América Mineiro vs Avaí: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

02/09/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Mineirão (Belo Horizonte).

: Serie B Superbet - Round 24
Referee: Belence P. (Bra)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	0.35
Ball Possession
49%	51%
Total shots
12	17
Shots on target
4	4
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
4	3
Passes
83% (350/422)	86% (378/438)
Yellow Cards
1	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94	0.35
xG on target (xGOT)
1.27	0.30
Total shots
12	17
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
4	8
Blocked Shots
4	5
Shots inside the Box
5	5
Shots outside the Box
7	12
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
4	3
Touches in opposition box
10	10
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
10	8
Passes
83% (350/422)	86% (378/438)
Long passes
48% (31/65)	57% (36/63)
Passes in final third
73% (90/124)	68% (74/109)
Crosses
9% (1/11)	31% (5/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.29	0.32
Throw-ins
20	16
Fouls
9	12
Tackles
71% (10/14)	33% (4/12)
Duels won
43	39
Clearances
25	22
Interceptions
4	7
Errors leading to shot
1	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
0.30	1.27
Goals prevented
0.30	-0.73

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Romildo Del Piage ↓, Jamerson ↑,
34', 1 - 0, Arthur Sousa ⚽, Stenio (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mariano ↓, Rafa Barcelos ↑,
46', Joao Vitor ↓, Thayllon ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Kaua Diniz ⚽, Willian Bigode (A),
64', Arthur Sousa ↓, David Lopes ↑,
64', Felipe Amaral ↓, Aloisio ↑,
66', DG 🟨,
72', Kaua Diniz ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
76', Jamerson ↓, Alef Manga ↑,
76', Cleber ↓, Hygor ↑,
78', Elizari F. ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
81', Railan ↓, Leo Reis ↑,
90', Yago Souza 🟨,

Chances of winning

América Mineiro
39.7%

Draw
31.5%

Avaí
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.1%

29.6%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

30.1%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Avaí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Avaí, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

América Mineiro - Avaí Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (1.94)	3 ↓ (3.15)	3.3 ↓ (4.18)	6.4% (7.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for América Mineiro - Avaí?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Avaí will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 1.
América MG is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
In recent matches, Avaí has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
América MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
América MG could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, América MG won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.1:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.4:0.6).

How many head-to-head matches has América Mineiro won against Avaí?

América Mineiro has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Avaí won against América Mineiro?

Avaí has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between América Mineiro - Avaí were as follows:

26.04.2025 Avaí - América Mineiro 3:0

11.10.2024 Avaí - América Mineiro 2:2

25.06.2024 América Mineiro - Avaí 1:1

Latest results of América Mineiro

23.08.2025 Goiás - América Mineiro 1:0 ✺

15.08.2025 Amazonas - América Mineiro 2:2 ✺

09.08.2025 América Mineiro - Remo 0:1 ✺

02.08.2025 Botafogo SP - América Mineiro 2:1 ✺

27.07.2025 América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Avaí

25.08.2025 Avaí - Amazonas 1:2 ✺

19.08.2025 Operário Ferroviario - Avaí 0:0 ✺

10.08.2025 Avaí - Cuiabá 2:0 ✺

03.08.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí 1:1 ✺

28.07.2025 Avaí - Botafogo SP 5:0 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coritiba	30	15	8	7	32:19	13	53
2	Goias	31	14	9	8	35:28	7	51
3	Criciuma	31	14	8	9	40:28	12	50
4	Novorizontino	31	13	11	7	33:27	6	50
5	Athletico-PR	30	14	6	10	43:39	4	48
6	Chapecoense-SC	30	14	5	11	42:30	12	47
7	CRB	31	14	4	13	36:31	5	46
8	Cuiaba	31	12	10	9	37:35	2	46
9	Atletico GO	30	11	12	7	34:28	6	45
10	Remo	30	11	12	7	34:28	6	45
11	Avai	31	11	10	10	39:33	6	43
12	Vila Nova FC	31	10	10	11	31:33	-2	40
13	Operario-PR	31	10	9	12	32:33	-1	39
14	America MG	31	10	7	14	33:37	-4	37
15	Athletic Club	31	10	6	15	36:43	-7	36
16	Ferroviaria	30	8	12	10	34:39	-5	36
17	Botafogo SP	31	8	8	15	26:46	-20	32
18	Amazonas	31	7	10	14	33:47	-14	31
19	Volta Redonda	31	7	10	14	19:34	-15	31
20	Paysandu PA	31	5	11	15	26:37	-11	26

Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )

Which TV channels are streaming of América Mineiro - Avaí?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping