    19PetrocubEgnatia1 : 6, 1 : 1
    20ByeCelje
    21Vikingur ReykjavikGyor2 : 2, 1 : 0
    22ByeH. Beer Sheva
    23Tre FioriLarne1 : 2, 0 : 1
    24ByeCrvena zvezda
    25Olympiacos PiraeusBye
    28ByeNijmegen
    29Royale Union SGBye
    32ByeBodo/Glimt
    33FenerbahceBye
    34ByeGornik Zabrze
    35Sturm GrazBye
    36ByeHearts
    37Sparta PragueBye
    40ByeLyon

    Quarter-finals
    1ThunDin. Zagreb
    2KlaksvikKauno Zalgiris
    3MjallbyLincoln Red Imps
    4Iberia 1999Slovan Bratislava
    5Levski SofiaUniv. Craiova
    6OmoniaKairat Almaty
    7AarhusLech Poznan
    8Sabah BakuKuPS
    9Ararat-ArmeniaShamrock Rovers
    10EgnatiaCelje
    11Vikingur ReykjavikH. Beer Sheva
    12LarneCrvena zvezda
    13Olympiacos PiraeusBye
    14ByeNijmegen
    15Royale Union SGBye
    16ByeBodo/Glimt
    17FenerbahceGornik Zabrze
    18Sturm GrazHearts
    19Sparta PragueBye
    20ByeLyon

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7Olympiacos PiraeusNijmegen
    8Royale Union SGBodo/Glimt
    9TBD #17TBD #18
    10Sparta PragueLyon
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