Nacional vs Arouca: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Liga Portugal Nacional - Arouca
Result
1:2
20/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga Portugal - Round 6
  • Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
Nacional - Arouca - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.471.11
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1510
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
35
Passes
78% (271/348)73% (183/249)
Yellow Cards
22
Red Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.471.11
xG on target (xGOT)
2.211.54
Total shots
1510
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
75
Shots outside the Box
85
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
35
Touches in opposition box
3015
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
70
Free Kicks
1810
Passes
78% (271/348)73% (183/249)
Long passes
44% (27/61)31% (15/49)
Passes in final third
62% (72/117)56% (41/73)
Crosses
30% (7/23)33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.101.08
Throw-ins
3016
Fouls
1018
Tackles
67% (8/12)50% (5/10)
Duels won
5652
Clearances
1644
Interceptions
84
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
1.542.21
Goals prevented
-0.461.21

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 4', Ramirez J. (Pen),
  • 5', Liziero 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 57', Fontan J. 🟨,
  • 62', Lee H. , Gozalbez P. ,
  • 66', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. (Pen),
  • 71', Nandin D. , Barbero I. ,
  • 71', Trezza A. , Mansilla B. ,
  • 74', 1 - 1, Popovic B. , Djouahra N. (A),
  • 78', Pablo Ruan , Witi ,
  • 79', Matheus Dias 🟥,
  • 82', Labidi C. , Ulisses ,
  • 84', Fukui T. , van Ee E. ,
  • 84', Djouahra N. , Puche ,
  • 85', Fontan J. 🟨,
  • 88', Leo Santos , Soares F. ,
  • 89', 1 - 2, van Ee E. , Barbero I. (A),
  • 90+6', Ramirez J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Nacional
41.1%
Draw
29.1%
Arouca
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.8% 29% 34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7% 29.1% 34.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
  • Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • Nacional - Arouca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.33
    (2.6)
    3.26
    (3.3)
    3.18
    (2.8)
    5%
    (4.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Nacional - Arouca?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 41.6%98.4%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
    • Nacional is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Knee Injury) Deivison (Inactive) Fernandes I. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Arouca: Sola A. (Inactive)
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Arouca were as follows:
    01.02.2025 Nacional - Arouca 1:2
    25.08.2024 Arouca - Nacional 1:0
    Latest results of Nacional
    13.09.2025 Porto - Nacional 1:0
    30.08.2025 Casa Pia - Nacional 0:2
    23.08.2025 Nacional - Sporting Lisbon 1:4
    17.08.2025 Rio Ave - Nacional 1:1
    09.08.2025 Nacional - Gil Vicente 0:2
    Latest results of Arouca
    14.09.2025 Arouca - Casa Pia 0:2
    23.08.2025 Arouca - Rio Ave 3:3
    17.08.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Arouca 6:0
    09.08.2025 Arouca - AVS 3:1
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Porto660015:11418
    2Benfica752013:4917
    3Sporting CP650118:41415
    4Moreirense750210:8215
    5Gil Vicente74128:4413
    6Famalicao63217:3411
    7Braga623111:659
    8Vitoria Guimaraes62227:9-28
    9Santa Clara72235:8-38
    10Arouca62229:14-58
    11Estrela71426:607
    12Casa Pia72146:11-57
    13Estoril61238:10-25
    14Tondela71244:11-75
    15Nacional61145:10-54
    16Alverca61146:11-54
    17Rio Ave60428:13-54
    18AFS70164:17-131

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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          Liga Portugal (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Nacional - Arouca?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
    portugalPortugalSport TV4
    ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
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